{"id":109749,"date":"2026-06-25T11:29:32","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T05:59:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/?p=109749"},"modified":"2026-06-25T11:36:27","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T06:06:27","slug":"weak-monsoon-and-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/weak-monsoon-and-el-nino\/","title":{"rendered":"Weak Monsoon and El Ni\u00f1o: Why India May Be Better Prepared This Time"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Weak Monsoon Latest News<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India has prepared contingency plans for more than 300 vulnerable districts as a weak monsoon and El Ni\u00f1o conditions threaten rainfall, crop output, and rural incomes.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Weak Monsoon in India<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The southwest monsoon is the backbone of India\u2019s agricultural and water economy. It provides about 70-75% of the country\u2019s annual rainfall during the June-September season and is essential for:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kharif crop sowing<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Groundwater recharge<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reservoir storage<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hydropower generation<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Drinking water supply<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A weak or delayed monsoon can reduce crop yields, lower farm incomes, weaken rural demand, and affect overall economic growth.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is especially serious because nearly half of India\u2019s farmland is still not irrigated, and a large share of the population depends directly or indirectly on farming.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><b>India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines normal monsoon rainfall as 96% to 104% of the long-period average of 87 cm<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For 2026, the IMD has forecast rainfall at around 90% of the long-period average, which would make it the weakest monsoon in more than a decade.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Why This Year\u2019s Situation Is Concerning<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So far, monsoon rainfall has been about 43% below average, and rainfall through the week ending July 2 is expected to remain weak.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">June, which was expected to be one of the relatively better rainfall months, has instead seen a deficit of more than 40%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At this time of year, the monsoon usually covers almost the entire country. This year, however, it has covered only around half of India\u2019s landmass, adding to concerns about kharif sowing.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The immediate worry is not only lower total rainfall, but also patchy spatial distribution and delayed advance. These factors can be damaging even if seasonal rainfall later improves.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>El Ni\u00f1o and Other Weather Factors<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although El Ni\u00f1o has emerged in the equatorial Pacific, it is not yet the main reason for the June rainfall deficit. Its impact on India usually comes with a lag of more than a month.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Other factors have played a bigger role so far:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak low-pressure systems<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak monsoon currents<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An unfavourable phase of the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/madden-julian-oscillation\/\" target=\"_blank\">Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The MJO is a moving system of winds and clouds that influences rainfall across the tropics.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During most of June, the rain-bearing part of the MJO was far from India, while the part affecting the Indian region actually suppressed rainfall. As it shifts, rainfall conditions may improve somewhat in early July.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Still, as the season progresses, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/el-nino\/\" target=\"_blank\">El Ni\u00f1o<\/a><\/strong>\u2019s influence is expected to strengthen, which may continue to weigh on monsoon performance.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>India\u2019s Contingency Planning<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To reduce the impact of weak rainfall, the government has prepared contingency plans for more than 300 districts. Of the 315 districts identified as vulnerable, the government has classified:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">111 districts as high priority, where less than one-fourth of the farmland is irrigated and<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">76 districts as medium priority<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">States have been advised to encourage farmers in rain-fed areas to shift from water-intensive crops to short-duration and less water-intensive crops, such as Pulses, Millets and Oilseeds.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The government has also asked states to repair and strengthen Ponds, check dams, Water-harvesting structures and other local water conservation systems.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These are meant to preserve soil moisture and improve water availability during dry spells.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Why India May Be Better Prepared This Time<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even though the threat is real, India may be better placed than before to handle a weak monsoon.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Stronger Water Position<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The past two years saw relatively good rainfall, so many of the country\u2019s major reservoirs are at healthier storage levels. This offers some protection against immediate water stress.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Better Rainwater Conservation<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A large share of work under the rural employment guarantee programme has gone into:<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rainwater harvesting<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Water storage<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Soil moisture conservation<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Local water infrastructure<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This has improved the country\u2019s ability to absorb rainfall shocks.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Improved Groundwater Situation<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Official reports suggest that groundwater conditions have improved in recent years in several areas, reducing vulnerability somewhat.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Lower Dependence on Hydropower<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The rapid rise of solar and wind power has reduced India\u2019s dependence on hydropower, helping conserve reservoir water for irrigation and drinking needs.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Better Preparedness in Farming<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are signs that early warnings of a weak monsoon may already have influenced farmer behaviour. In some regions, farmers have begun sowing kharif crops using pre-monsoon showers, while governments are pushing adaptive crop choices.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limits of Preparedness<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India is better prepared than it was a decade ago, but that does not mean the risks are minor. A poor monsoon can still:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reduce yields of rice, maize, cotton, soybean, and sugarcane<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hurt farm incomes<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weaken rural consumption<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Affect inflation, especially food inflation<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Create stress in rain-fed regions<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Also, around 75% of the country\u2019s area currently has more than 20% rainfall deficiency, which means the stress is widespread.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The key point is that India\u2019s resilience has improved, but it will still need timely planning, intervention, and support to limit the impact.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The Larger Lesson<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The current monsoon uncertainty highlights a deeper issue: under climate change, even \u201cnormal\u201d monsoons may come with greater regional and local variation.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In other words, the challenge is no longer only whether rainfall is above or below average, but also when, where, and how intensely it falls.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That is why the long-term solution lies in building greater climate resilience through:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Crop diversification<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Better irrigation efficiency<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Water harvesting<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Drought-resistant crops<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Improved forecasting and local planning<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Source:<\/b><strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/explained\/explained-climate\/why-india-may-be-better-prepared-this-time-to-withstand-a-poor-monsoon-10755920\/lite\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">IE<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/sci-tech\/science\/what-a-super-el-nino-would-mean-for-india-monsoon\/article71113743.ece\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">TH<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>India has prepared contingency plans for over 300 districts as a weak monsoon and El Ni\u00f1o threaten farm output.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":109757,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[60,22,59,8305],"class_list":{"0":"post-109749","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-upsc-mains-current-affairs","8":"tag-mains-articles","9":"tag-upsc-current-affairs","10":"tag-upsc-mains-current-affairs-tag","11":"tag-weak-monsoon","12":"no-featured-image-padding"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109749"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109749\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":109775,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109749\/revisions\/109775"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}