{"id":111669,"date":"2026-07-07T10:59:56","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T05:29:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/?p=111669"},"modified":"2026-07-07T11:03:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T05:33:15","slug":"weak-monsoon-and-el-nino-impact-on-indian-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/weak-monsoon-and-el-nino-impact-on-indian-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Weak Monsoon and El Nino &#8211; Impact on India&#8217;s Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Weak Monsoon Latest News<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal rainfall in July after a 40% deficit in June, raising concerns about the impact of a weak monsoon and a potential &#8220;super&#8221; El Nino on India&#8217;s economy.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Understanding the Monsoon and El Nino Connection<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The southwest monsoon (June-September) is the lifeline of India&#8217;s economy, delivering about 75% of the country&#8217;s annual rainfall.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It supports agriculture, replenishes reservoirs, recharges groundwater, and sustains hydropower generation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/el-nino\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">El Nino<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is a climate phenomenon marked by the warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, off the north-western coast of South America.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It has a tendency to suppress rainfall over the Indian region, though the impact usually comes with a lag of over a month.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A &#8220;super&#8221; El Nino refers to a particularly strong phase of this phenomenon, which can cause more severe rainfall deficits and prolonged droughts.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Historically, several of India&#8217;s worst droughts have coincided with El Nino years, including 1972, 1982, 2009, and 2015.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>How a Poor Monsoon Damages the Economy<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Impact on Agricultural Output<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Agriculture accounts for about one-fifth of India&#8217;s Gross Value Added (GVA) but employs 46% of the workforce.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nearly 55% of the population depends on agriculture directly or indirectly.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India came into the current kharif season from a strong position, foodgrain output in 2024-25 rose to 357.73 million metric tonnes, up 25.43 MMT from the previous year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A weak monsoon puts this momentum at risk, particularly for kharif crops like paddy, maize, pulses, and cotton.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Impact on Rural Incomes and Demand<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A weak monsoon hits rural income, denting aggregate demand across the economy.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Farm incomes could fall by up to 10% during a weak monsoon year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The rural non-farm sector, mainly non-traded services like construction, contracts when agriculture is affected.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Industries dependent on rural demand, including two-wheelers, tractors, and real estate in smaller towns, are among the first to feel the squeeze.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Food Inflation Pressures<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A weak monsoon threatens to push up food prices, fuelling inflation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The RBI has warned in its June bulletin that an adverse southwest monsoon may weigh on the domestic growth-inflation outlook.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Data up to June 18 already showed food inflation continuing to rise, with prices of edible oils, potatoes, onions, and tomatoes edging up.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Broader Economic Impact<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>GDP Growth Concerns<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to analyses by financial firms, a combined El Nino-plus-drought scenario could shave 20-65 basis points off India&#8217;s GDP growth.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Cropping Pattern Shifts<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Paddy acreage is expected to expand in Punjab, Haryana, and Bihar.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Maize acreage may decline as farmers shift to more remunerative crops.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pulses may be preferred due to lower cultivation costs and water requirements.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some farmers may choose not to plant vegetables at all.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Decisions are influenced by irrigation availability, MSP, procurement support, and market conditions.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Fertiliser and Supply Constraints<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pest attacks in weakened crops.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fertiliser supply constraints caused by the Iran conflict.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Union Cabinet approved a Rs. 41,533 crore Nutrient-Based Subsidy for phosphatic and potassic fertilisers for the kharif season, covering 28 grades.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>External Sector Impact<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If domestic output falls short:<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The government may release buffer stocks and increase imports.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This could widen the Current Account Deficit and put pressure on the rupee.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India&#8217;s agricultural exports, which have grown at a CAGR of 8.2% between FY20 and FY25 and contribute 12% to core exports, face a threat.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Lessons from Past El Nino Years<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The 2009 and 2015 monsoon failures illustrate how differently poor monsoons can affect the economy:<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>2009 and Its Aftermath<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Two subsequent years of rainfall stress.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All-India average irrigation cover less than 45%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Crop GVA contracted 2.5% and 3.2% in FY09 and FY10, respectively.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inflation reached double digits.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>2015 Experience<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Both 2014 and 2015 saw monsoon disruptions as El Nino moved from weak to strong.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Crop GVA contracted, but the impact on inflation was muted.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong>Reasons for controlled inflation included:\u00a0<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Proactive food management<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Restrained MSP hikes<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Global commodity price slump<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since 2000, of the 11 instances of below-normal or deficient monsoon at the all-India level, six were classified as El Nino years by the IMD, with five seeing deficient rainfall.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>India\u2019s Preparedness<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The government has identified vulnerabilities:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">315 districts are vulnerable to a poor monsoon.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">111 districts across 12 States are of primary concern due to poor irrigation facilities.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Reservoir Storage Status<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As of July 2:<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Storage levels across the 166 reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission stood at 47.725 BCM.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is lower than 78.077 BCM during the corresponding period last year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is also below the normal storage of 48.402 BCM for this time of year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the system can meet current requirements, a prolonged poor monsoon could strain it significantly.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Structural Preparedness<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Experts have raised concerns about India&#8217;s disaster preparedness:<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Irrigation is crucial for adapting to climate change-induced water stress.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India needs to move from crop insurance to ex-ante risk reduction.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Investment in drought-resistant, high-yielding crops remains inadequate.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Public investment in risk reduction is currently lacking.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A second successive bad weather year would be significantly more damaging.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Way Forward<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Short-Term Measures<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Strengthen buffer stocks to manage food supply.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monitor food inflation and take proactive measures.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Support farmers in vulnerable districts with contingency plans.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Manage fertiliser supply through diversified imports.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Medium-Term Reforms<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expand irrigation coverage, especially in rain-fed regions.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Promote water-efficient crops and precision agriculture.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Strengthen crop insurance with quicker settlements.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Enhance weather forecasting and early warning systems.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Long-Term Strategy<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Drought-proof the economy through structural reforms.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Move from crop insurance to ex-ante risk reduction.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Invest in drought-resistant, high-yielding crop varieties and ensure farmer access.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Modernise water storage and management infrastructure.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Diversify rural economy to reduce dependence on agriculture alone.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Strengthen public investment in agricultural R&amp;D and disaster preparedness.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Source:<\/b> <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/business\/Economy\/how-el-nino-could-damage-indias-economy-explained\/article71181850.ece\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">TH<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weak monsoon and a potential super El Nino may hit farm output, rural incomes, food inflation, and GDP growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":109757,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[60,22,59,8305],"class_list":{"0":"post-111669","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-upsc-mains-current-affairs","8":"tag-mains-articles","9":"tag-upsc-current-affairs","10":"tag-upsc-mains-current-affairs-tag","11":"tag-weak-monsoon","12":"no-featured-image-padding"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111669","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111669"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111669\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":111699,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111669\/revisions\/111699"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111669"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111669"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111669"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}