{"id":114070,"date":"2026-07-20T10:53:47","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T05:23:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/?p=114070"},"modified":"2026-07-20T10:53:47","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T05:23:47","slug":"el-nino-weak-monsoon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/el-nino-weak-monsoon\/","title":{"rendered":"El Nino, Weak Monsoon and India&#8217;s Rising Agricultural Imports"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Weak Monsoon Latest News<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India is witnessing below-normal monsoon rainfall and delayed kharif sowing, while forecasts indicate a strengthening <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/el-nino-la-nina-weather-patterns\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">El Nino<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, raising concerns over domestic production of pulses, oilseeds, and cotton and the possibility of record agricultural imports in 2025-26.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Background<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India&#8217;s agriculture remains heavily dependent on the Southwest Monsoon, which contributes nearly 70% of the country&#8217;s annual rainfall and supports the cultivation of most kharif crops.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Timely and well-distributed rainfall is essential for ensuring adequate acreage, higher crop yields, and stable food prices.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During 2025-26, however, rainfall has remained significantly below normal. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall in June was 38% below the Long Period Average (LPA), while cumulative rainfall till July 19 remained 23.8% below normal for the southwest monsoon season.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The weak monsoon has coincided with forecasts of a strengthening El Nino, a climatic phenomenon associated with warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Historically, El Nino has often been linked with deficient monsoon rainfall and drought-like conditions in India.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These developments have raised concerns that India may have to rely more heavily on imports of vegetable oils, pulses, and raw cotton if domestic production declines further.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Impact of Weak Monsoon on Kharif Sowing<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The rainfall deficit has already begun affecting the sowing of major kharif crops.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As of <\/span><b>July 10<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the total area sown under kharif crops was <\/span><b>16% lower<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than the corresponding period last year. Among major crops, the decline has been particularly severe for rain-fed crops:<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Pulses<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Overall pulse acreage declined by 23.3%, with significant reductions in:<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arhar (Tur): 30.3%\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Urad: 29.7%\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moong: 10.6%\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moth Bean: 28.1%\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Oilseeds<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oilseed sowing recorded a decline of 21%, including:<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Soybean: 15.9%\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Groundnut: 34%\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sesame: 46%\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Cotton<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cotton acreage also fell by 15.3%, largely due to delayed rainfall across major producing regions.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Agricultural experts note that while sowing windows for arhar and cotton remain open for some time, continued rainfall deficiency could significantly reduce final acreage and productivity.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>How El Nino Could Affect Agricultural Production<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The current rainfall deficit is a concern, but meteorologists believe the larger challenge lies in the possible strengthening of El Nino during the second half of the year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The US <\/span><b>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (NOAA) has projected:<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An 81% probability of El Nino intensifying into a very strong event during October-December.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A 97% probability that it will persist through March-April.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unlike a weak monsoon that mainly affects the kharif season, a strong El Nino can also lead to:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Higher winter temperatures<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reduced soil moisture<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Shorter and warmer winters<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lower reservoir replenishment<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This may adversely affect rabi crops such as Wheat, Mustard, Gram (Chana), Masoor and Potato.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thus, a prolonged El Nino could impact both major agricultural seasons, placing additional pressure on food production.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Record Agricultural Imports: Emerging Trends<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India has already witnessed a sharp rise in imports of key agricultural commodities.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During 2025-26 (April-March):<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vegetable oil imports reached a record 16.9 million tonnes, valued at approximately $19.5 billion.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Raw cotton imports increased to 1.1 million tonnes, worth nearly $1.9 billion.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pulse imports approached 6 million tonnes, the highest since 2016-17, valued at around $3.6 billion.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If domestic production is adversely affected by poor rainfall and El Nino, these import levels could rise even further.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Why Imports are Increasing<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Declining domestic production due to erratic weather<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rising demand from consumers and industries<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lower global commodity prices following record harvests in several exporting countries<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India&#8217;s structural dependence on edible oil imports, which already account for over 55-60% of domestic consumption<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Factors Mitigating the Risk<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the concerns, certain factors could help moderate the impact.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Comfortable Foodgrain Stocks<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Government foodgrain reserves remain significantly above buffer norms.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As of June 1, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) held:<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">68.3 million tonnes of rice\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">53.4 million tonnes of wheat\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These stocks are well above the prescribed buffer requirements and can help stabilise food supplies if production declines.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Pulse Buffer Stocks<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Government agencies reportedly possess over 4 million tonnes of pulses, including:<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Around 2 million tonnes of chana\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Approximately 0.6-0.7 million tonnes of arhar\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These reserves can be released into the market to contain prices if required.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Global Supply Situation<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unlike previous years, global supplies remain comfortable.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Following record harvests after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, international markets currently have abundant supplies of Wheat, Rice, Corn (Maize), Soybean and Palm oil.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fresh arrivals of arhar from Mozambique, Tanzania, Malawi, and Sudan, along with masoor imports from Canada and Australia, are expected in the coming months, helping ease domestic shortages.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Government&#8217;s Likely Response<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If monsoon conditions continue to deteriorate, the government may adopt several policy measures to ensure food security and contain inflation. Possible interventions include:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reducing import duties on edible oils, pulses, and raw cotton.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Releasing buffer stocks of pulses and foodgrains into the market.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Continuing or expanding duty-free imports of select commodities.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rationalising the ethanol blending programme by restricting diversion of sugarcane juice and molasses towards ethanol production, thereby increasing sugar availability.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Strengthening procurement and distribution through the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/public-distribution-system-pds\/\" target=\"_blank\">Public Distribution System (PDS)<\/a><\/strong>.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These measures would aim to moderate food inflation while ensuring adequate domestic availability of essential commodities.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Source:<\/b> <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/sci-tech\/energy-and-environment\/how-el-nino-could-damage-indias-economy-explained\/article71181850.ece\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">TH<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weak monsoon rainfall, delayed kharif sowing, and the possibility of a stronger El Ni\u00f1o could increase India&#8217;s imports.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":111700,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[60,22,59,8305],"class_list":["post-114070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-upsc-mains-current-affairs","tag-mains-articles","tag-upsc-current-affairs","tag-upsc-mains-current-affairs-tag","tag-weak-monsoon","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114070","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114070"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114070\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":114102,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114070\/revisions\/114102"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}