{"id":131008,"date":"2026-10-29T12:02:32","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T06:32:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/?p=131008"},"modified":"2026-10-29T12:02:32","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T06:32:32","slug":"cyclone-arnab-and-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/cyclone-arnab-and-el-nino\/","title":{"rendered":"Cyclone Arnab and El Ni\u00f1o: Why the Storm Intensified Rapidly"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><b>Cyclone Arnab and El Ni\u00f1o Latest News<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cyclone Arnab, the first cyclone of 2026 in the North Indian Ocean basin, made landfall on India\u2019s east coast, crossing the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam (Puducherry) coasts.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The \u201cvery severe\u201d cyclonic storm has since weakened into a \u201csevere\u201d cyclonic storm. It uprooted trees and power poles, triggered widespread power outages, and forced the evacuation of over 1,80,000 people across Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This raises a key question: what role did El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 the abnormal warming of Pacific Ocean surface waters \u2014 play in intensifying Arnab?<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>How Cyclone Arnab Formed and Intensified<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Began as a low-pressure system in the southeast Bay of Bengal on October 23.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Intensified into Cyclone Arnab by October 26.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rapidly escalated into a \u201csevere\u201d and then a \u201cvery severe\u201d cyclone \u2014 with wind speeds of 125-135 kmph.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Faster-than-forecast movement: The IMD advanced its landfall prediction from forenoon to early hours of Oct 28.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Landfall began around 1 am Oct 28, crossing between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam with wind speeds of 125-135 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph \u2014 cyclones cause maximum damage at the point of landfall, when the storm\u2019s \u201ceye\u201d crosses from sea to land.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>An Unusual Pattern: Sustained Intensity After Landfall<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Normally, cyclones lose strength upon hitting land due to friction and obstacles.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arnab defied this pattern \u2014 it maintained intensity for at least six hours after landfall before weakening to a \u201csevere\u201d storm.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As per IMD, Arnab remained stationary near Narsapur (Andhra Pradesh) and Yanam (Puducherry) since 4 am, slowing the landfall process (normally completed within ~6 hours, depending on cyclone speed\/size).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Heavy rainfall recorded: Visakhapatnam (217mm), Kalingapatam (147mm), Tuni (123mm), Kakinada (118mm), Machilipatnam (115mm), Gopalpur (94mm).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>The El Ni\u00f1o Connection<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2026\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o is forecast to be among the strongest since records began; the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of its potential impact on Asian cyclones.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Normal Pattern<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Odisha and West Bengal coasts are most prone to Bay of Bengal cyclones.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>During El Ni\u00f1o Years<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Cyclones instead tend to affect Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu \u2014 linked to where cyclones form and the paths they take.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Mechanism<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: El Ni\u00f1o causes abnormal warming in the equatorial and central Pacific, altering rainfall patterns, temperatures, and global wind patterns \u2014 including unusual warming in the North Indian Ocean.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As the southwest monsoon weakens, the monsoon trough (a shifting low-pressure band) moves southwards; <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">El Ni\u00f1o further alters wind patterns and air pressure near the equator<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Key Effect:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> During El Ni\u00f1o years, tropical cyclones form closer to the equator, making them more likely to move toward Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu rather than Odisha\/West Bengal.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Historical Precedent<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 2014 \u2014 another <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/difference-between-el-nino-and-la-nina\/\" target=\"_blank\">El Ni\u00f1o year<\/a><\/strong> \u2014 saw Cyclone Hudhud strike the Andhra Pradesh coast.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Net Effect:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Cyclones forming under these conditions tend to intensify rapidly and move faster, as seen with Arnab.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>The Science of Cyclone Fuel<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From July to September 2026, sea surface temperatures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region (used to measure El Ni\u00f1o intensity) were 2 to 2.8\u00b0C above normal \u2014 indicating significantly warmer oceans.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Cyclone-Favourable Conditions<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Ocean temperatures of 26\u00b0C or above, at depths of 50-100 metres.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tropical cyclones are fuelled by ocean heat \u2014 warmer oceans directly contribute to rapid intensification.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arnab reached peak \u201cvery severe\u201d intensity within a single day \u2014 though cyclone intensification is a highly complex process, influenced by <\/span><b>multiple factors<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">boundary layers, wind shear, convection, upper ocean circulation, and air-sea interaction<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Arnab\u2019s Continuing Path and Impact<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Heavy rainfall (64-115mm\/24hrs) will continue to batter northern Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coastal districts through Oct 29.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alert status: Odisha and Andhra Pradesh on \u2018red\u2019 alert; Chhattisgarh on \u2018orange\u2019 alert.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As Arnab recurves northward, its weakening remnants are expected to bring very heavy rainfall (115-204mm\/24hrs) over Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, eastern Madhya Pradesh, and eastern Uttar Pradesh over the next two days.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Conclusion<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cyclone Arnab exemplifies how large-scale climate phenomena like El Ni\u00f1o can reshape not just where cyclones strike, but how intensely and how quickly they do so.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">By warming the North Indian Ocean and shifting cyclone formation closer to the equator, this year\u2019s unusually strong El Ni\u00f1o redirected Arnab toward Andhra Pradesh rather than the traditionally more vulnerable Odisha-West Bengal coast, while also fuelling its rapid intensification and unusually sustained strength post-landfall.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As El Ni\u00f1o events are projected to grow more frequent and intense amid climate change, India\u2019s disaster preparedness strategy will need to account for this shifting cyclone geography \u2014 treating states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu as increasingly high-risk zones during El Ni\u00f1o years, rather than relying solely on historical vulnerability patterns.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Source:<\/b> <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/explained\/explained-climate\/cyclone-arnab-el-nino-role-rapid-intensification-andhra-pradesh-landfall-explained-10940036\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">IE<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.businesstoday.in\/india\/story\/cyclone-arnab-intensifies-rapidly-how-el-nino-and-global-warming-are-changing-storm-risks-564388-2026-10-29\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">BT<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cyclone Arnab and El Ni\u00f1o: explore how warmer ocean waters and changing wind patterns influenced the cyclone\u2019s rapid intensification, movement and landfall.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":131038,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[11196,60,22,59],"class_list":["post-131008","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-upsc-mains-current-affairs","tag-cyclone-arnab-and-el-nino","tag-mains-articles","tag-upsc-current-affairs","tag-upsc-mains-current-affairs","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131008","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=131008"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131008\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":131042,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131008\/revisions\/131042"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/131038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=131008"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=131008"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=131008"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}