{"id":132405,"date":"2026-11-10T12:24:13","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T06:54:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/?p=132405"},"modified":"2026-11-10T12:24:13","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T06:54:13","slug":"cop31-climate-overshoot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/cop31-climate-overshoot\/","title":{"rendered":"COP31 &#8211; Climate Overshoot, Carbon Budget and Climate Justice"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Climate Overshoot Latest News<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, has renewed debate over the concept of 1.5\u00b0C climate overshoot and the need for developed countries to fulfil their emissions-reduction and climate-finance commitments.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Understanding the 1.5\u00b0C Climate Overshoot<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The 2015 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/paris-agreement\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Paris Agreement<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> aims to limit global warming to well below 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to restrict it to 1.5\u00b0C.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Climate overshoot refers to a situation in which global temperatures temporarily exceed the 1.5\u00b0C threshold before potentially returning to that level by the end of the century through large-scale carbon dioxide removal.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The concept has gained prominence in climate negotiations. However, it raises concerns about whether future carbon-removal technologies and mitigation measures can realistically reverse the effects of excessive emissions.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The central argument is that the possibility of returning to 1.5\u00b0C should not become an excuse for delaying immediate emissions reductions.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>Developed Countries and Unfulfilled Climate Obligations<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Developed countries have historically contributed disproportionately to global greenhouse gas emissions. However, their domestic climate actions and financial commitments remain inadequate. Major Concerns include the following:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Continued fossil-fuel dependence<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Fossil fuels accounted for approximately 83% of primary energy consumption in the United States and 73% in the European Union in 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Expansion of fossil-fuel projects<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Countries including the US, Norway, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Australia have continued approving oil and gas exploration or extraction projects.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Inadequate climate finance<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Although developed countries reported mobilising approximately $137 billion in climate finance in 2024, its estimated actual value was only $33\u201345 billion. Around 65% of public finance was provided as loans.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Declining adaptation finance<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Adaptation finance fell to $26 billion in 2023, against an estimated annual requirement of $310-365 billion by 2035.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These developments highlight the gap between international climate commitments and their actual implementation.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>Scientific and Economic Challenges of Climate Overshoot<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/united-nations-environment-programme-unep\/\" target=\"_blank\">United Nations Environment Programme<\/a><\/strong><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (UNEP), in its report Limiting Overshoot: Navigating Exceedance of 1.5 Degrees Celsius and Pathways towards Return, examined the scale of carbon removal required to reverse temperature increases.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The report highlighted that reversing just 0.1\u00b0C of warming would require permanently removing approximately 220 billion tonnes of CO\u2082 from the atmosphere.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Current carbon-removal capacity remains inadequate:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Natural systems, particularly forests and soils, remove approximately 2.2 billion tonnes of CO\u2082 annually.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Direct air capture removes barely 2 million tonnes annually.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Scaling up direct air capture could cost approximately $600 per tonne of CO\u2082 removed.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moreover, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere does not necessarily reverse all the climatic consequences caused by its original emission.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This makes reliance on future carbon-removal technologies scientifically uncertain and economically challenging.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Climate Inequity and the Global South<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A major concern surrounding climate overshoot is the unequal distribution of its costs and responsibilities.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Large-scale carbon removal requires land, forests and other natural resources. However, much of the land identified for carbon-removal projects is located in developing countries.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Experts highlight that national climate pledges already rely on nearly 1.2 billion hectares of land for CO\u2082 removal, much of it in the Global South.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This creates several concerns:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Land-use conflicts<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Land required for carbon-removal projects may compete with agriculture, food production and local livelihoods.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Unequal responsibilities<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Developed countries may outsource their emissions-reduction obligations through carbon credits and projects in developing countries.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Development constraints<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Carbon-removal projects may restrict the availability of land and natural resources needed for industrialisation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Biodiversity and indigenous rights<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Large-scale land-use changes can affect ecosystems and communities dependent on forests and natural resources.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The European Union&#8217;s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), covering sectors such as iron, steel, cement and aluminium, also raises concerns about the impact of unilateral climate-related trade measures on industrial development in the Global South.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Way Forward: Returning to the Basics of Climate Action<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Experts argue that COP31 must prioritise measurable climate commitments rather than relying on emerging narratives and future technological possibilities.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Key priorities include:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Immediate emissions reduction<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Developed countries should undertake deep and sustained domestic emissions reductions and achieve net-zero well before 2050.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Net-negative emissions<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Countries with historically high emissions should pursue net-negative emissions within their own borders rather than relying excessively on developing countries&#8217; forests and land.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Predictable climate finance<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Developing countries require grant-based public finance rather than loans or uncertain private investment commitments.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Technology transfer<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: International negotiations must address intellectual property barriers that make clean technologies expensive for developing countries.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Carbon-budget accountability<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Countries should discuss the remaining global carbon budget and their respective historical contributions to emissions.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Safeguards for overshoot pathways: Any proposed carbon-removal strategy must account for scientific uncertainty, technical feasibility, food security, biodiversity and indigenous communities.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement is particularly relevant, as it recognises the obligation of developed countries to provide financial resources to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Source:<\/b> <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/sci-tech\/energy-and-environment\/at-cop31-the-overshoot-narrative-cannot-replace-climate-action\/article71677165.ece\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">TH<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Understand the climate overshoot debate at COP31, the global carbon budget, developed countries&#8217; climate obligations and the need for equitable climate finance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":132418,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[11400,60,22,59],"class_list":["post-132405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-upsc-mains-current-affairs","tag-climate-overshoot","tag-mains-articles","tag-upsc-current-affairs","tag-upsc-mains-current-affairs","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=132405"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132405\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":132450,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132405\/revisions\/132450"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/132418"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=132405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=132405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=132405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}