{"id":33313,"date":"2023-01-18T04:54:52","date_gmt":"2023-01-17T23:24:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/?p=33313"},"modified":"2025-04-19T21:11:34","modified_gmt":"2025-04-19T15:41:34","slug":"decline-in-chinas-population","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/decline-in-chinas-population\/","title":{"rendered":"Decline in China\u2019s Population"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><strong>What\u2019s in today\u2019s article?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Why in news?<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>News Summary: China\u2019s population drops for first time in 60 years<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>What is the significance of falling population of China?<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Why China is witnessing decline in its population?<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Where does India stand?<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>If India\u2019s TFR is already below-replacement, why is its population still increasing?<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>How much time does India have to reap its demographic dividend?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Why in news?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>China&#8217;s population fell last year for the first time in six decades.<\/li>\n<li>This is being termed as a historic turn that may mark the start of a long period of decline with profound implications for its economy and the world.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>News Summary: China\u2019s population drops for first time in 60 years<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>China&#8217;s National Bureau of Statistics reported a drop of roughly 850,000 people for a population of 1.41175 billion in 2022, the first dip since 1961.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/lg66lhunaptdyxmDeCRMpAPk8f9VcYsS-Pa3TdwfsOqJWCLMjSKAvV7Wpx6rqb5RhKuxdSDDxLHaRGdAv3EG-Iv8wbuVccnMs5oV9OiZv-8odP9qA6YGB1bU57LnbO_nTKAcCZcVbe-lHtNB_9AWKQ\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Image caption: Falling numbers<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><strong>What is the significance of falling population of China?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>India No. 1<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>China\u2019s population has begun to shrink. That possibly makes India the world&#8217;s most populous nation.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>Last year, UN experts put India&#8217;s population at 1.412 billion in 2022, but they didn&#8217;t expect the country to overtake China until 2023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>China will get old before it gets rich<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The recent trend shows that China&#8217;s population is shrinking faster than expected.<\/li>\n<li>Hence, demographers contend that China will get old before it gets rich.\n<ul>\n<li>This event will affect the economy due to drop in revenues and increase in government debt due to soaring health and welfare costs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>China will have to readjust its posture<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Based on the recent demographic trends, China will have to adjust its social, economic, defence and foreign policies.<\/li>\n<li>Shrinking labour force and downturn in manufacturing capacity will affect China\u2019s image as an economic powerhouse and the world\u2019s factory floor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Why China is witnessing decline in its population?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>One-Child Policy<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>One cause behind the fall in numbers in China is the one-child policy imposed between 1980 and 2015.\n<ul>\n<li>This policy limited the number of children couples could have to one.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>But as the proportion of those in the working-age population began reducing, the policy became a matter of concern.<\/li>\n<li>Hence, from 2016, all married couples were allowed to have a second child. Again, in 2021, China allowed couples to have three children.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>High cost of living<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>High education costs and costs of living have put many people off having children, even as a number of incentives have been announced by the government.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Zero-Covid policies<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>China&#8217;s stringent zero-Covid policies that were in place for three years have caused further damage to the country&#8217;s demographic outlook.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Where does India stand?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Population<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>India has not conducted an official headcount Census after 2011.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>But going by the United Nations\u2019 projections, its population stood at 1,417.2 million in 2022 (more than China\u2019s) and is expected to reach 1,428.6 million in 2023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>H2: Mortality and fertility<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The crude death rate (CDR) \u2014 the number of persons dying per year per 1,000 population \u2013 has fell down to 7.3-7.4\u00a0 for India in 2020.<\/li>\n<li>The total fertility rate (TFR) \u2014 the number of babies an average woman bears over her lifetime \u2014 came down to 2 during 2019-21.\n<ul>\n<li>A TFR of 2.1 is considered as replacement-level fertility.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>E.g., a woman having two children replaces herself and her partner with two new lives.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>Since all infants may not survive, the replaceme t TFR is taken at slightly above two.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><strong>If India\u2019s TFR is already below-replacement, why is its population still increasing?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The TFR is the average number of births by women aged 15-49 based on surveys for a particular period\/year.<\/li>\n<li>Populations can keep growing even with TFRs falling. De-growth requires TFRs to remain below replacement levels for extended periods.<\/li>\n<li>Hence, the effects of declining TFRs may reflect only after a couple of generations.\n<ul>\n<li>China\u2019s TFR dipped below replacement first in 1991 and its population peaked in 2021 (2022 saw the decline in China\u2019s population).<\/li>\n<li>It took over 30 years for below-replacement fertility rates to translate into negative population growth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><strong>How much time does India have to reap its demographic dividend?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>India has just begun seeing fertility rates fall to replacement levels, including in rural areas.<\/li>\n<li>But even with fertility rate declines, India\u2019s population is projected to expand and de-grow only after touching 1.7 billion about 40 years from now.<\/li>\n<li>More importantly, the share of working-age population in the overall population crossed 50% only in 2007, and will peak at 57% towards the mid-2030s.<\/li>\n<li>Hence, experts believe India has a window of opportunity well into the 2040s for reaping its demographic dividend, like China did from the late 1980s until up to 2015.\n<ul>\n<li>Demographic dividend refers to the growth in an economy that is the result of a change in the age structure of a country&#8217;s population.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>However, this is entirely contingent upon the creation of meaningful employment opportunities for a young population.<\/li>\n<li>In the absence of which, the demographic dividend can well turn into a demographic nightmare.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><strong>Q1<\/strong>)\u00a0<strong>What is meant by the demographic dividend?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\u00a0The demographic dividend is the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population&#8217;s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Q2)<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>What are the 4 demographic factors?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\u00a0When demographers attempt to forecast changes in the size of a population, they typically focus on four main factors: fertility rates, mortality rates (life expectancy), the initial age profile of the population (whether it is relatively old or relatively young to begin with) and migration.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Source:\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/explained\/china-population-india-national-bureau-of-statistics-population-crisi-mortality-fertility-8388112\/#:~:text=China&#039;s%20population%20shrinks%3A%20Mortality%20and%20fertility&amp;text=The%20crude%20death%20rate%20(CDR,7.4%20for%20both%20in%202020.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><u>China\u2019s population falls: How India\u2019s situation is different, and possibly better<\/u><\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.unfpa.org\/demographic-dividend#0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><u>United Nations Population Fund<\/u><\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/world\/china\/india-no-1-chinas-population-dips-for-first-time-in-60-years\/articleshow\/97070651.cms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><u>Times of India<\/u><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China saw its population fall by roughly 850,000 in 2022 \u2013 its first drop in six decades.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":33314,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-33313","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-upsc-mains-current-affairs","8":"no-featured-image-padding"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33313"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33313\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33314"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}