{"id":40526,"date":"2024-04-16T01:17:43","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T19:47:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/?p=40526"},"modified":"2025-10-15T12:30:46","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T07:00:46","slug":"monsoon-prediction-by-imd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/monsoon-prediction-by-imd\/","title":{"rendered":"Monsoon to be above Normal, predicts IMD"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>What\u2019s in today\u2019s article?<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Why in News?<\/li>\n<li>What are El Nino and La Nina?<\/li>\n<li>What is Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)?<\/li>\n<li>Prediction by IMD<\/li>\n<li>Factors indicating above normal rainfall<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Why in News?<\/h2>\n<p>India is likely to experience an \u201cabove normal\u201d monsoon rainfall between June and September this year. This was predicted by the <a href=\"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/india-meteorological-department-imd\/\" target=\"_blank\">India Meteorological Department (IMD)<\/a> in its long-range forecast.<\/p>\n<p>This is the first time in a decade that the IMD has predicted \u201cabove normal\u201d rainfall at the first stage itself, nearly 45 days ahead of the beginning of the four-month monsoon season.<\/p>\n<h2>What are El Nino and La Nina?<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>El Nino:<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.<\/li>\n<li>It is associated with lower than normal monsoon rainfall in India.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>La Nina:<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>A cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average SSTs, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.<\/li>\n<li>It is associated with a comparatively better monsoon rainfall in India.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Neutral:<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Neither<a href=\"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/what-is-el-nino-and-la-nina\/\" target=\"_blank\"> El Nino nor La Nina<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Often tropical Pacific SSTs are generally close to average.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>What is Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)?<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is defined by the difference in sea surface temperature between two areas (or poles, hence a dipole) \u2013 a western pole in the Arabian Sea (western Indian Ocean) and an eastern pole in the eastern Indian Ocean south of Indonesia.<\/li>\n<li>In scientific terms, the IOD is a coupled ocean and atmosphere phenomenon, similar to ENSO but in the equatorial Indian Ocean.<\/li>\n<li>A \u2018<strong>positive IOD<\/strong>\u2019 \u2014 or simply \u2018IOD\u2019 \u2014 is associated with <strong>cooler than normal sea-surface<\/strong> temperatures in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures in the western tropical Indian Ocean.<\/li>\n<li>The opposite phenomenon is called a \u2018<strong>negative IOD<\/strong>\u2019, and is characterised by <strong>warmer than normal SSTs<\/strong> in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and cooler than normal SSTs in the western tropical Indian Ocean.<\/li>\n<li>The IOD was identified as an independent system only in 1999.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Prediction by IMD<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Above normal rainfall in 2024<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>The country as a whole is expected to get 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA) rainfall.\n<ul>\n<li>All forecasts are percentages of long-period average (LPA). LPA is the average rainfall received in the past 50 years (currently, the average of 1971-2020 period).<\/li>\n<li>The rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of this 50-year average is considered <strong>normal<\/strong>; less than 90 per cent is considered <strong>deficient<\/strong>; 90-95 per cent is <strong>below normal<\/strong>; and 105-110 per cent is <strong>above normal<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Nearly the entire country, except some pockets in the northwest, east and northeast, was likely to get good rainfall.<\/li>\n<li><strong>India\u2019s normal rainfall<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>India, as a whole, normally receives 870 mm of rainfall during the monsoon season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"image image_resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/vajiram-prod.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/Forecast_of_seasonal_rainfall_533ab32303.webp\" alt=\"Forecast of seasonal rainfall\" \/><\/figure>\n<h2>Factors indicating above normal rainfall<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Forecast of \u2018good rainfall\u2019 is attributed to weakening of El Nino, eventual development of the La Nina conditions during the second half of the season (Aug-Sep) and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"image image_resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/vajiram-prod.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/Factors_indicating_above_normal_rainfall_b4680e8286.webp\" alt=\"Factors indicating above normal rainfall\" \/><\/figure>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>Q.1. What is sea surface temperature (SST)?<\/h3>\n<p>Sea surface temperature (SST) is the temperature of the ocean near the surface. It&#8217;s a key component of the climate system and a key indicator of global climate change. SST is measured using thermal infrared (IR) bands from optical satellites.<\/p>\n<h3>Q.2. What is India Meteorological Department (IMD)?<\/h3>\n<p>The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the country&#8217;s national meteorological service, responsible for weather forecasting, seismology, and other related subjects. The IMD was established in 1875, and its headquarters are in New Delhi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>LPA is the average rainfall received in the past 50 yrs, currently, the average of 1971-2020 period.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-40526","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-upsc-mains-current-affairs","7":"no-featured-image-padding"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40526","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40526"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40526\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}