{"id":65962,"date":"2025-10-01T11:40:24","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T06:10:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/?p=65962"},"modified":"2025-10-01T11:56:43","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T06:26:43","slug":"india-needs-double-growth-to-solve-jobs-crisis-morgan-stanley-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/india-needs-double-growth-to-solve-jobs-crisis-morgan-stanley-report\/","title":{"rendered":"India Needs Double Growth to Solve Jobs Crisis: Morgan Stanley Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><b>Unemployment in India Latest News<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Morgan Stanley (a global financial services firm) warns that <\/span><b>India must nearly double its growth rate<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to meet rising employment needs and tackle underemployment.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The analysis projects that a <\/span><b>7.4% average GDP growth<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is required to maintain stable unemployment, assuming steady labour participation.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If participation rises to 63%, growth of <\/span><b>9.3%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> would be necessary. To meaningfully reduce <\/span><b>underemployment<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, growth must reach <\/span><b>12.2%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Currently, GDP growth averages <\/span><b>6.1% over the past decade<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, with the RBI projecting <\/span><b>6.5% for this fiscal year<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, though recent data shows a stronger <\/span><b>7.8% in April-June 2025<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>India\u2019s Youth Unemployment Challenge<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite being the <\/span><b>fastest-growing major economy<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, India struggles with high youth unemployment, a concern flagged by Morgan Stanley in its latest note.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), the all-India unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in August, but <\/span><b>youth unemployment<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (ages 15\u201329) <\/span><b>stood much higher at 14.6%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In urban areas, the <\/span><b>female youth unemployment rate<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> surged to 25.7%, over 10 percentage points higher than that of young urban males, which fell to 15.6% from 17.1%.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This pushed overall urban youth unemployment down slightly to 18% from 19%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In rural India, female youth unemployment rose to 14.3%, while male youth unemployment declined to 12.6%. Both figures were at 13% in July.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>Demographic Pressure<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India\u2019s <\/span><b>median age is 28.4 years<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, making it one of the youngest countries globally.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, its youth unemployment rate is the <\/span><b>highest in the region<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, creating a mismatch between demographic advantage and job creation.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>Weak Employment Creation<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over the last two years, employment creation has been subdued, with only modest improvements recently.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Morgan Stanley cautions that GDP growth averaging 6.5% over the next decade\u2014though among the fastest globally\u2014will still fall short of creating sufficient jobs.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>The Workforce Surge Ahead<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even without rising participation rates, India\u2019s workforce is expected to grow by at least 8.4 crore in the next decade.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Without stronger job creation, this surge will deepen the unemployment and underemployment crisis.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Unemployment and Underemployment Crisis<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India faces a dual challenge of <\/span><b>high unemployment and widespread underemployment<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Youth unemployment has surged to <\/span><b>17.6%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the highest in South Asia, while a return to agriculture has pushed <\/span><b>farm employment to a 17-year high<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Much of this reflects underemployment, where skills and time remain underutilised.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India\u2019s <\/span><b>broad definition of employment<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2014 counting even one hour of work a week, including unpaid family labour \u2014 further <\/span><b>masks the true scale of labour underutilisation<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>Poverty Adds to the Challenge<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With about <\/span><b>603 million Indians living below the $3.65 per day income threshold<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the urgency of job creation and economic transformation is amplified.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Solving unemployment and underemployment is not just an economic priority but also a <\/span><b>social imperative<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to prevent rising tensions and ensure inclusive growth.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Asia\u2019s Growing Youth Unemployment Crisis<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Youth unemployment is not unique to India; it is a <\/span><b>regional challenge across Asia<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Morgan Stanley, Asia\u2019s youth unemployment rate stands at <\/span><b>16%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, far higher than the <\/span><b>10.5% in the US<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For the three most populous economies \u2014 <\/span><b>China, India, and Indonesia<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2014 the problem is especially severe.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite falling headline unemployment rates, joblessness among youth has remained stubbornly high.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The challenge is expected to intensify with the growing adoption of <\/span><b>artificial intelligence (AI)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which could displace jobs unless reforms boost investment and reskilling.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Way Forward for India<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The report warns that if joblessness worsens, governments may need to adopt <\/span><b>redistributive measures<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to maintain social stability.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For India, while reforms have been undertaken to promote growth, a <\/span><b>bigger push<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is needed in the <\/span><b>industrial and export sectors<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The report highlights that every <\/span><b>manufacturing export job creates two additional jobs<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in related fields like transport and logistics.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yet, <\/span><b>India\u2019s share in global exports is just 1.8%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, far below its weight in GDP and working-age population \u2014 showing significant untapped potential for job creation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The report stresses urgent reforms in <\/span><b>industrial and export growth, infrastructure expansion, and workforce skill upgrades<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Without stronger investment in <\/span><b>advanced manufacturing and technology<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, India risks falling behind in providing meaningful work for its young population.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Source:<\/b> <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/business\/india-12-gdp-growth-solve-jobs-problem-underemployment-10280067\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">IE<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesnownews.com\/business-economy\/economy\/can-indias-economy-grow-quickly-enough-to-stop-youth-unemployment-heres-what-morgan-stanley-suggests-article-152921327\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">TN<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.business-standard.com\/economy\/news\/india-must-grow-twice-as-fast-to-avoid-jobs-trap-warns-morgan-stanley-125093000428_1.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">BS<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Morgan Stanley warns India must double growth to 12.2% to tackle unemployment and underemployment, stressing urgent reforms in exports, industry, and skills.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":66010,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[60,3002,22,59],"class_list":{"0":"post-65962","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-upsc-mains-current-affairs","8":"tag-mains-articles","9":"tag-unemployment-in-india","10":"tag-upsc-current-affairs","11":"tag-upsc-mains-current-affairs","12":"no-featured-image-padding"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65962"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65962\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66010"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}