{"id":69681,"date":"2025-10-22T11:20:36","date_gmt":"2025-10-22T05:50:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/?p=69681"},"modified":"2025-10-24T16:43:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T11:13:08","slug":"indias-post-diwali-farm-challenge-from-tamed-inflation-to-farmer-distress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/indias-post-diwali-farm-challenge-from-tamed-inflation-to-farmer-distress\/","title":{"rendered":"India\u2019s Post-Diwali Farm Challenge: From Tamed Inflation to Farmer Distress"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><b>Farm Challenge Latest News<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Retail food inflation has stayed <\/span><b>negative for four consecutive months<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> till September 2025, a sharp reversal from the 8.5% annual rise seen between July 2023 and December 2024.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The decline stems from improved supplies following two consecutive good monsoons that offset the El Ni\u00f1o-driven drought of 2023\u201324, along with weak price sentiment in agricultural markets that has kept food prices subdued.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This article highlights India\u2019s emerging post-Diwali farm challenge, where a sharp turnaround from high food inflation to falling crop prices has shifted the stress from consumers to farmers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>India Faces a Cereal Glut as Wheat and Rice Stocks Surge<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India is witnessing a major supply glut in cereals, particularly wheat and rice, driven by record production and strong procurement.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As of October 1, wheat stocks in government godowns stood at 320.3 lakh tonnes, the highest in four years and 1.5 times the required buffer.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The rice situation is even more extreme, with stocks 4.4 times higher than needed for public distribution and emergency reserves.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The oversupply is expected to intensify post-Diwali as the new kharif crop enters the market.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Farmers have sown a <\/span><b>record 44.2 million hectares under rice<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, up from 43.6 million hectares last year, while maize acreage has jumped from 8.4 to 9.5 million hectares.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Consequently, maize prices have dipped to Rs 2,000\u20132,100 per quintal in states like Karnataka and Haryana, below both last year\u2019s prices and the MSP of Rs 2,400, signalling a supply-driven price slump in the cereal market.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Why Soyabean Prices Are Falling Despite Lower Production<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India\u2019s soyabean production in 2025 has fallen to a five-year low of 105.4 lakh tonnes (lt), down 16.3% from 125.8 lt in 2024, according to the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The drop is due to <\/span><b>reduced acreage<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (12 million hectares vs 13 mh last year) and <\/span><b>lower yields<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2014 from 1,063 kg to 920 kg per hectare.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Excess rainfall, waterlogging, and diseases like yellow mosaic virus and aerial blight<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> have damaged crops, producing smaller grains and yield losses.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>Global Factors Driving Weak Sentiment<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Major producers \u2014 Brazil, the U.S., and Argentina \u2014 have reported bumper harvests, flooding global markets.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As a result, soyabean meal export prices at Indian ports dropped from $490 per tonne (Sept 2024) to $398 (Sept 2025), while export volumes fell from 9.1 lt to 8.4 lt year-on-year.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>Competition from DDGS in Livestock Feed<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Demand for soyabean meal is also being squeezed by cheaper substitutes like DDGS (Distiller\u2019s Dried Grains with Solubles) \u2014 a byproduct of ethanol production from maize and rice.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sold at Rs 15\u201317\/kg, DDGS competes directly with soyabean meal (Rs 31.5\/kg) in the poultry and cattle feed market.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Consequently, domestic soyabean meal consumption for feed has fallen from 67 lt in 2022\u201323 and 66 lt in 2023\u201324 to 62 lt in 2024\u201325.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In essence, despite low output and stocks, soyabean prices remain depressed due to global oversupply, weak export demand, and domestic competition from cheaper feed substitutes<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>The Post-Diwali Challenge: From Food Inflation to Farmer Distress<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After battling high food inflation through 2023 and 2024, which eroded household purchasing power, the government has now successfully stabilised prices.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, this has led to an unexpected reversal \u2014 the pressure has shifted from consumers to farmers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>Farmers Hit by Falling Prices<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Currently, prices of most kharif crops \u2014 including maize, soyabean, cotton, bajra (pearl millet), arhar (pigeon pea), and moong (green gram) \u2014 are trading below their Minimum Support Prices (MSPs).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Market sentiment remains bearish, despite strong production supported by ample monsoon rains, recharged aquifers, and well-filled reservoirs, which also bode well for the upcoming rabi (winter-spring) season.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>A Likely Policy Shift: From Consumer to Farmer Focus<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With farmers now bearing the brunt of low prices, the government may be forced to recalibrate its policy stance.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Likely steps include:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Restoring import duties on cotton and yellow\/white peas to protect domestic producers.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increasing MSP procurement of pulses and oilseeds under the price support scheme to stabilise farmer incomes.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Conclusion<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Having tamed <\/span><b>food inflation<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the government now faces a <\/span><b>post-Diwali farm crisis<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> marked by <\/span><b>oversupply and price crashes<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The focus may shift toward <\/span><b>supporting farmers<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to prevent prolonged <\/span><b>rural distress<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and maintain <\/span><b>agricultural stability<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the months ahead.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Source:<\/b><strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/explained\/explained-economics\/post-diwali-farm-sector-challenge-inflation-10316639\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">IE<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>India faces a post-Diwali farm crisis with crop prices below MSPs despite record production. Government may shift focus from consumers to farmers to prevent rural distress.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":70020,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[3338,60,22,59],"class_list":{"0":"post-69681","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-upsc-mains-current-affairs","8":"tag-farm-challenge","9":"tag-mains-articles","10":"tag-upsc-current-affairs","11":"tag-upsc-mains-current-affairs","12":"no-featured-image-padding"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69681"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69681\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/70020"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vajiramandravi.com\/current-affairs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}