A New Arabian Tale: Strategic Convergence Between the US, UAE and India

Why in News?

• Recently, a meeting was held in Riyadh between the Saudi Crown Prince (MBS) and NSAs of the US, UAE, and India.
• The meeting highlights the convergence of strategic interests of the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia and India in the Gulf region and new possibilities of strategic alliances for India.

 

 India's Traditional Approach to the Middle East

• Nehruvian foreign policy was of the proposition that Delhi must either oppose Washington or keep its distance from it in the Middle East.
• There was a prevalent notion that Delhi cannot be visibly friendly to Israel.
• Any proposition that India would sit down with the US, Israel and the Sunni Kingdoms of the Gulf would have been dismissed as a fantasy just a few years ago.

 

Result of India’s Traditional Approach

• Pakistan became the lynchpin of the Anglo-American strategy to secure the “wells of (oil) power” in the Gulf.
• Pakistan was a key part of the Baghdad Pact created in 1955 along with Britain, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey to counter the Communist threat to the region and became strategically relevant.
  • However, Pakistan does not figure in the current strategy to connect the Gulf with the Subcontinent.

 

New developments in the Gulf Geopolitics

• Decline of Pakistan’s Strategic Relevance
  • Pakistan in the 1950s was widely viewed as a moderate Muslim nation with significant prospects for economic growth.
  • Pakistan’s continuing strategic decline makes it a lot less relevant to the changing geopolitics of the Gulf.
  • It has now locked itself into a self-made trap of violent religious extremism and its political elite is utterly unprepared to lift the nation economically.
  • To make matters more complicated, Pakistan has drifted too close to China.
  • As the US-China confrontation sharpens, Islamabad is tempted to align with China (and boost its “all-weather partnership” with Beijing) and Russia in the region.
• Strategic Convergence of the US and India in the Gulf
  • Contrary to the widespread perception, the US will not abandon the Middle East. But it certainly is recalibrating its regional strategy.
  • In a speech last week in Washington, US NSA Jake Sullivan highlighted several elements of the new US approach.
  • Two of them stand out with respect to India’s interest.One is about building new partnerships, including with Delhi, and the other is about the integration of the Arabian Peninsula into India and the world.
  • Also, India’s self-imposed ideological taboo was broken with the formation of a four-nation grouping, unveiled in October 2021; called I2U2 that brought the US, India, Israel, and the UAE together.
  • Delhi is also doubling down with a new quadrilateral with the US, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

India’s Current Foreign Policy w.r.t Gulf Region

• Improved relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE
  • The current dispensation transformed India’s uneasy relations with the two Arabian kingdoms, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, into solid strategic partnerships.
  • The Prime Minister has received the highest civilian honour from the UAE and Saudi Arabia for his effort to improve bilateral relations.
• Strategic Trilateral Relationship with France and the UAE
  • France has emerged as an important partner in the Gulf and the Western Indian Ocean.
  • India now has a trilateral dialogue with Abu Dhabi and Paris.
• The prospect of Delhi and London working together in the Gulf is very likely. Britain enjoys much residual influence in the Gulf.

 

Can China's influence in the region affect US led Strategic alliances?

• Beijing is now the second most important power in the world, and its diplomatic and political influence in the region will continue to rise.
• However, Beijing is nowhere near displacing Washington as the principal external actor in the Gulf.
• Seen in conjunction with Britain, the Anglo-American connection to the Arabian Peninsula dates to the late 16th century.
• The Anglo-Saxon powers have no desire to roll over and cede the Gulf to Beijing.

 

The New Arabian Tale

• Apart from all strategic alliances, China and the US, the story is really about the rising power of the Arabian Peninsula, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
• The Gulf kingdoms have accumulated massive financial capital and embarked on an ambitious economic transformation that will reduce their dependence on oil over the long term.
• They have also begun to diversify their strategic partnerships, develop nationalism rather than religion as the political foundation for their states, promote religious tolerance at home, and initiate social reform.

 

Significance of India's character in the New Arabian Tale

• The New Arabian Tale will open new possibilities for India’s economic growth and Delhi’s productive involvement in promoting connectivity and security within Arabia and between it and other connected regions; including Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean and the Subcontinent.
• The engagement should also help India overcome the dangerous forces of violent religious extremism within the Subcontinent.

 

Conclusion

• The new opportunities in Arabia and the emerging possibilities for partnership with the US and the West position India to rapidly elevate its own standing in the region.
• However, to seize the opportunity India will have to modernise its strategic discourse on the Gulf and there should be concerted efforts to change the outdated narratives on the Arabian Peninsula.

 

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Q) What's the purpose of I2U2? 

The group desires to mobilise private sector capital and technologies to solve practical, shared challenges. Trade and transit infrastructure, clean energy, waste treatment and critical and emerging technologies were all identified as priorities. Largely missing, however, was any overarching, principled vision of what unites these four states in partnership.

 

Q) Why is the Middle East important for Indian foreign policy? 

The Middle East is an important strategic region for India with profound geopolitical and geo-economic significance. India and the region share deep civilizational contacts, cultural exchange and historical linkages. In modern times both have shared colonial past and struggles for independence. The geopolitics of energy security makes the region, particularly the Gulf crucial for India’s geo-economics and pursuit of economic development. India is already 3rd largest consumer of oil and largely dependent on the supply from the region. Thus, the stability of the region for assured energy supply determines the priority of Indian policy towards the region. The economic diversification drive in the Gulf economies (Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030) has created an accelerating pace of engagement.

 

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Source: The Indian Express