The Future Is Eurasia: With G20-IMEC Plan, The Global Order Shifts to Eurasia

Why in News?

• At the 18th G20 Summit in New Delhi, US President and the leaders of India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, France, Germany, Italy, and the European Commission, unveiled the multi-modal India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC).
• This is an ambitious project facilitating India’s connection to the Arabian Gulf via sea lanes, and a northern route, linking Saudi Arabia to Europe through Jordan and Israel. 

Significance of India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC)

• Embodiment of A Collective Vision
  • The combined GDP of the IMEC nations (including the EU as a bloc) is roughly $47 trillion, representing about 40 per cent of the world’s total GDP.
  • The IMEC embodies a collective vision for the broader Eurasian supercontinent, extending beyond trade, energy, and digital resilience.
• A Path Towards Interlinked Trans-oceanic System: The Corridor aims to forge a path towards an increasingly interwoven transoceanic system that extends from the Mediterranean region through West Asia to the expansive Indo-Pacific.
• Acknowledgment of Rising Non-Western Powers by the West
  • The IMEC serves as an acknowledgment, on the part of the US and EU, of the rising non-Western powers and the undeniable shift of the economic and geopolitical centre of the world further east.
  • The IMEC underscores the necessity of ceding more substantial global leadership roles to India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, the actors at the forefront of reconfiguring the future of the economic and geopolitical system in Eurasia.
  • Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, New Delhi, and other emergent powers in Eurasia will wield substantial sway in recalibrating the broader power dynamics across the supercontinent.

How Will IMEC Shift the Global Order to Eurasia?

• By Forging Normalised Relations Between Hostile Nations
  • An underappreciated aspect of the IMEC is how its mere existence aside from the design and operational challenges represents another attempt to bring Saudi Arabia and Israel together.
  • The effort to bring them together under a single transcontinental framework contributes to ongoing US-backed efforts to secure a normalisation agreement between the two nations.
• By Promoting a Balanced Power Structure in Eurasia
  • The IMEC embodies the US’s Eurasian strategy in the post-US hegemony era, with the US aiming to shape a balanced power structure across the broader Eurasian landscape.
  • The goal is to prevent a loose coalition of states such as China, Russia, and Iran from dominating the supercontinent by strengthening the profiles of countries like India, Saudi Arabia, and Japan.
  • This will enable these countries to project economic and geopolitical influence and actively contribute to a balanced Eurasian power structure.
• By Europe’s Acceptance of a Multipolar Reality Outside Europe
  • For Europe specifically, the Corridor symbolises the bloc’s most ambitious effort to attain geopolitical significance and unity outside the European mainland in the new multipolar reality by embracing this transoceanic framework.
  • Italy, Germany, and France seek to align their efforts with the United States and Asian powers.
  • They want to go beyond occasional maritime exercises in the Indo-Pacific as they work to integrate their economic systems into high-growth markets in the East.

How Will IMEC Serve Indian Geopolitical Interests?

• Will Enable Increased Strategic Engagement with the Arab World
  • The Indian govt now has an opportunity to build enduring connectivity between India and Arabia.
  • The current project will restore India’s role as a driver in shaping regional connectivity.
• Will Render Pakistan’s Veto Redundant
  • Since the 1990s, Islamabad was adamant in its refusal to let India gain access to land-locked Afghanistan and Central Asia.
  • Once this project is successful, India will have another route to reach Central Asia and Europe from there.
• Further Commitment of US-India Cooperation in the Middle East
  • The conventional wisdom in Delhi said India and the United States might work together in the Indo-Pacific but had little in common in the Middle East.
  • That myth was broken when India and the US joined hands with Israel and the UAE to set up the I2U2 forum to develop a few joint economic projects.
  • The India-Arabia-Europa corridor could turn out to be far more consequential.

IMEC and The China Factor

• The US and EU may be tempted to portray the IMEC as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
• For Delhi, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh; either existing members of (in the case of India) or newly admitted to (in the case of Saudi Arabia and the UAE) the BRICS group, the IMEC signifies the rise of a West Asian system.
• Within this system, India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Egypt are progressively integrating beyond energy, remittances, and ideology.

Way Forward

• The Symbolism of Corridor Launch Should Not be Swayed by the West
  • The symbolism of the Corridor’s launch in New Delhi and the noticeable absence of Russia and China at the Summit should not be overlooked.
  • It is important to reiterate that this symbolism should not lead the US and EU to draw the wrong conclusions.
• Need for a Balanced Approach
  • For India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others, achieving a balanced Eurasian structure does not mean forming a dual containment coalition against China and Russia.
  • The Russian President’s statement that the IMEC is an addition to Russia’s North-South project should be interpreted in this context.
• Work Towards Success of IMEC
  • The success of the IMEC depends on several critical factors. These include conducting a realistic assessment of each nation’s rationale for participation, advancing the project beyond a MoU, addressing logistical, etc.
  • Also, it depends on operational challenges, and prioritising electricity, digital connectivity, and clean hydrogen at the initial stages of the Corridor.
• Address the Security Concern: The IMEC nations should also be bold in proactively addressing potential security challenges arising from increased Eurasian connectivity. 

Conclusion

• The launch of the IMEC marks a significant milestone in the ongoing global shift of power towards the East.
• It signifies the commitment of the US, Europe, and emerging powers such as India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to promoting a more balanced and interconnected Eurasian order.
• If the IMEC proves successful, it could serve as a blueprint for other transcontinental initiatives aiming to establish a more balanced Eurasian structure.

Q1) How will IMEC impact India’s external trade?

The IMEC is expected to increase efficiencies, reduce costs, enhance economic unity, generate jobs, and lower greenhouse gas emissions. The cross border shipping and railways corridor will reduce logistics costs as well as boost trade in goods and services between the UAE, Saudi Arabia, India and Europe. For instance, the destination for India’s engineering exports are primarily the Middle East and Europe. 

Q2) How will IMEC help in countering China?

The mega project is an ambitious effort by Washington to counter China's Belt and Road initiative that sought to connect more of the world to the country's economy. Lately, China's BRI has been facing a series of troubles due to rising loan defaults and slowing down on investments. India was also concerned about China’s BRI. In the form of IMEC, India has finally found a formula to connect to both the Arab world and Europe.

Source: The Indian Express