Five Years After Covid-19 - Shifts in India's Migration Landscape

Context:

• The Covid-19 pandemic caused severe disruptions in migration, halting mobility and exacerbating migrant vulnerabilities.
• Five years later, migration patterns have largely reverted to pre-pandemic trends, but new challenges and emerging factors such as climate change and economic transformations continue to shape migration in India.

Reverse Migration During Covid-19:

• The pandemic triggered an unprecedented urban-to-rural reverse migration.
• Government estimates suggest a net reverse migration of 44.13 million during the first lockdown and 26.3 million during the second.

Migrants faced wage theft, food insecurity, lack of healthcare and education, discrimination, and brutality.

Many families dependent on remittances suffered severe economic strain.

Return to Urban Migration and Rural Economic Challenges:

• The rural economy was unable to absorb the returning workforce.
• MGNREGA provided limited relief but could not sustain long-term employment.
• Factors driving return migration to urban areas:
  • Rural distress and low wages
  • Urban aspirations and economic opportunities
  • Climate change significantly impacts agriculture and allied activities, contributing to distress and aspirational out-migration (as observed in Odisha by FAO and IOM studies).

Urban Migration Trends and Government Initiatives:

• Urbanization is projected to continue, with 40% of India’s population expected to live in cities by 2026.
• Government initiatives like Smart Cities Mission (aims to develop 100 cities into modern urban hubs) encourage migration for economic growth.

Impact on International Migration:

• Indian emigrants faced job losses, wage cuts, poor living conditions, and health risks.
• Despite hardships, remittances remained resilient, sustaining many Indian households.
• Migration trends post-pandemic:
  • Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries remain key destinations.
  • Europe is attracting more skilled migrants, with Indians being top recipients of the EU Blue Card in 2023.
  • African nations are emerging as migration hubs for employment in IT, manufacturing, and healthcare, though challenges persist (e.g., 47 Jharkhand workers stranded in Cameroon).
  • Healthcare workers from India continue to be in high demand globally.
  • Student migration surged post-pandemic:
    • The Kerala Migration Survey 2023 indicates that the number of student emigrants from Kerala nearly doubled from 1.29 lakh in 2018 to 2.5 lakh in 2023.
    • The RBI data shows that outward remittances for studies abroad (peaking at $3,171 million in 2021) reflected a sharp increase in spending on international education.
    • We have also witnessed the student crisis during the Russia-Ukraine war.

Challenges in Migration Governance and Policy Interventions:

• Data gaps and the need for improved migration governance:
  • 2021 Census delay has hindered accurate assessment of post-pandemic migration trends.
  • Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2020-21 recorded a 28.9% migration rate, a marginal increase from 28.5% in NSS 64th Round (2007-08), but does not reflect long-term trends.
  • Lack of a comprehensive Indian emigrant database limits policy effectiveness.
• Social security and welfare initiatives:
  • e-Shram portal (2021) aims to create a National Database of Unorganised Workers (NDUW) and provide social security benefits, including insurance and access to subsidised food grains.
    • However, it faces issues due to lack of awareness and digital access.
  • One Nation One Ration Card (ONORC) scheme (2018) helps migrants access PDS benefits, but many still remain excluded.

The Kerala Model and Future Policy Directions:

• Kerala Migration Surveys (every five years since 1998) have significantly improved migration policy formulation.
• States like Odisha, Goa, Punjab, Gujarat, Jharkhand, and Tamil Nadu have replicated this model.
• Expanding this approach nationwide would enhance migration governance and aid in better policy responses.

Conclusion:

• Five years after the Covid-19 crisis, India’s migration landscape is evolving.
• While urban migration is resuming and international emigration diversifying, new factors like climate change, global economic shifts, and policy interventions are influencing movement patterns.
• Strengthening migration governance through data-driven policy reforms and improved social security mechanisms is crucial for ensuring migrant welfare and economic stability.

Q1. What were the key factors that contributed to the large-scale reverse migration in India during the Covid-19 pandemic?

Ans. The reverse migration was driven by job losses, wage theft, food insecurity, lack of healthcare access, and discrimination.

Q2. How has climate change influenced migration patterns in India post-pandemic?

Ans. Climate change has exacerbated rural distress by impacting agriculture and allied activities, leading to increased aspirational and distress-driven migration to urban centers.

Q3. What are the major post-pandemic shifts in India's international migration trends?

Ans. While migration to GCC countries remains strong, there is a rising trend of highly skilled migration to Europe and Africa due to economic opportunities.

Q4. How effective have government initiatives like the e-Shram portal and ONORC scheme been in addressing migrant welfare?

Ans. While these schemes aim to provide social security and food security to migrants, challenges such as lack of awareness, digital access barriers, and exclusion of many beneficiaries limit their effectiveness.

Q5. Why is improving migration data governance crucial for policy formulation in India?

Ans. The delay in the 2021 Census, gaps in emigrant data, and the lack of updated migration statistics hinder effective policy planning and migrant welfare interventions. 

Source: IE