How We Can Achieve Growth With Balance

Why in news?

• The article reflects upon the rapid rise in global population while discussing transition in demographics in religion and regions across globe and underlines the necessity to achieve growth with balance.

 

Global overview

• Present trajectory: On 15^th November 2022, the world population will cross eight billion, it crossed six billion in October 1999 and we added another two billion in two decades.
• Future course: Demographers at the UN predict that the planet will have 9.8 billion people in 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.
• Burgeoning occupiers in Africa: In the last century, countries in the developing world, including in Africa, continue to register higher population growth rates.
  • It is projected that by 2100, close to 40 per cent of the world population will be residing in Africa. That is every second person in the world will be an African.
• The Middle East demographics: The countries in the Muslim world are registering higher population growth rates of 1.5 per cent, compared to the rest at 0.7 per cent.
  • The Muslim population in the world is expected to reach 2.2 billion by 2030, according to the PEW Research Foundation.
  • Egypt, the largest Arab country, had a population of 25 million in 1960, almost equal to that of South Korea. Six decades later, while South Korea’s population doubled, Egypt’s grew by more than four times to cross 110 million.

 

India’s prospects

• Ensuing boom: India will be the world’s most populous country by 2050 with its population crossing 1.65 billion.
• Fall back: India will peak in that decade and thereafter, the numbers will start to recede and settle at 1.1 billion by 2100.
• Religion stats: By 2050, India is expected to have over 1.3 billion Hindus, while the Muslim population is likely to reach 311 million, making it the country with the largest Muslim population.
• Comparison with China: China will see a decline in that year and its population will reduce to 1.3 billion.

 

Population concerns are ill-founded

• Sinking growth: Rachel Snow, Branch Chief of Population and Development at the UN World Population Fund, noted that the world population growth is slowing down with more than 50 countries registering a population decline.
• Conflicting illustration: Contrary to the UN’s projection of 11.2 billion people on the planet by 2100, Snow insists that it would reduce to 8.5 billion by then.
• Positive outlook: Eight billion people by 2100, is potentially eight billion new ideas that will increase food production, ways for people to learn on the internet etc.
  • “Superabundance: The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet”, a new book published by Cato Institute recently noted that resource abundance increased faster than the population - a relationship that they call “superabundance.”
  • On average, every additional human being created more value than he or she consumed. For instance, more people produce more ideas, which lead to more inventions in the marketplace to separate the useful from the useless.
  • At the end of that process of discovery, people are left with innovations that overcome shortages, spur economic growth, and raise standards of living.
• Raised caution: The “Superabundance” book also notes that large populations are not enough to sustain superabundance -Eg poverty in China and India before their respective economic reforms.
  • Thus the book put emphasis that to innovate, people must be allowed to think, speak, publish, associate, and disagree. They must be allowed to save, invest, trade, and profit. In a word, they must be free.

 

Gloomy outlook

• Burdensome aspect: Antithetical to optimistic scenario, many believe that more people means more mouths to feed, more exploitation of resources and more carbon emissions, which are detrimental to nature.
  • Cautioning that population explosion will cause many problems to future generations, PM Modi few years back had remarked that having “smaller families” is also a form of patriotism.
• Attempts at population control: The developed West and China took a grim view of population growth in the last century and attempted population control. By the turn of 21^st century, both countries witnessed low birth rates and consequently, a slowing down of population growth.
• India’s course: A recent call given by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat batted for “a comprehensive population control policy, which should apply to all equally, and no one should get any concessions”
  • Drawing attention to the challenges of unbalanced population growth, Bhagwat cited the creation of new countries like East Timor, South Sudan and Kosovo and said that when there is a population imbalance, new countries are created. Countries are divided.

 

Analyzing religion-based demography

• Statistics: PEW data projects the global Muslim population to be 2.8 billion (30 per cent of the world) by 2050 and the Christian population to be 2.9 billion (31 per cent). Hindus will constitute around 15 per cent of the world population by then.
• Analysis of demographic change: Between 2010 and 2050, about 750 million Christians and 350 million Hindus will be added to the world population. But in the corresponding period, about 2 billion Muslims will join the global population.
• Accumulative data: In the four decades, the Christian share of the world population is projected to remain at 31.4 per cent while Hindus’ share will decrease from 15 per cent to 14.9 per cent.
  • But the share of the Muslim population will increase from 23.2 per cent to 29.7 per cent.

 

A silver lining

• Declining fertility: Globally, the population growth rates are declining. This also includes Muslim population Although Muslim population continues to be high when compared to other communities, the fertility rates among Muslims too are falling.
• Demonstration: This trend of declining fertility rates among Muslims was underscored by the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) in India.
  • In 1951, the TFR among Muslims was over 5.4 and that among Hindus was over 3.2.
  • According to recent data (NFHS-5), the corresponding figures for Muslims and Hindus have dropped to 2.36 and 1.94 respectively.
  • The TFR at around 2.2, with each family having a minimum of two children, is considered a balanced demographic growth.

 

Conclusion

• The population will continue to grow, but it needs to be balanced growth.
• The demographics is a complex, and often contentious, subject. Better living standards aimed to be provided to the generations to come. As Gandhi said, nature can offer a free lunch, if only we control our appetite. The Indian answer will be sustainable consumption.