India as Most Populous Can Be More Boon Than Bane

Why in News?

• By mid-2023, India is expected to surpass China as the most populous country.
• As this can be a great demographic advantage than a serious concern, India must focus on exploiting benefits from the available demographic dividend.

 

When will India surpass China?

• United Nation reports suggest that India will have a population of 142.86 crore by mid-2023, which is 2.9 million higher than China’s population of 142.57 crore.
• Considering the limited information for both China and India, especially in the absence of the Census 2021, it is difficult to predict the exact date on which India will surpass China and become the most populous nation.

 

Is the change in demographic order a Boon or Bane?

Whether this change in demographic order will prove to be a burden or resource largely depends on the following points:

The Nature of Population Growth

• Population is a resource as long as the country’s carrying capacity is intact.
• Carrying capacity does not refer to only per capita availability of natural resources. It is dynamic and changes with changing technology, the efficiency of production and consumption systems of a country.

Population size

• India is already at replacement level fertility with the total fertility rate (TFR) at 2.0 in 2023. This means two children are replacing their parents.
• This is an indication of the stabilisation of the population. However, it continues to experience positive growth, but in a decelerated mode until 2064, from which point it will become negative growth.
• The peak of India’s population size will be around 169.6 crore in 2063.

The age composition of the population:

• It tells us about:
  • Available support ratios in the form of the number of the working-age population (15-64 years).
  • And, the dependent population (0-14 years and 65 years and above).
• With 68% of the working age population in 2023, the country continues to have a demographic window of opportunity for the next 35 years to reap an economic dividend.
• However, the availability of a demographic window of opportunity in itself will not automatically turn into economic dividend.

Mechanisms to translate the demographic bonus into economic dividend

• Employment or job creation: To realise the vision of demographic dividend becoming a reality India must generate sufficient and quality jobs for its working-age population.
• Education and skills generation: A skilled workforce is critical for better productivity of economic activity and reduces excessive public spending and helps in greater capital creation.
• Focus on the health of the workforce: Ensuring a healthy lifespan by preventing diseases and disabilities is an important mechanism that translates demographic opportunity into economic gains.
• Good governance: Good governance should be reflected through conscientious policies that help in creating a healthy environment for increasing the efficiency and productivity of the population.

India's opportunities from its demographic advantage

• Potential to become a worldwide market
  • With lower manufacturing costs due to a relatively cheaper workforce, India can become a worldwide market for both production and consumption. This is evident in India’s IT sector.
  • India’s opportunity must be looked at in comparison to the consequences of population decline and ageing across countries like Japan, China, the United States and other major economies.
• Opportunity to boost per capita GDP: Available demographic opportunity in the form of a greater share of the working-age population has the potential to boost per capita GDP by an additional 43% by 2061.

Areas of concerns for India

• In Indian perspective, a total fertility rate of less than 1.8 may not be economically beneficial. This is because once fertility tends to decline, it is hard to reverse it.
• Therefore, drastic population control methods run the risk of inducing forced population ageing, which would result in the nation “getting old before getting rich”.
• The invisible and unsustainable production, consumption, and unequal distribution, rather than the visible population size, are what are inflicting greater harm and economic devastation.

Instead of population control the government should focus on:

• The policies that support an enabling environment that can provide high-quality education, good health care, respectable employment opportunities, good infrastructure, and gender empowerment.
• If India falls short in this, its “demographic dividend” can become a “demographic disaster”.

 

Conclusion

As the country with the largest population in the world, there are advantages and disadvantages. India's younger population, however, results in higher support ratios because there are fewer diseases, disabilities, and caregiving responsibilities.

 

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Q1) What is the projected world’s population in 2100? 

It is expected to reach 10.4 billion in 2100. However, According to United Nations reports there is a degree of uncertainty around projected population. 

 

Q2) How can India use its diplomacy with a large population? 

India can use its large population while negotiating bilateral trades, exert influence on the global stage with skilled demography.

 

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Source: The Hindu