India Must Rethink Its Arctic Outlook

Context

• The global geopolitical landscape is undergoing profound transformations, and nowhere is this shift more surprising than in the Arctic.
• Once a domain celebrated for its scientific cooperation and environmental stewardship, the Arctic is rapidly morphing into a contested geopolitical and military arena.
• As conflict zones proliferate worldwide, the polar north has emerged as a new frontier of competition, where great powers jostle for influence, resources, and strategic advantage.

The Arctic’s Rising Strategic Importance and The Steady March of Militarisation

• The Arctic’s Rising Strategic Importance
  • The renewed strategic focus on the Arctic is not merely the result of escalating geopolitical ambitions.
  • Crucially, climate change has played an enabling role by reshaping the physical and economic contours of the region.
  • The Northern Sea Route (NSR), once navigable only during brief summer months, is now increasingly accessible year-round.
  • This development has heightened global interest, with the NSR promising to redraw major trade routes and unlock untapped resource wealth.
  • Consequently, traffic along these corridors has surged, accentuating the Arctic’s transition from a scientific preserve to a geopolitical hotspot.
• The Steady March of Militarisation
  • Parallel to these commercial opportunities is a more troubling trend: the militarisation of the high north.
  • Arctic states are not only reviving dormant military installations but also enhancing their operational capabilities through submarine deployments and conspicuous shows of force.
  • Although this militarisation is not entirely new, its intensification marks a significant shift in the stakes for control and influence.
  • A symbolic turning point came in 2019 when U.S. President Donald Trump proposed purchasing Greenland, a move widely dismissed as absurd but, in reality, underscoring the Arctic’s growing centrality in global power politics.

India’s Paradoxical Posture and Strategic Stakes for India

• India’s Paradoxical Posture
  • For non-Arctic nations such as India, these shifts hold significant implications. Yet, India’s response has been paradoxically subdued.
  • The country's 2022 Arctic Policy is commendable for its clarity and focus on climate science, environmental protection, and sustainable development.
  • It draws strength from India’s experience with the Himalayan Third Pole, recognizing the interconnectedness between polar changes and South Asia’s water security.
  • However, the policy’s emphasis remains firmly on scientific and environmental dimensions, underplaying the Arctic’s fast-evolving strategic realities.
  • India’s current posture appears increasingly out of step with the region’s new dynamics.
  • While the Arctic Council and India’s research activities in Svalbard testify to a sustained presence, these initiatives are rooted in a bygone era of cooperative diplomacy.
  • As the Arctic order frays under the weight of geopolitical rivalry, India’s reliance on scientific diplomacy risks marginalisation.
• Strategic Stakes for India
  • The Arctic’s geopolitical recalibration is not a distant concern for India; its ramifications are tangible and far-reaching.
  • As the NSR gains prominence, India’s traditional dominance over Indian Ocean trade routes may come under pressure, challenging its vision of becoming a linchpin of Indo-Pacific connectivity.
  • The deepening collaboration between Russia and China in the Arctic, coupled with China’s growing maritime presence in the Indian Ocean, blurs the line between the Arctic and Indo-Pacific theatres, compelling India to reassess its regional strategies.
  • Moreover, India faces a delicate diplomatic balancing act.
  • Its historical ties with Russia are increasingly scrutinised by Nordic states, particularly in the wake of Russia’s assertive posture in Ukraine.
  • New Delhi has yet to convincingly articulate how its principle of strategic autonomy can align with the evolving interests of its Arctic partners.

The Way Forward: Toward a More Purposeful Arctic Engagement

• India’s future in the Arctic demands a strategic recalibration, one that preserves its environmental ethos while embedding a sharper geopolitical focus.
• A multi-pronged strategy is imperative. First, institutionalising Arctic engagement through dedicated desks in the Foreign and Defence Ministries, supported by regular inter-agency coordination and think tank collaboration, would establish a robust policy framework.
• Second, India should actively seek partnerships with like-minded Arctic states in dual-use areas such as polar logistics, maritime domain awareness, and satellite monitoring, enhancing its credibility while avoiding overt militarisation.
• Third, as new governance forums arise, India must secure its place in shaping rules and standards concerning infrastructure, shipping, and the blue economy, always engaging local communities with respect and restraint.

Conclusion

• India’s Arctic strategy, while thoughtful in its scientific and environmental emphasis, is no longer sufficient in the face of mounting geopolitical rivalries.
• The Arctic is no longer merely a zone of principle-driven cooperation; it is increasingly defined by power politics.
• If India fails to adapt its approach, it risks being sidelined in the emerging Arctic order.
• A more integrated and strategic engagement, balancing climate consciousness with pragmatic geopolitics, will be vital for safeguarding India’s long-term interests in this rapidly transforming region.

Q1. Why is the Arctic becoming geopolitically important?

Ans. Climate change is opening new sea routes and resources, attracting global competition.

Q2. What is India’s main focus in its Arctic policy?

Ans. India emphasizes climate science, environmental protection, and sustainable development.

Q3.  What challenge does India face with Arctic militarisation?

Ans. India risks being sidelined as Arctic powers shift focus from science to geopolitics.

Q4.  Why is the Northern Sea Route significant for India?

Ans. It could divert trade away from Indian Ocean routes, affecting India's connectivity role.

Q5. What strategic adjustment is suggested for India?

Ans. India should deepen Arctic engagement beyond science to include security and governance. 

Source:The Hindu