Meeting India’s ‘carbon sink’ target

Why in News?

• The commitment to increase its carbon sink by 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030 has not been updated unlike other two climate commitments which were enhanced in India’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to UNFCCC in 2022.
• The apparent silence over the third commitment led to speculations that India might not be able to meet this target.

 

India’s Updated NDCs

• India after the COP26 to UNFCCC held in Glasgow, UK, announced enhanced climate targets, representing the framework for India’s transition to cleaner energy for the period 2021-2030.
• Article 4 of the Paris Agreement requires countries to submit NDCs every five years which represents a “progression” beyond a country’s current NDC.
  • This nudges countries to continually improve their self-determined ambition.
  • The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change that seeks to keep global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
  • It also aims to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
• These updated NDCs were prepared after carefully considering our national circumstances and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC).
• India’s updated international climate commitments enhanced two of the three original targets it had promised to achieve by 2030 as follows:

 

Image Caption: India’s Update INDCs

Exaggerated Targets Related to Creating Carbon Sink

• Government figures in 2022 showed that in the six years since 2015, the carbon sink in the country had increased by 703 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, or roughly by 120 million tonnes every year.
  • Carbon sink is defined as the total amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by and residing in forests and trees.
• However, at this pace, the target of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent was unlikely to be met by 2030.
• Thus, the carbon sink target was clearly much more ambitious and difficult than the other two that had been achieved about eight years before deadline.

 

Apprehensions Related to Meeting Carbon Sink Target

• Also, the rate of increase of carbon stock in India’s forests and tree cover has been showing a rising trend, even though the total carbon stock in 2021 was slightly less than what the FSI had projected just two years ago.
• Though terrestrial carbon sinks in the form of trees are a relatively low-cost way to lower atmospheric CO2, but according to Global Forest Watch, India lost 371,000 hectares of primary forest cover and 2.07 million hectares of tree cover between 2002 and 2021.
• India also revealed to UNFCCC in 2021 that it planted trees and enhanced forest lands across 112,422 hectares in the period 2015-20, against its target of 142,684 hectares.
• Forests, mangroves, wetlands, peatlands and grasslands which are also all-powerful carbon sinks, but are not given adequate attention.
• Further, dedicating forests for the sequestration role involves trade-offs between diverse stakeholders in a densely populated and historically forest-dependent society such as India.
  • For instance, forests have an ecological role in biodiversity and watershed services;
  • A social role in supporting local communities through non-timber products, fodder, and fuel wood;
  • An economic role through timber; and now a climate action role through CO2 sequestration.

 

Ambiguity in Baseline Year in Climate Commitment

• The carbon sink target had not been defined precisely in 2015, i.e., India though committed to create an additional carbon sink through additional forest and tree cover by 2030, but made no mention of the baseline year.
  • That is, it did not mention which year this additional 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent of carbon sink would be measured against.
• This is in contrast to India’s target on emissions intensity that specified 2005 as the baseline year.
• Also, the commitment on renewable capacity did not require a baseline because it was an absolute target.
• India selected 2005 as the baseline year because under the Paris Agreement, countries themselves are supposed to set their climate targets, including the choice of baseline year.

 

Why were Aggressive Targets Pursued?

• The climate targets were announced in a hurry ahead of the 2015 climate change conference as these were considered crucial to the finalisation of the Paris Agreement.
  • Though India’s original targets on emissions intensity and renewable capacity were modest, but the carbon sink target required a detailed study, which could not have happened in a short time.
• The Dehradun-based Forest Survey of India (FSI) pointed out in 2019 that even the word “additional carbon sink” in the Indian commitment could be interpreted in different ways as follows:
  • over and above the carbon sink that existed in the baseline year, or
  • over and above what it would be in the target year of 2030 in the business-as-usual scenario.
• India hence sought to remove the ambiguity regarding the baseline year for the carbon sink target by committing itself to the baseline of 2005.
  • This was visible in Environment Minister’s reply in Parliament that India had already achieved 1.97 billion tonnes of additional carbon sink as compared to the base year of 2005.
  • He also added that “the remaining target can be achieved by increasing forest and tree cover of the country through implementation of various central and state sponsored schemes”.
  • However, when India formally made a submission of its updated international climate commitments to the UNFCCC, the forestry target was again left ambiguous as there was no mention of the baseline year in India’s formal submission.
  • Also, if the “additional” in India’s commitment is interpreted as over and above the business-as-usual levels, meeting the carbon target would become near impossible.
• Hence though statements in Parliament are considered the official government position, but internationally, India can only be held accountable to what is contained in its official submission to the secretariat of the UNFCCC.

 

Conclusion

• India’s policies and crucially, the implementation of these policies need to be in sync to achieve climate targets and attain climate justice along with making a formal baseline to achieve its target.
• It could also broaden the scope of its carbon sink goal to include mangroves and peatlands, and to raise its carbon sequestration target.
• An ethical approach involving the local communities to arrive at sensible compromises through a process of democratic governance should also be enabled.

 

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Q1) What is Global Forest Watch?

It is an open-source web application to monitor global forests in near real-time by the World Resources Institute.

 

Q2) What is the role of Forest Survey of India (FSI)?

FSI, an organisation under the Ministry of Environment & Forests, conducts survey and assessment of forest resources in the country.

 

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Source: The Indian Express