Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina Resigns Amid Protests: Implications for India and Regional Stability

What’s in today’s article?

• Why in News?
• The situation in Bangladesh
• Sheikh Hasina's exit from Dhaka and its impact on India
• India’s stand during the crisis
• Conclusion

Why in News?

Sheikh Hasina has resigned as Bangladesh's Prime Minister amid violent protests demanding her departure. The Bangladesh Army, led by General Waker-Uz-Zaman, has taken control.

General Waker-Uz-Zaman announced that the Army will establish an interim government and urged protesters to return to peace.

The situation in Bangladesh

• Background
  • Bangladesh has been facing significant protests for the past month over the job quota system.
• The protestors opposed to the return of a 30% quota in government employment at all levels for those who fought for the freedom of Bangladesh from Pakistan, as well as their children and grandchildren.
  • These protests are the largest since Sheikh Hasina was re-elected for her fourth consecutive term since 2008.
  • While she has overseen economic growth, her crackdown on the Opposition, media, and civil society has led to widespread unpopularity.
  • The youth-led protests became the tipping point for her resignation.
• Hasina resigned and fled to India
  • Hasina resigned and fled to India on a military aircraft, following weeks of anti-government protests that have left at least 300 dead and hundreds injured.
• Following her resignation, Sheikh Hasina reportedly received an ultimatum to flee the country.
• After leaving Dhaka, she arrived at Hindon Air Base in Uttar Pradesh's Ghaziabad.
• She held talks with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval on the present situation in Bangladesh and her future course of action.
• The Indian Air Force and other security agencies are providing security to Hasina.
  • While speculation exists that Hasina might travel to London, reports also suggest she could head to Belarus.

Sheikh Hasina's exit from Dhaka and its impact on India

• India has lost a trusted partner in the region
  • Sheikh Hasina's departure after 17 years means India has lost a trusted regional partner.
• Even after her re-election for the fourth consecutive time earlier this year, Hasina's first port of call for a bilateral visit was India.
  • She was a friend to India, collaborating closely on countering terrorist groups in Bangladesh.
• Hasina has been sensitive to India’s security concerns.
• In return, India has been a generous neighbour, helping Bangladesh’s development as well as building connectivity to signal the economic and security interdependence between the two countries.
  • With Hasina as the PM, Bangladesh and India achieved a historic land boundary agreement on an issue festering for decades.
  • The countries share electricity and fuel, and India is the first responder for Bangladesh.
• Strong China
  • A strong Chinese presence in Bangladesh poses a significant challenge for India, potentially leaving it encircled by unfriendly or indifferent neighbors:
• China and Pakistan to the west and north,
• a communist-led Nepal,
• Taliban-controlled Afghanistan,
• an anti-India Maldives, and
• a potentially ambivalent Bangladesh.
  • This situation would be detrimental to India's strategic and security interests.
• Recently, India offered to help out Bangladesh on the Teesta Reservoir Project, which China has been eyeing.
• The location of the project, close to the Siliguri Corridor or the Chicken's Neck, is of strategic concern for India.
• India faced security issues when Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) was in power
  • During the BNP rule, anti-India activities grew significantly. The BNP, led by Begum Khaleda Zia, used an anti-India stance as a major election plank.
• This resonated with many Bangladeshis who felt India was interfering in their internal politics.
  • The BNP's anti-India rhetoric was further amplified by its alliance with Islamic groups like Jamaat-e-Islami between 2001 and 2006.
• Several ethnic insurgent groups that troubled northeast India, like the Ulfa, operated from Bangladesh during this time.
  • The recent 'India-Out' campaign is another example of the BNP's stance, where some of its leaders openly voiced their opposition against their neighbour.
  • Hence, India will be worried about what attitude the new government will take towards India.
• Border Security Concern
  • New Delhi cannot afford to have another front open when the LoC and the border with Pakistan is hot again, and the Indian Army is in a long standoff with the PLA in eastern Ladakh.
  • The Myanmar border is also extremely volatile, and the source of unrest and strife in India’s Northeast.
• Islamist extremism could return to Bangladesh
  • As per various analysts, the ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina represented a secular and modernizing vision of Bangla nationalism.
  • Her firm politics served as a strong barrier against radical extremism, which posed significant security challenges for India and threatened to push Bangladesh in a regressive direction.
• Future of transit
  • Transit and trans-shipment arrangements with Bangladesh may be revised by the incoming regime in Dhaka.
  • India needs these for better logistics supply to its Northeast. New Delhi, therefore, must work with the interim govt to ensure their continuity.

India’s stand during the crisis

• Bangladesh protests - its internal matter
  • India described the violent protests in Bangladesh as an internal matter of that country.
• India has been naturally supportive towards her
  • New Delhi has tacitly supported Sheikh Hasina despite her undemocratic practices.
  • The West has criticized her crackdown on civil society, the opposition, and the media, calling for an end to her authoritarian methods.
  • India's backing of Hasina, even amid allegations of election rigging, has created tensions between India and the West.

Conclusion

During the recent protests, there have been hints of anti-India anger due to the perception that India was helping Hasina cling on to power. Hence, India will have to be careful of the popular sentiments in Bangladesh.

Diplomacy will continue and whoever is in power in Bangladesh, India will do business with them. However, the comfort level might differ from when Sheikh Hasina was at the helm.

Q.1. What is Chicken Neck Area?

The Chicken Neck Area, or Siliguri Corridor, is a narrow stretch of land in India, about 22 kilometers wide, connecting the northeastern states to the rest of the country. It is strategically significant, bordered by Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh, making it a crucial but vulnerable point for India's connectivity and security.

Q.2. What is land boundary agreement between India and Bangladesh?

The Land Boundary Agreement between India and Bangladesh, signed in 2015, resolved longstanding border disputes by exchanging 162 enclaves. This historic accord demarcated 4,096 kilometers of shared border, facilitated better border management, and improved bilateral relations by addressing the statelessness of enclave residents and ensuring smoother cross-border movement.

Source: As Sheikh Hasina flees, what does it mean for India? Six preliminary takeaways from Bangladesh’s crisis | India Today | Indian Express | Economic Times | NDTV