What is at Stake at COP 28

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Why in News?
• Background to the COP 28
• What is the Global Carbon Budget?
• Who’s Responsible for Cumulative Global Emissions?
• How does the Carbon Budget Matter for India?
• What Should India’s Stance be at COP 28?
• Challenges and Way Ahead

Why in News?

• The 2023 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will convene from 30 November to 12 December 2023 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE).
• It will comprise:
  • The 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP 28);
  • The 5th meeting of the COP serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA 5);
  • The 18th meeting of the COP serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 18); etc.

Background to the COP 28

• There is an almost linear relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
• The UNFCCC in 1992 noted that per capita emissions in developing countries are still “relatively low” and that their share in the global emissions will grow to meet their social and developmental needs.
• The Convention recognises the ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ (CBDR-RC) principle.
  • This means different States have different responsibilities and respective capabilities in tackling climate change.
• This principle has been reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement (COP 21), whose main aim is -
  • To hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and
  • To pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.
• According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6):
  • Every 1,000 billion tonnes of CO2 in emissions causes an estimated 0.45 degrees C rise in the global surface temperature.
  • Logically, limiting the rise in global temperature to a specific level means limiting cumulative CO2 emission to within a carbon budget. 

What is the Global Carbon Budget?

• It refers to the maximum cumulative global anthropogenic CO2 emissions from the pre-industrial era to when such emissions reach net- zero, resulting in limiting global warming to a given level with a given probability.
• The remaining carbon budget indicates how much CO2 could still be emitted, from a specified time after the pre-industrial period, while keeping temperature rise to the specified limit.
• The IPCC AR6 has shown that the world warmed by a staggering 1.07 degrees C until 2019 from pre-industrial levels, so almost four-fifths of the global carbon budget stands depleted.
  • Only a fifth remains to meet the target set in the Paris Agreement.
• For a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C, the U.S. would have to reach net-zero in 2025 (rather than 2050); Germany by 2030 (instead of 2045); and the EU-28 bloc by 2031 (instead of 2050).

Who’s Responsible for Cumulative Global Emissions?

• According to the IPCC AR6, the developed countries have appropriated a disproportionately larger share of the global carbon budget to date.
• The contribution of South Asia (which includes India) to historical cumulative emissions is only around 4% despite having almost 24% of the entire world population.
• The per capita CO2-FFI (fossil fuel and industry) emissions of South Asia was just 1.7 tonnes CO2-equivalent per capita, far below North America (15.4 tonnes CO2-eq. per capita) and also significantly lower than the world average (6.6). 

How does the Carbon Budget Matter for India?

• The global carbon budget for a given temperature limit is a global resource, common to the entire world, but is exhaustible and limited.
• India must recognise ‘fair share of the carbon budget’ as a strategic national resource whose reserves are depleting rapidly due to over-exploitation by developed countries.
• In a rapidly depleting global carbon budget, if India fails to deploy resources at its command, it will be commanded by new colonial techniques of developed countries.

What Should India’s Stance be at COP 28?

• The Indian government has led from the front to foster international consensus to tackle climate change.
• To this end, India has set up the International Solar Alliance, the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, and the Global Biofuel Alliance.
• Through the ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ (LiFE) mission, the Indian government also aims to spread awareness of good lifestyle practices and establish that sustainable lifestyles are the best way forward.
• At COP28, India must demand a fair share of its carbon budget or equivalent reparations to bring about fairness within the global order.

Challenges and Way Ahead

• In almost all the emissions scenarios estimated by the IPCC, the world breaches an increase of 1.5 degrees C from pre-industrial levels in the early 2030s.
• The world is still largely powered by non-renewable energy. In 2022, oil, coal and gas accounted for 30%, 27% and 23% of the world’s total energy, while solar and wind energy together contributed only 2.4%.
• Development is the first defence against climate change. How long will developing countries have to divert their scarce resources, manpower, and attention to meeting global problems created by developed countries?
• Until developed countries themselves undertake mitigation efforts in their own backyard, the exercise will be pointless.
• It is imperative that developing countries receive a fair and equitable share of their carbon budget alongside stronger and more fruitful commitments from developed countries.
  • This includes a promised but unmet climate-specific new and additional finance.

Q1) What is the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CRDI)?

The CDRI is an international coalition of countries, UN agencies, multilateral development banks, the private sector, and academic institutions, that aims to promote disaster-resilient infrastructure.

Q2) What is the Global Biofuel Alliance?

Global Biofuel Alliance was announced during the 2023 G20 New Delhi summit to promote the development and adoption of sustainable biofuels and set relevant standards and certification.

Source: At COP 28, a fair share of the global carbon budget is at stake | Explained