What’s in today’s article?

• Background
• Key Features of the Study
• Expected Outcomes & Modern Relevance
• The Aryan Migration Debate
• Conclusion
• Key Terms for Prelims

Background

• In a ground-breaking move, the Indian government has launched an ambitious scientific study using both ancient and modern genomics to uncover the population history of South Asia.
• This study aims to resolve long-standing debates and conflicting theories about the origins and migration patterns of ancient Indian communities.
• The research is being carried out by the Anthropological Survey of India (AnSI), which functions under the Ministry of Culture, in collaboration with the Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences, Lucknow, under the Department of Science & Technology.
• The project, titled “Reconstruction of the Population History of South Asia using Ancient and Modern Genomics,” focuses on DNA extracted from ancient skeletal remains to provide new insights into the region's past.

Key Features of the Study

• Scope & Focus:
  • The project involves studying 300 ancient skeletal remains, primarily cranial bones, tooth fragments, and other bone pieces.
  • These remains have been collected from archaeological sites in India and Pakistan, including well-known sites from the Indus Valley Civilization like Harappa and Mohenjo-Daro (now in Pakistan), as well as locations like Burzahom (J&K), Nagarjunakonda (Andhra Pradesh), Maski (Karnataka), Ropar (Punjab), and Lothal (Gujarat).
  • These remains were excavated between 1922 and 1958 and are currently in the custody of the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI).
• Objective:
  • The study aims to reconstruct the origins of ancient Indian communities by extracting and analysing DNA from the remains.
  • It will also shed light on the living conditions, diets, disease prevalence, and migration patterns of ancient people, allowing for a clearer understanding of how populations moved and interacted over time.
  • This research is expected to help answer fundamental questions about the gene pool and environmental adaptation of ancient Indian civilizations.

Expected Outcomes & Modern Relevance

• Officials believe that this scientific research could provide conclusive evidence regarding the origins and migration patterns of ancient populations in South Asia.
• By comparing ancient DNA with modern DNA, researchers aim to uncover the complex migration history of the region, clarifying the role of early civilizations in shaping modern South Asian populations.
• Clearer Historical Narrative:
  • This study is expected to reveal how ancient Indian populations expanded and interacted, leading to a more accurate account of India's ancient history.
• Understanding Genetic Continuity:
  • Initial findings suggest continuity in the genetic makeup of populations over time, without significant external changes.
  • This challenges earlier theories of large-scale migrations influencing India's demographic history.
• Impact on Textbook Narratives:
  • These findings could have implications for school textbooks, such as those produced by NCERT, which have already undergone revisions to emphasize the continuity of Indian civilization over 5,000 years, casting doubts on the theory of Aryan migration.

The Aryan Migration Debate

• The project aims to address one of the most significant and controversial questions in Indian history: Did the Aryan migration happen?
• Aryan Invasion Theory:
  • Proposed by Western scholars in the 19th century, this theory posits that a group of Aryans, fair-skinned people from Central Asia, migrated to India around 2000-1500 BC, playing a major role in shaping the civilization of the Indian subcontinent.
• Indigenous Theory:
  • Many modern Indian archaeologists argue that the Aryans were indigenous to the region and that they lived along the Saraswati River.
  • When the river dried up, they migrated to other parts of India and settled in the Indus Valley.
• Recent excavations, such as those at the 4,000-year-old archaeological site in Sinauli (Uttar Pradesh), have revealed the existence of indigenous warrior burials, weapons, and chariots, which contradict the idea of an external Aryan migration.

Conclusion

• This pioneering study combining ancient and modern genomics is set to reshape our understanding of South Asia's population history.
• By studying DNA from ancient skeletal remains, the project will provide crucial insights into the origins, migration, and genetic evolution of the Indian subcontinent.
• These findings will likely offer new perspectives on historical debates, such as the Aryan migration theory, and help construct a more accurate narrative of India’s ancient past.
• The study is expected to be completed by December 2025 and holds significant promise for uncovering the genetic continuity of ancient civilizations in South Asia.

Key Terms for Prelims

• Genomics: The study of an organism’s complete set of DNA, including all of its genes. In this study, both ancient DNA (from skeletal remains) and modern DNA (from current populations) are being analysed to understand historical connections.
• DNA Extraction: The process of isolating DNA from biological samples, which is complex in ancient remains due to the degradation of material over time.
• Population History: The study of how ancient populations migrated, settled, and evolved, often focusing on the genetic relationships between modern and ancient peoples.

Q1. What do you mean by Half-life?

When a radioactive atom decays, it becomes a different element. The amount of time that it takes one half of the atoms present to decay is called “half-life.” Every radioactive isotope has a specific half-life.

Q2. What is Carbon Dating?

Carbon dating is a method of determining the age of organic materials by measuring the amount of carbon-14 in a sample. Carbon-14 is a radioactive isotope of carbon that's created when cosmic rays interact with atmospheric nitrogen. Living organisms absorb carbon-14 from the atmosphere, and when they die, the carbon-14 begins to decay into other atoms.

Source: Govt begins study to find roots of ancient Indian communities

 What’s in today’s article?

• Why in News?
• Falling rupee
• Outlook for the Rupee

Why in News?

On October 11, 2024, the Indian rupee ended above the 84 per US dollar mark for the first time, closing at 84.07 after touching 84.10 during the day. A day before, the rupee had closed at 83.98. 

The fall came amid outflows from foreign institutional investors, concerns over rising oil prices, and higher demand for the US dollar from foreign banks.

Falling rupee

• Meaning
  • When it is reported that the rupee has fallen to a low of 80 dollars, it basically means that one needs Rs 80 to buy a single dollar.
  • This is important when buying not just American goods but also other goods and services (say crude oil).
  • In a free-market economy, the exchange rate is decided by the supply and demand for rupees and dollars. 
  • If, in India, demand for dollars is more in comparison to the demand for rupee, the exchange rate will fall or weaken for rupee and rise or strengthen for dollar.
  • However, in India, the market does not fully determine the exchange rate. RBI occasionally intervenes in the foreign exchange (forex) market to ensure that the rupee's price does not fluctuate too much.
• Reasons for falling rupee
  • Rising Crude Oil Prices: Increased oil prices have raised concerns about India's trade deficit and inflation.
    • The West Asia crisis has a bearing on the oil prices.
  • FII Outflows: Foreign investors are moving funds to China, following China's stimulus measures.
    • Foreign investors have been following a strategy of ‘Sell India, Buy China’ after the Chinese authorities announced monetary and fiscal measures to stimulate the slowing economy.
  • Increased Demand for the US Dollar: Foreign banks are demanding more US dollars, further pressuring the rupee.
  • Weak Domestic Markets: Local stock market performance also contributed to the rupee’s decline.
• Impact
  • It could increase cost of imports, raise overseas education costs, make foreign loans costly for companies and has the potential to stoke inflation, which is already ruling at 7%. 

• Impact on inflation management
  • The most crucial impact would be on inflation as the country imports nearly 80% of its crude oil needs. 
  • This would mean that imports would become costlier and travel through the value chain to raise input costs.
• Impact on current account deficit
  • Since a large proportion of India’s imports are dollar-denominated, these imports will get costlier.
  • Costlier imports, in turn, will widen the trade deficit as well as the current account deficit, which, in turn, will put pressure on the exchange rate.
• Positive impact
  • One positive impact could be that remittances from overseas could become attractive.
  • A fall in the rupee can also benefit India's exporters - unless they import raw materials, which would become more expensive.
• Steps that could be taken to prevent the slide
  • Sell large amounts of dollars to support rupee (by increasing the supply of dollar)
  • Raising interest rates to make Indian investment attractive
  • Removing reserve restrictions on dollar deposits with banks
  • Allowing traders to make settlements in rupee to reduce dollar dependence.

Outlook for the Rupee

• Analysts expect the rupee to remain volatile, driven by uncertainties in oil prices and fluctuations in the dollar index. 
• The rupee may face continued pressure from FPI selling and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly from tensions in the Middle East.

Q.1. What caused the Indian rupee to fall to 84 per US dollar?

The fall was triggered by rising crude oil prices, outflows of foreign investment, and increased demand for the US dollar by foreign banks.

Q.2. How does a weak rupee impact the Indian economy?

A weaker rupee increases the cost of imports, especially crude oil, leading to higher inflation and a widened trade deficit, while also benefiting exporters.

Source: Rupee hits an all-time low of 84 against the US dollar: factors leading to the fall and the outlook | First Post | Indian Express