Sheikh Hasina’s Exit: Impact on India-Bangladesh Relations and Regional Dynamics

What’s in today’s article?

• Why in News?
• India – Bangladesh Relation during Hasina’s tenure
• Can India Build Strong Relations with Bangladesh's New Leadership?
• Impact on Bangladesh’s ties with other countries

Why in News?

• A week after protests in Bangladesh led to the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India, her future remains uncertain. 
• The Indian government, under Narendra Modi, has provided her with refuge while simultaneously beginning to engage with the new regime that replaced her Awami League government. India is also assessing the impact these political changes in Bangladesh will have on its bilateral relations.

India – Bangladesh Relation during Hasina’s tenure

• Sheikh Hasina's removal from power in Bangladesh marks a significant setback for India, given the strong bilateral ties forged over the past 15 years. 
• From her return to office (2009), Ms. Hasina made her intentions to forge strong ties with Delhi clear. 
  • She began a nationwide crackdown to shut down terror camps, a campaign against religious radicalisation, and extradited over 20 most wanted men accused of terrorism and crime to India.
  • Ms. Hasina also worked on ending border tensions caused by illegal immigration into India, particularly the 2001 incident where brutal BDR-BSF clashes left 15 dead. 
  • Several border patrolling agreements and the signing of the historic 2015 land boundary agreement followed.
• India, in turn, supported Bangladesh through trade concessions, Lines of Credit, and various connectivity projects, helping transform the country’s economy.
  • The Manmohan Singh and Modi governments provided Bangladesh with trade concessions and low-interest Lines of Credit.
  • It supported Sheikh Hasina's efforts to transform the country from a struggling economy into a developing nation that surpassed its neighbors in human development indices.
• Hasina's government, despite becoming increasingly authoritarian, maintained strong relations with India.
• She stood with India on every issue, from boycotting SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) over terrorism from Pakistan, to the Citizenship Amendment Act that set off protests in Bangladesh. 
• Bangladesh has become crucial to India's regional connectivity plans and energy exports.
• However, with her ouster, there is concern that many of the agreements and progress made, including recent power deals with the Adani group, may now be re-evaluated under the new regime.

Can India Build Strong Relations with Bangladesh's New Leadership?

• India continues to engage with Bangladesh's interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, as demonstrated by the Indian High Commissioner's attendance at the swearing-in ceremony. 
• However, several challenges complicate India's relationship with the new regime. 
• Firstly, Sheikh Hasina's presence in India is causing suspicion in Dhaka, and India may prefer her to leave until tensions ease. 
  • If the new government demands her extradition, it could create further complications. 
• Secondly, potential elections could bring the BNP to power, and India has had a difficult experience with the BNP government from 2001-2006, when Bangladesh harbored anti-India groups and aligned with China and Pakistan. 
• Lastly, PM Modi’s appeal for the safety of Hindus and minorities in Bangladesh, along with the establishment of a committee to ensure their protection, is being viewed as partisan in Dhaka, potentially straining relations further.

Impact on Bangladesh’s ties with other countries

• The recent changes in Dhaka will likely affect Bangladesh's international relations, especially with the U.S., which has been critical of the Hasina government and may have played a role in her downfall. 
• The U.S. had implemented a special visa policy to promote democracy in Bangladesh, targeting Hasina and her party, so ties with the new government are expected to improve. 
• Relations with Pakistan, strained under Hasina, might also improve. 
• Despite Hasina's close ties with China, including joining the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing is expected to establish strong relations with the new government as well.

Q.1. What is SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation)?

SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is a regional organization founded in 1985 to promote economic and regional integration among its member states: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. It focuses on fostering collaboration in areas like trade, education, culture, and environmental protection.

Q.2. What is Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA)?

The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), passed in India in 2019, provides a path to citizenship for non-Muslim refugees from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan who entered India before December 31, 2014. The act sparked widespread protests, as critics argue it discriminates based on religion and violates India's secular constitution.

Source: How will Sheikh Hasina’s exit impact India?