Block-Level Monsoon Forecasting System

Block-Level Monsoon Forecasting System Latest News

IMD recently launched India’s first AI-enabled block-level monsoon forecasting system to deliver hyperlocal rainfall and onset predictions weeks in advance.

About Block-Level Monsoon Forecasting System

• It is India’s first artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled monsoon advance forecasting model launched by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
• It was developed in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).  
• It aims to deliver hyperlocal, impact-based, and AI-driven weather services across the country.  
• It combines existing numerical weather prediction models with AI to generate probabilistic forecasts of monsoon progression every Wednesday up to four weeks in advance, with a model error margin of around four days. 
• The system will base its assessment on the onset of a continuous five-day rainfall spell and the absence of prolonged dry spells over the subsequent 30 days.  
• It will disseminate alerts through mobile applications, SMS, and local agricultural extension networks. 
• The forecasting system currently covers 3,196 blocks across 15 states and one Union Territory, largely concentrated in rainfed regions where monsoon onset plays a critical role in agriculture and water management. 
• The coverage will gradually be expanded to other parts of the country.

Source: BS

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