UPSC Mains Current Affairs for 20 July 2026

Strait of Hormuz Conflict: Understanding the Second Phase of the US-Iran War

July 20, 2026

Strait of Hormuz Conflict Latest News

Fighting between the US and Iran has resumed after a fragile ceasefire, with the conflict's second phase centred almost entirely on control of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which 20% of the world's energy supply flows.

The renewed hostilities have significant stakes for India, given its large expatriate population in West Asia and its dependence on energy imports through the strait.

Background: The Ceasefire and MoU

The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire on June 14, followed by a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on June 17. Key terms included:
- Iran would allow ships free passage for 60 days through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran would work with Oman to define the strait's future administration and maritime services.
However, tensions emerged almost immediately, suggesting the two sides never truly agreed on the strait's long-term status.

How Iran Asserted Control

Two days after the MoU, Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), established in May, circulated terms reasserting itself as the nodal transit authority, requiring vessels to hold passage permits and PGSA-approved insurance.
Though free initially, fees were reserved for later, effectively formalising Iran's stake in the strait's management.
While US-Iran delegations met in Switzerland on June 21 and sanctions were lifted the next day. But the PGSA, already sanctioned, was never explicitly relieved — leaving shipping firms wary of dealing with it.

The Omani Route Controversy

Later, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), working with Oman, announced a temporary corridor: a southern route via Oman alongside Iran's preferred northern route.
This effectively formalised the Omani route without Iran's consultation, prompting Tehran to call any route other than its own "unauthorised and dangerous."

Breakdown of Doha Talks

Later, US and Iranian officials met in Doha, where Iran and Oman reportedly proposed a voluntary toll modelled on the Malacca-Singapore Straits. The US rejected this in favour of restoring the pre-war status quo.
- Notably, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore clarified that the Malacca and Singapore Straits, like Hormuz, are "Straits Used for International Navigation," where no fees or tolls are levied on transit passage.
- A voluntary Aids to Navigation Fund exists but is explicitly not a toll.
Talks in Doha ultimately broke down over US resistance to any formal management arrangement for Hormuz.
As a result, fighting resumed in mid-July.
- On July 7, Iran struck three ships on the Omani route, including the India-bound Al Rekayyat, one of the largest LNG carriers built, an incident considered one of shipping's worst-case scenarios.
- Trump declared the ceasefire over.

Why Iran Won't Back Down

In the second phase, Iran has also targeted alternatives to the strait, hitting ship-to-ship transfers off UAE's Fujairah pipeline and pushing the Houthis to disrupt Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline route via Red Sea attacks.
Despite the MoU's promise of economic relief for a sanctions-hit economy, Iran's resistance stems from two factors:
- Distrust of US commitments — new leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei called Trump's signature "utterly worthless and devoid of credibility" after alleged repeated breaches.
- The imperative to retain control over Hormuz, its most significant strategic leverage.
Iran has also continued pushing for a formal transit fee, an Iranian Environmental Protection Agency official reportedly sought "environmental services" charges from ships, citing UNCLOS provisions, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Military Lessons from the Conflict

According to ISW, Iran has adapted its tactics, deploying high-speed, manoeuvrable missiles and increasingly using cluster munitions to compensate for accuracy issues seen in earlier strikes against Israel.
For the US, the conflict has reinforced lessons from Afghanistan and Iraq: excessive, poorly targeted firepower tends to generate more adversaries rather than resolve conflict.

Stakes for India

India faces both humanitarian and economic risks from the conflict:
- Human cost: Fourteen Indians have died and two remain missing since the war began on February 28, mostly seafarers and workers in the Gulf. New Delhi has protested the loss of lives to both Iran and the US.
- Economic impact: Rising energy prices linked to the conflict are already having an inflationary and market impact on India's economy.
India has urged both parties to return to dialogue and diplomacy, cautioning against a global economic slowdown that would disproportionately hurt the Global South.

Conclusion

The US-Iran conflict's second phase shows that control over the Strait of Hormuz, not broader territorial ambitions, is now the central battleground.
With insurers pricing in continued risk and both sides digging in, a durable resolution remains elusive, leaving India exposed to rising energy costs and continued risk to its citizens working across the Gulf and at sea.

Source: IE | TH

Strait of Hormuz Conflict FAQs

Q1: Why is the Strait of Hormuz Conflict central to the second phase of the US-Iran war?

Ans: The Strait of Hormuz Conflict revolves around control of a vital maritime chokepoint through which nearly one-fifth of the world's energy supplies transit.

Q2: How did the Doha talks influence the Strait of Hormuz Conflict?

Ans: The Strait of Hormuz Conflict intensified after the Doha talks collapsed over disagreements on transit management, maritime authority and the future governance of the strategic waterway.

Q3: Why is the Strait of Hormuz Conflict significant for India?

Ans: The Strait of Hormuz Conflict threatens India's energy imports, raises inflationary pressures and endangers Indian citizens and seafarers working across the Gulf region.

Q4: What military lessons have emerged from the Strait of Hormuz Conflict?

Ans: The Strait of Hormuz Conflict demonstrates evolving missile technologies, maritime warfare strategies and the limitations of prolonged military confrontation in achieving lasting political objectives.

Q5: What broader geopolitical challenge does the Strait of Hormuz Conflict highlight?

Ans: The Strait of Hormuz Conflict highlights the strategic importance of maritime chokepoints, freedom of navigation, regional power competition and global energy security.

India’s Uranium Quest: Securing Fuel for Nuclear Power Expansion

July 20, 2026

India's Uranium Quest Latest News

India has secured a long-term uranium supply deal with Australia, marking a key step toward operationalising the India-Australia Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, signed nearly 12 years ago.
The deal follows similar long-term uranium agreements with Canada and Kazakhstan signed earlier this year, reflecting India's push to diversify and secure fuel supplies for its nuclear power expansion.
While the volume of uranium oxide (yellowcake) to be supplied and the duration of the agreement have not been disclosed, the deal is part of a broader strategy to secure fuel amid India's ambitious nuclear expansion plans.

India's Nuclear Power Targets

India aims to expand its civil nuclear power capacity to 100 gigawatt-electric (GWe) by 2047.
Last year, the government opened the tightly regulated civil nuclear sector to greater private participation to support this goal.

India's Current Uranium Sourcing

Uranium, though a common element found worldwide, requires several processing stages before becoming usable nuclear fuel: Mining and milling; Conversion; Enrichment (where required); Fuel fabrication.
India's indigenous Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs), which run on natural uranium, source fuel through a mix of domestic production and imports.
In contrast, enriched uranium used in India's two Light Water Reactor (LWR) plants, Tarapur and Kudankulam, is entirely imported.

Domestic reserves

India's uranium oxide reserves stand at around 4.3 lakh tonnes, spread across 47 deposits in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Jharkhand, Meghalaya, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Maharashtra.
The state-owned Uranium Corporation of India Ltd (UCIL) holds the mandate to mine and process uranium, operating major mines at Jaduguda and Turamdih (Jharkhand) and Tummalapalle (Andhra Pradesh).

The Supply Gap

Despite these reserves, domestic sources meet the uranium requirement for only 2.4 GWe out of India's total 8.7 GWe nuclear capacity; the rest depends on imports.
A Ministry of Power committee, tasked with preparing a roadmap for 100 GW capacity by 2047, estimated that India will need an additional 8,029 tonnes of natural uranium and 1,045 tonnes of enriched uranium annually by 2047.

The NSG Waiver and Expanding Partnerships

India's ability to import uranium was unlocked in 2008, when the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) granted it a "clean waiver", making India the only non-signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to enjoy such trading privileges.

Import Trends

Between 2008-09 and 2024-25, India imported a total of 18,842.60 metric tonnes of uranium (as ore concentrate, natural uranium dioxide pellets, and enriched uranium dioxide pellets) for reactors under IAEA safeguards.
In 2024-25, nuclear plants generated 56,631.48 million units of electricity, of which 39,180 million units came from imported uranium.
The estimated requirement of imported natural uranium for operating and proposed safeguarded PHWRs is around 9,000 metric tonnes during 2025-2033.

Current and Emerging Suppliers

India currently imports uranium from Russia and Uzbekistan.
Cameco Corp. (Canada) signed a $2.6-billion supply agreement in March; shipments are expected to begin next year.
Kazatomprom (Kazakhstan), the world's largest uranium producer, agreed in February to sell a substantial volume to India. Both Cameco and Kazatomprom were major suppliers to India until 2020-21.
France supplied uranium ores and concentrates in 2025-26, while the US supplied similar imports in 2024-25.

Why India Depends on Imports

The core reason is economic: mining and processing domestic uranium into ore concentrate costs three to four times more than importing it internationally, largely due to the poor grade of uranium ore found in India.
However, the Ministry of Power committee cautioned that the global push toward nuclear power could drive up international uranium prices in the coming years.
It recommended that India consider enhancing domestic uranium production, even if costly, to maintain energy security, potentially through additional government equity infusion into UCIL to facilitate its expansion.

Conclusion

India's push to diversify uranium imports, from Australia to Canada and Kazakhstan, reflects the reality that domestic reserves alone cannot sustain its 100 GWe nuclear ambition by 2047.
Balancing import dependence with long-term investment in domestic uranium production will be central to ensuring both energy security and the pace of India's nuclear expansion.

Source: IE

India's Uranium Quest FAQs

Q1: Why is India's Uranium Quest important for the country's nuclear ambitions?

Ans: India's Uranium Quest aims to secure reliable fuel supplies for expanding nuclear power capacity to 100 GWe by 2047 while strengthening. long-term energy security.

Q2: Why does India's Uranium Quest continue to depend on uranium imports?

Ans: India's Uranium Quest relies on imports because domestic uranium reserves are low-grade, costly to mine and insufficient to meet the country's growing nuclear fuel requirements.

Q3: How did the 2008 NSG waiver support India's Uranium Quest?

Ans: India's Uranium Quest gained momentum after the 2008 NSG waiver enabled civilian nuclear trade with countries such as Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan and Russia.

Q4: Which countries are strengthening India's Uranium Quest through long-term supply agreements?

Ans: India's Uranium Quest has been reinforced through long-term uranium supply agreements with Australia, Canada and Kazakhstan, complementing imports from other global suppliers.

Q5: Why must India's Uranium Quest balance imports with domestic production?

Ans: India's Uranium Quest requires balancing imports and domestic mining to reduce supply risks, improve energy security and support sustained nuclear power expansion.

El Nino, Weak Monsoon and India’s Rising Agricultural Imports

July 20, 2026

Weak Monsoon Latest News

India is witnessing below-normal monsoon rainfall and delayed kharif sowing, while forecasts indicate a strengthening El Nino, raising concerns over domestic production of pulses, oilseeds, and cotton and the possibility of record agricultural imports in 2025-26.

Background

India's agriculture remains heavily dependent on the Southwest Monsoon, which contributes nearly 70% of the country's annual rainfall and supports the cultivation of most kharif crops.
Timely and well-distributed rainfall is essential for ensuring adequate acreage, higher crop yields, and stable food prices.
During 2025-26, however, rainfall has remained significantly below normal. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall in June was 38% below the Long Period Average (LPA), while cumulative rainfall till July 19 remained 23.8% below normal for the southwest monsoon season.
The weak monsoon has coincided with forecasts of a strengthening El Nino, a climatic phenomenon associated with warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
Historically, El Nino has often been linked with deficient monsoon rainfall and drought-like conditions in India.
These developments have raised concerns that India may have to rely more heavily on imports of vegetable oils, pulses, and raw cotton if domestic production declines further.

Impact of Weak Monsoon on Kharif Sowing

The rainfall deficit has already begun affecting the sowing of major kharif crops.
As of July 10, the total area sown under kharif crops was 16% lower than the corresponding period last year. Among major crops, the decline has been particularly severe for rain-fed crops:
Pulses
- Overall pulse acreage declined by 23.3%, with significant reductions in:
- Arhar (Tur): 30.3%
- Urad: 29.7%
- Moong: 10.6%
- Moth Bean: 28.1%
Oilseeds
- Oilseed sowing recorded a decline of 21%, including:
- Soybean: 15.9%
- Groundnut: 34%
- Sesame: 46%
Cotton
- Cotton acreage also fell by 15.3%, largely due to delayed rainfall across major producing regions.
- Agricultural experts note that while sowing windows for arhar and cotton remain open for some time, continued rainfall deficiency could significantly reduce final acreage and productivity.

How El Nino Could Affect Agricultural Production

The current rainfall deficit is a concern, but meteorologists believe the larger challenge lies in the possible strengthening of El Nino during the second half of the year.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has projected:
An 81% probability of El Nino intensifying into a very strong event during October-December.
A 97% probability that it will persist through March-April.
Unlike a weak monsoon that mainly affects the kharif season, a strong El Nino can also lead to:
- Higher winter temperatures
- Reduced soil moisture
- Shorter and warmer winters
- Lower reservoir replenishment
This may adversely affect rabi crops such as Wheat, Mustard, Gram (Chana), Masoor and Potato.
Thus, a prolonged El Nino could impact both major agricultural seasons, placing additional pressure on food production.

Record Agricultural Imports: Emerging Trends

India has already witnessed a sharp rise in imports of key agricultural commodities.
During 2025-26 (April-March):
- Vegetable oil imports reached a record 16.9 million tonnes, valued at approximately $19.5 billion.
- Raw cotton imports increased to 1.1 million tonnes, worth nearly $1.9 billion.
- Pulse imports approached 6 million tonnes, the highest since 2016-17, valued at around $3.6 billion.
- If domestic production is adversely affected by poor rainfall and El Nino, these import levels could rise even further.
Why Imports are Increasing
- Declining domestic production due to erratic weather
- Rising demand from consumers and industries
- Lower global commodity prices following record harvests in several exporting countries
- India's structural dependence on edible oil imports, which already account for over 55-60% of domestic consumption

Factors Mitigating the Risk

Despite the concerns, certain factors could help moderate the impact.
Comfortable Foodgrain Stocks
- Government foodgrain reserves remain significantly above buffer norms.
- As of June 1, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) held:
- 68.3 million tonnes of rice
- 53.4 million tonnes of wheat
- These stocks are well above the prescribed buffer requirements and can help stabilise food supplies if production declines.
Pulse Buffer Stocks
- Government agencies reportedly possess over 4 million tonnes of pulses, including:
- Around 2 million tonnes of chana
- Approximately 0.6-0.7 million tonnes of arhar
- These reserves can be released into the market to contain prices if required.
Global Supply Situation
- Unlike previous years, global supplies remain comfortable.
- Following record harvests after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, international markets currently have abundant supplies of Wheat, Rice, Corn (Maize), Soybean and Palm oil.
Fresh arrivals of arhar from Mozambique, Tanzania, Malawi, and Sudan, along with masoor imports from Canada and Australia, are expected in the coming months, helping ease domestic shortages.

Government's Likely Response

If monsoon conditions continue to deteriorate, the government may adopt several policy measures to ensure food security and contain inflation. Possible interventions include:
- Reducing import duties on edible oils, pulses, and raw cotton.
- Releasing buffer stocks of pulses and foodgrains into the market.
- Continuing or expanding duty-free imports of select commodities.
- Rationalising the ethanol blending programme by restricting diversion of sugarcane juice and molasses towards ethanol production, thereby increasing sugar availability.
- Strengthening procurement and distribution through the Public Distribution System (PDS).
These measures would aim to moderate food inflation while ensuring adequate domestic availability of essential commodities.

Source: TH

Weak Monsoon FAQs

Q1: What is El Nino?

Ans: El Nino is a climate phenomenon characterised by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, often associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India.

Q2: Which crops have been most affected by delayed kharif sowing?

Ans: Pulses, oilseeds, and cotton have witnessed the sharpest decline in acreage due to deficient rainfall.

Q3: Why does India import large quantities of edible oils?

Ans: Domestic production is insufficient to meet demand, making India dependent on imports for more than half of its edible oil consumption.

Q4: How can El Nino affect India's agriculture?

Ans: El Nino can reduce monsoon rainfall, increase temperatures, shorten winters, and adversely affect both kharif and rabi crop production.

Q5: What measures can the government take to control food inflation during poor monsoon years?

Ans: The government can release buffer stocks, reduce import duties, facilitate imports of essential commodities, strengthen procurement, and ensure adequate supplies through the Public Distribution System (PDS).