COP31 – Climate Overshoot, Carbon Budget and Climate Justice

Climate Overshoot Latest News

• COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, has renewed debate over the concept of 1.5°C climate overshoot and the need for developed countries to fulfil their emissions-reduction and climate-finance commitments.

Understanding the 1.5°C Climate Overshoot

• The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to restrict it to 1.5°C.
• Climate overshoot refers to a situation in which global temperatures temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold before potentially returning to that level by the end of the century through large-scale carbon dioxide removal.
• The concept has gained prominence in climate negotiations. However, it raises concerns about whether future carbon-removal technologies and mitigation measures can realistically reverse the effects of excessive emissions.
• The central argument is that the possibility of returning to 1.5°C should not become an excuse for delaying immediate emissions reductions.

‹ ›

Developed Countries and Unfulfilled Climate Obligations

• Developed countries have historically contributed disproportionately to global greenhouse gas emissions. However, their domestic climate actions and financial commitments remain inadequate. Major Concerns include the following:
  • Continued fossil-fuel dependence: Fossil fuels accounted for approximately 83% of primary energy consumption in the United States and 73% in the European Union in 2025.
  • Expansion of fossil-fuel projects: Countries including the US, Norway, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Australia have continued approving oil and gas exploration or extraction projects.
  • Inadequate climate finance: Although developed countries reported mobilising approximately $137 billion in climate finance in 2024, its estimated actual value was only $33–45 billion. Around 65% of public finance was provided as loans.
  • Declining adaptation finance: Adaptation finance fell to $26 billion in 2023, against an estimated annual requirement of $310-365 billion by 2035.
• These developments highlight the gap between international climate commitments and their actual implementation.

Scientific and Economic Challenges of Climate Overshoot

• The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in its report Limiting Overshoot: Navigating Exceedance of 1.5 Degrees Celsius and Pathways towards Return, examined the scale of carbon removal required to reverse temperature increases.
• The report highlighted that reversing just 0.1°C of warming would require permanently removing approximately 220 billion tonnes of CO₂ from the atmosphere.
• Current carbon-removal capacity remains inadequate:
  • Natural systems, particularly forests and soils, remove approximately 2.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually.
  • Direct air capture removes barely 2 million tonnes annually.
  • Scaling up direct air capture could cost approximately $600 per tonne of CO₂ removed.
• Moreover, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere does not necessarily reverse all the climatic consequences caused by its original emission.
• This makes reliance on future carbon-removal technologies scientifically uncertain and economically challenging.

Climate Inequity and the Global South

• A major concern surrounding climate overshoot is the unequal distribution of its costs and responsibilities.
• Large-scale carbon removal requires land, forests and other natural resources. However, much of the land identified for carbon-removal projects is located in developing countries.
• Experts highlight that national climate pledges already rely on nearly 1.2 billion hectares of land for CO₂ removal, much of it in the Global South.
• This creates several concerns:
  • Land-use conflicts: Land required for carbon-removal projects may compete with agriculture, food production and local livelihoods.
  • Unequal responsibilities: Developed countries may outsource their emissions-reduction obligations through carbon credits and projects in developing countries.
  • Development constraints: Carbon-removal projects may restrict the availability of land and natural resources needed for industrialisation.
  • Biodiversity and indigenous rights: Large-scale land-use changes can affect ecosystems and communities dependent on forests and natural resources.
• The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), covering sectors such as iron, steel, cement and aluminium, also raises concerns about the impact of unilateral climate-related trade measures on industrial development in the Global South.

Way Forward: Returning to the Basics of Climate Action

• Experts argue that COP31 must prioritise measurable climate commitments rather than relying on emerging narratives and future technological possibilities.
• Key priorities include:
  • Immediate emissions reduction: Developed countries should undertake deep and sustained domestic emissions reductions and achieve net-zero well before 2050.
  • Net-negative emissions: Countries with historically high emissions should pursue net-negative emissions within their own borders rather than relying excessively on developing countries’ forests and land.
  • Predictable climate finance: Developing countries require grant-based public finance rather than loans or uncertain private investment commitments.
  • Technology transfer: International negotiations must address intellectual property barriers that make clean technologies expensive for developing countries.
  • Carbon-budget accountability: Countries should discuss the remaining global carbon budget and their respective historical contributions to emissions.
  • Safeguards for overshoot pathways: Any proposed carbon-removal strategy must account for scientific uncertainty, technical feasibility, food security, biodiversity and indigenous communities.
• Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement is particularly relevant, as it recognises the obligation of developed countries to provide financial resources to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation.

Source: TH