India’s Carbon Storage, meaning, Key Findings, Regional Trends

A recent study published in Environmental Research: Climate suggests that India’s forests could nearly double their carbon storage by 2100, highlighting both opportunities for climate mitigation and emerging ecological risks.

What is Carbon Storage?

Carbon storage refers to the process by which carbon is absorbed and stored in natural systems such as forests, soils, and oceans.

• Forests store carbon in tree biomass, vegetation, and soil.
• This reduces the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
• It is essential for maintaining ecological balance and mitigating global warming.

Key Findings of the Study

The recent modelling study provides a detailed and future-oriented assessment of India’s forest carbon potential.

• Vegetation carbon biomass is expected to increase by about 35 percent under a low-emissions scenario, 62 percent under a medium-emissions pathway, and up to 97 percent under a high-emissions scenario by 2100.
• The study highlights that the most rapid increase in carbon storage is likely to occur after 2050.
• The increase is driven by higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, which enhance photosynthesis and water-use efficiency, along with increased precipitation that supports vegetation growth.
• The highest relative gains in carbon storage are projected in semi-arid and desert regions such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, and western Madhya Pradesh, rather than traditional forest-rich areas.
• Ecologically dense regions such as the Western Ghats and the Himalayas are expected to show relatively smaller increases due to ecological saturation and climatic pressures.

The study’s projections differ from data provided by the Forest Survey of India (FSI). FSI estimates show a steady increase in carbon stock from about 6.94 billion tonnes in 2013 to 7.29 billion tonnes in 2023, with projections of 8.65 billion tonnes by 2030. These figures are based on observed data from field surveys and remote sensing. In contrast, the new study uses long-term climate models, leading to different projections, especially for the end of the century.

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The “Masked Stress” Concern

The projected increase in carbon storage may not necessarily indicate a healthy forest ecosystem.

• Current models often do not fully account for factors such as soil nutrient limitations.
• Climate-driven disturbances like wildfires, droughts, pest outbreaks, and deforestation can weaken forests.

As a result, rising carbon storage may mask underlying ecological stress and instability. There is also a risk that stressed forests could release large amounts of stored carbon in the future.