business cycle for 19 August 2025

The business cycle is also known as economic cycle or trade cycle. It is a recurring fluctuation in the level of economic activity within an economy over a period of time.. The cycle highlights alternating periods of expansion and contractions and helps in giving insights for policymakers, businesses and investors in their decision making. In this article, we are going to cover the business cycle, its meaning, importance and types of business cycle models present in the economy.

Business Cycle Meaning

The Business Cycle shows the stages of rise and fall in the economy and reflects the fluctuations in production, employment, income and investment.
As defined by Parkin and Bade:
“The business cycle is the periodic but irregular up-and-down movements in economic activity measured by fluctuations in real GDP and other macroeconomic variables. It is not a regular, predictable, or repeating phenomenon like the swing of the pendulum of a clock. Its timing is random and largely unpredictable.”
Therefore, the business cycle is not mechanical or repetitive but is influenced by many internal and external economic factors. 

Business Cycle Phases

The phases of the business cycle represents the periods of expansion and contraction in the economy. These fluctuations can be classified into phases that are published by the RBI Bulletin based on the statistics to assess the current phase of the Indian economy. The important phases of Business Cycle are: 

1. Peak: Peak economic phase represents the highest point of economic indicators like GDP, income, employment, investment, demand. During this time, prices reach their maximum and after this growth halts. The economy is said to have peaked out. 
2. Recession: Recession is marked by a slowdown or contraction in economic activities like production, sales, income and employment. GDP, corporate profits and other indicators also fall during this time. 
3. Depression: A severe and prolonged recession lasting three or more years, or with GDP falling by 10% or more in a year. It results in low business confidence, investments and consumer demand. The Great Depression of 1929 is an example of this period. 
4. Trough : Trough is the lowest point in the cycle, where the economic activity bottoms out and marks the end of recession/depression and prepares ground for recovery.
5. Recovery: Recovery is a turnaround phase where the economy starts reviving and the GDP grows, income rises, employment increases and demand picks up. The prices remain relatively low and encourage production and consumption. 
6. Expansion: Expansion marks the first stage of a new economic cycle and is marked by steady increase in output, income, employment and sales. 
7. Boom: Boom represents the stage of prosperity and expansion and is characterised by high GDP growth, strong consumer demand, rising investments and increased commercial activity. The economy should already be recovering in other to enter this phase.
   

Business Cycle Cyclicity

During the Boom Phase, the economy experiences high growth with rising demand, investment, lending, employment, income, and living standards. However, over-utilization of resources, unsustainable lending, and shortages of labor and raw materials push costs upward. This eventually slows down expansion, leading to contraction and repeating the cycle. 

Business Cycle and Inflation Relation

The Link between Business Cycle and inflation is dynamic. During the expansion period, higher demands boosts production, often leading to inflation. During the contraction period, economic slowdown reduces demand and controls inflation.

Types of Economic Recovery Shapes

Economies recover from recessions differently, and their paths are often illustrated using alphabet-shaped curves:

• Z-Shaped Recovery - The economy rebounds sharply, surpassing pre-crash levels before returning to its growth trend. Disruptions are short, with spending capacity temporarily restricted.
  
• V-Shaped Recovery - A swift recovery where incomes and jobs are restored quickly, bringing growth back to its pre-crisis path.
  
• U-Shaped Recovery - After a fall, the economy stagnates at low growth for some time before recovering gradually; prolonged stagnation leads to an Elongated U.
  
• W-Shaped Recovery - Growth rebounds but dips again before recovering, often due to shocks like a second pandemic wave.
  
• L-Shaped Recovery -The most pessimistic scenario, where GDP never regains its previous level, causing permanent loss in productive capacity.