2025 for January 1970

Heatwaves in India: Impact on Labour Productivity, Agriculture & Economy

November 8, 2025

Heatwaves in India Latest News

India experienced an early and intense heatwave in 2025, with temperatures rising as early as late February. The early arrival of the monsoon brought some relief, but the economic and human toll of extreme heat remains severe.
According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), over 70% of global workers face heat exposure risks, with India losing an estimated $100 billion due to heat-induced productivity losses. Informal workers—such as farmers, construction labourers, street vendors, and delivery personnel—are particularly vulnerable.
Agriculture is significantly affected, as studies show that a 1°C rise in temperature can reduce wheat yields by 5.2%.

Worsening Heatwave Conditions in India

Heatwaves—periods of abnormally high temperatures—typically strike India between March and June, peaking in May.
Central, Northwest, East, and North Peninsular India are the most affected.
A report by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) shows that 57% of Indian districts, home to 76% of the population, are at high or very high heat risk.
States like Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu are particularly vulnerable.
Heat extremes have increased linearly from 1981 to 2022, with severe waves in 2013, 2016, 2019, 2022, and 2024.

Urban Heat Island Effect Intensifies Risk

Urbanisation has worsened heatwave impacts. Cities absorb and retain more heat, making nights warmer—a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect.
This reduces relief during nights, especially in Tier-II and Tier-III cities, thereby affecting sleep and overall recovery from daytime heat.

Labour and Economic Impact

India’s workforce is highly vulnerable to heat. A 2022 World Bank report states that 75% of the workforce (380 million people) is exposed to heat-intensive work.
India could face 34 million job losses due to heat stress by 2030.
Informal sector workers suffer the most, with net earnings in Delhi dropping by 40% during heatwaves.
These workers are often unable to attend work, sleep poorly, and face increased illness in their households during extreme heat.

Productivity Loss Across Sectors

Factory and blue-collar workers also experience reduced output.
A 2021 study led by Dr. Somanathan found that each 1°C increase in temperature could reduce manufacturing output by 2%.
Rising absenteeism and declining efficiency are common during hot days.
Improving worker productivity could drive employers to invest in heat-protection measures.

Rural and Agricultural Vulnerability

In rural India, summer is typically a lean farming season, but many shift to non-farm jobs like construction and road building, increasing their exposure.
Livestock are also susceptible to heat stress, especially when temperature and humidity exceed certain thresholds.
Enforcement of animal welfare guidelines remains weak among small and marginal farmers.

Compounding Effects of Climate Events

Heatwaves worsen when combined with droughts or food shortages.
Unseasonal high temperatures—like those in early March or late October—can damage crops and affect productivity even outside the peak heatwave season.

Government Measures to Tackle Heatwaves

The Central and State governments are actively addressing heatwave challenges.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), along with the Union Ministry of Home Affairs, has issued comprehensive guidelines to safeguard workers.
These emphasize education, regulated work hours, access to water, medical aid, and suitable clothing, and serve as templates for city and town-level heatwave action plans.

Localized Heat Action Plans

Many States and cities have adopted localized heat action plans, some extending down to the ward level.
These plans incorporate:
- Short-term solutions: Water stations, shaded public shelters (e.g., cool bus stops).
- Long-term strategies: Urban greening and expanding water bodies.
- For instance, Chennai has mapped urban heat islands and integrated this data into its city master plan.

Urban Focus and Rural Neglect

Most current heatwave preparedness focuses on urban areas due to their dense populations and infrastructure.
However, experts warn that rural regions face serious risks due to:

Weak Healthcare Infrastructure

Poor quality of housing
Limited access to water, electricity, and sanitation
This makes rural communities highly vulnerable to heat-related health issues.

Funding and Strategic Planning

States can utilize the State Disaster Management Fund to address immediate needs during heatwaves.
However, experts stress the importance of long-term investments and strategic planning, especially in cities, to build resilient infrastructure and execute comprehensive heat action plans.

Social Protection for Heat-Affected Workers

To safeguard incomes, especially for informal workers, mechanisms like heat insurance are being explored.
Under such models, workers contribute small premiums and receive compensation if a heatwave halts work.
However, implementation challenges remain significant.

Heatwaves in India FAQs

Q1. What is a heatwave?

Ans. A heatwave is an extended period of unusually high temperatures, especially common from March to June in India.

Q2. Which regions are most affected by heatwaves in India?

Ans. Central, Northwest, East, and North Peninsular India are most vulnerable to recurring and intense heatwaves.

Q3. How do heatwaves affect Indian labour productivity?

Ans. They reduce productivity, increase absenteeism, and cause income losses—especially among informal and outdoor workers.

Q4. What sectors face the biggest heatwave losses?

Ans. Agriculture, construction, and manufacturing sectors suffer due to heat-related stress and reduced work hours.

Q5. What measures are being taken against heatwaves?

Ans. Governments implement Heat Action Plans, improve water access, and explore insurance and compensation mechanisms for workers.

Source: TH | IE

GST Collections Reveal State-Wise Revenue Trends in October 2025

November 8, 2025

GST Collections Latest News

The Government of India reported that GST collections for October 2025 reached ₹1,95,936 crore, marking a 4.6% increase over the same month last year.
The surge, driven largely by Diwali-related festive spending, was described by the Finance Ministry as evidence that economic activity remains strong, with GST revenue continuing its upward trend.

India’s GST System: A Major Tax Reform

The Goods and Services Tax (GST), launched in 2017, replaced multiple indirect taxes such as excise duty, VAT, central sales tax, and entry tax at both central and state levels.
It was envisioned as a landmark reform to simplify taxation, improve compliance, and boost revenue by integrating India’s fragmented tax system.
GST follows a destination-based model, ensuring that tax revenue accrues to the state where goods or services are consumed rather than produced.

GST: What Changed in the Economy

Common Market & Logistics: Removal of border check posts and harmonised rules cut transit times and inventory buffers; favoured scale efficiencies and national distribution models.
Compliance Digitisation: E-way bills and e-invoicing (B2B) create a near-real-time ledger of transactions, improving invoice matching and ITC discipline; supports analytics against fake invoicing.
Formalisation: By tying ITC to tax-paid acquisitions, GST nudged firms into the formal chain, raising PAN-based registrations and digital payments; widened the data exhaust for credit underwriting.
Public Finance: IGST settlement and data granularity improved fiscal transparency.

GST: Where the Numbers Disappoint

Revenue Buoyancy: Collections have grown, yet aggregate GST yield has not consistently matched the pre-GST combined taxes in GDP terms.
State Divergence: Consumption-heavy, service-oriented states tend to do better; several manufacturing/mineral states saw relative shortfalls vs. pre-GST subsumed taxes.
Compliance Friction: MSMEs face frequent return cycles, credit reversals, and place-of-supply disputes. Inverted duty structures (inputs taxed higher than outputs) trap ITC and create refund backlogs.

October 2025 GST Collections at Record High

According to the Finance Ministry’s latest release, GST revenues reached ₹1,95,936 crore in October 2025, a 4.6% increase over October 2024.
The surge was driven by festive demand during Diwali, reflecting robust consumption.
However, behind this strong national figure lies a divergent state-wise performance.

Industrial States Lead, But 20 States See Revenue Decline

The government noted that industrial and service-oriented states — Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Haryana — together contributed over 40% of total GST collections, reaffirming their role as India’s key production and consumption hubs.
Yet, 20 states and union territories recorded a contraction in GST revenues compared to October 2024, exposing uneven revenue growth across the federation.

PRS Study: GST Revenues Lag Behind Pre-GST Regime

A study by PRS Legislative Research revealed that aggregate GST revenues remain below pre-GST levels.
- Revenue from subsumed taxes declined from 6.5% of GDP in 2015–16 to 5.5% in 2023–24.
The 15th Finance Commission had projected a GST-to-GDP ratio of 7%, a goal yet to be achieved.
For states, average SGST collections (2.6% of GDP) during the GST period have been lower than the 2.8% share from subsumed taxes in the four years before GST.
This indicates that several states are financially worse off under the GST system compared to the earlier regime.

States Gaining vs. Losing Under GST

While most states saw a decline, five northeastern states — Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Meghalaya, and Manipur — improved their subsumed tax-to-GSDP ratios compared to pre-GST years.
In contrast, Punjab, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, and Odisha experienced the largest revenue declines relative to their gross state domestic product (GSDP).

The Larger Fiscal Takeaway

India’s GST system, though efficient and unified, continues to show imbalances in state-level revenue outcomes.
While overall collections are rising, the distributional disparities between industrial and smaller states highlight the need for reforms to make GST more equitable and revenue-neutral across the federation.

Source: IE

GST Collections FAQs

Q1: What was India’s GST collection in October 2025?

Ans: It reached ₹1,95,936 crore, marking a 4.6% increase from October 2024, driven largely by festive spending during Diwali.

Q2: Which states contributed most to GST revenue?

Ans: Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Haryana together contributed over 40% of total GST collections.

Q3: Which states saw a decline in GST revenue?

Ans: Around 20 states and UTs recorded lower collections, with Punjab, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha facing notable declines relative to their GSDP.

Q4: How does current GST performance compare to pre-GST taxes?

Ans: Aggregate GST revenues remain below pre-GST levels, falling from 6.5% to 5.5% of GDP since 2015–16.

Q5: What is the key fiscal takeaway from the report?

Ans: Despite overall growth, uneven state performance highlights the need for reforms to make GST more equitable and revenue-neutral across India.

Supreme Court Orders Relocation of Stray Dogs from Public Premises

November 8, 2025

Stray Dogs Latest News

The Supreme Court has directed authorities to remove stray dogs from public spaces such as schools, hospitals, railway stations, and bus stands, and relocate them to shelters after sterilisation.

A Bench of Justices Vikram Nath, Sandeep Mehta, and NV Anjaria ordered that dogs should not be released back into the areas they were taken from.
Citing a recent attack on a foreign national in Bengaluru, the Court noted that stray dog incidents threaten public safety, discourage tourism, and tarnish India’s global image.

Animal Birth Control (ABC) Rules, 2023

The Central Government notified the Animal Birth Control Rules, 2023 under the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals Act, 1960, replacing the earlier ABC (Dog) Rules, 2001.
These Rules incorporate the directions of the Supreme Court in Animal Welfare Board of India vs. People for Elimination of Stray Troubles, which clearly stated that relocation of dogs is not permitted.

Role of Local Bodies

Implementation of the ABC programme for sterilisation and immunisation of stray dogs is the responsibility of municipal bodies, corporations, and panchayats.
They must ensure humane treatment and avoid cruelty during the process.
Effective implementation will help reduce stray dog population and address animal welfare concerns.

Joint Implementation with Anti-Rabies Programme

Municipal authorities are required to conduct the ABC and Anti-Rabies programmes jointly.
The Rules provide clear guidelines for managing human–dog conflicts without resorting to relocation of dogs from their areas.

Role of Recognised Organisations

The ABC programme must be carried out only by organisations recognised by the Animal Welfare Board of India (AWBI) for this specific purpose.
A list of approved organisations is to be published and regularly updated on the AWBI website.
Unrecognised entities are not permitted to conduct ABC operations.

Central and State Coordination

The Central Government has issued directives to all State Chief Secretaries and Principal Secretaries of Animal Husbandry and Urban Development Departments to ensure uniform implementation.
Local bodies are instructed to strictly follow the Rules and implement them in letter and spirit.

Supreme Court’s Comprehensive Order on Stray Animal Menace

Removal of Stray Dogs from Public Institutions
- The Court directed that all stray dogs be removed from educational institutions, hospitals, railway stations, and similar public premises.
- They must be relocated to designated shelters after sterilisation and vaccination, and not released back to the same areas.
Mandatory Anti-Rabies Measures
- All government and private hospitals are required to maintain adequate stocks of anti-rabies vaccines and immunoglobulin at all times to ensure immediate treatment for bite victims.
Awareness in Educational Institutions
- The Ministry of Education must instruct schools and colleges to conduct awareness sessions for students and staff on safe behaviour around animals, first-aid for bites, and immediate reporting procedures.
Appointment of Nodal Officers
- Each institution covered under the order must designate a nodal officer to ensure cleanliness, prevent stray dog entry, and maintain hygiene within the premises.
Securing Institutional Premises
- Administrative heads of institutions must ensure adequate fencing, boundary walls, and gates to prevent the entry of stray dogs and other animals into their premises.
Removal of Cattle from Highways
- Authorities have been ordered to clear all stray cattle and animals from state and national highways, as well as expressways, and relocate them to designated shelters.
Dedicated Highway Patrol and Helplines
- Governments must form dedicated patrol teams or use existing road-safety units for continuous monitoring.
- Helpline numbers should be prominently displayed along highways and expressways to allow commuters to report stray animals or related accidents.

Earlier Supreme Court Directions on Stray Dog Management

Earlier (August 11, 2025), the Apex Court had ordered Delhi-NCR authorities to pick up all stray dogs and place them in shelters without releasing them back.
This was a clear departure from the prevailing Animal Birth Control Rules, 2023, (ABC Rules) that lay down a ‘capture-sterilise-vaccinate-return’ policy.
The Bench justified this on grounds of public safety, especially for children and the elderly, and directed creation of large-capacity shelters. It also warned that obstruction by individuals or organisations would invite strict action.

August 22 Order: Shift to Regulated Management

Later, a three-judge Bench modified the earlier directive, reinstating the ABC Rules.
It ruled that dogs must be sterilised, dewormed, vaccinated, and released back into their areas—except for those infected or suspected of rabies, or showing aggressive behaviour, which should be kept in separate shelters.
Ban on Street Feeding - The same Bench prohibited feeding stray dogs in public spaces. Feeding is to be done only in designated areas identified by municipal authorities, in line with the ABC Rules and RWA consultations.
Expansion to Pan-India Scope - The Court extended the applicability of its directions from Delhi-NCR to all states and Union Territories, taking over similar matters pending before High Courts to ensure uniform enforcement nationwide.
Continuation of Key August 11 Directives - The requirement for creating dog shelters remains in force, especially for aggressive and rabid dogs.

Source: IE | IE | PIB

Stray Dogs FAQs

Q1: What did the Supreme Court order regarding stray dogs?

Ans: It ordered removal of stray dogs from public premises like schools and hospitals, relocating them to shelters after sterilisation and vaccination.

Q2: Who issued the directive?

Ans: A Bench of Justices Vikram Nath, Sandeep Mehta, and N V Anjaria passed the order to safeguard public safety and hygiene.

Q3: What are institutions required to do?

Ans: Each covered institution must appoint a nodal officer to maintain cleanliness and prevent stray dog entry on campus.

Q4: What did the Court say about highways?

Ans: Authorities must clear stray cattle and animals from highways, set up patrols, and display helpline numbers for reporting animal obstructions.

Q5: How do these directions relate to the ABC Rules, 2023?

Ans: The order modifies earlier directions but mandates sterilisation, vaccination, and sheltering in line with Animal Birth Control Rules, 2023.

The G-2 Framing & Its Implications on US-China Relations

November 8, 2025

US-China Relations Latest News

U.S. President Donald Trump’s reference to a “G-2” with China has revived debates about a potential U.S.-China duopoly, raising concerns among allies.

Introduction

When U.S. President Donald Trump announced before meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping that “THE G2 WILL BE CONVENING SHORTLY!”, it reignited debates about the future of U.S.-China relations and the possible sidelining of key allies.
The reference to the G-2, a concept implying a U.S.-China duopoly in global leadership, signals a shift in tone that could unsettle Washington’s partners in Asia and beyond.
At a time when geopolitical fault lines are already deep, this framing challenges the balance built through multilateral institutions and strategic groupings like the Quad.

The Origin of the G-2 Concept

The idea of a “G-2” was first introduced in 2005 by economist C. Fred Bergsten, then Director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
He proposed that the United States must prioritise bilateral relationships with key global actors, the European Union, China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, to stabilise global economic systems and energy flows.
Following the 2008 global financial crisis, the G-2 idea gained momentum, with Bergsten arguing that effective global economic recovery and climate action would be impossible without U.S.-China cooperation.
The concept was not intended to replace the G-20 or institutions like the IMF or WTO, but to “supplement and strengthen global governance through pre-coordination” between the two biggest economies.
Prominent thinkers also supported the idea, and even the Obama administration explored its feasibility during the early years of U.S.-China engagement under Hu Jintao.

The Changing Nature of China’s Global Posture

Two decades later, the global order has shifted dramatically.
China is no longer the cautious power that once adhered to Deng Xiaoping’s dictum to “hide your strength and bide your time.”
Under President Xi Jinping, Beijing has asserted itself across multiple domains, from the South China Sea to the Taiwan Strait and global technology infrastructure.
This transformation has redefined China’s interactions with the U.S. and its allies.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expanded its economic footprint, while its military modernisation has challenged American dominance in the Indo-Pacific.
Consequently, the Trump administration (2017-2021) was pivotal in reframing China from a “strategic partner” to a “strategic competitor.”
The 2017 U.S. National Security Strategy explicitly identified China’s actions as threats to the rules-based international order, leading to trade wars, tariff barriers, and renewed security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.

Trump’s G-2 Framing: A Return to Bilateralism

Trump’s recent embrace of the G-2 language marks a sharp contrast to his earlier confrontational stance.
While the 2017-2021 phase was characterised by decoupling and trade hostilities, the “G-2 framing” suggests recognition of China’s great-power status and potential equal footing in global decision-making.
For many U.S. partners, this framing raises concerns of strategic ambiguity.
It could signal a transactional pivot, where Washington negotiates directly with Beijing on key issues such as trade, technology, and security, potentially marginalising traditional allies.
Such bilateral prioritisation contradicts the multilateral Indo-Pacific vision promoted through the Quad (U.S., India, Japan, and Australia) and other alliances aimed at countering China’s regional assertiveness.

Global Reactions: Allies’ Concerns and Diplomatic Ripples

India
- India faces a complex diplomatic recalibration.
- The imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian goods by the Trump administration strained bilateral trade ties, leading to the postponement of the planned Quad Leaders’ Summit.
- Diplomatic discussions even hinted at a potential Quad restructuring where the Philippines could temporarily replace India, a move that reflects both India’s independent stance on global issues and Washington’s evolving calculus.
- However, given India’s growing economic and strategic weight, many observers argue that any sustainable Indo-Pacific architecture cannot exclude India.
Japan and Australia
- Both have expressed unease over the G-2 rhetoric.
- For them, the revival of the Quad in 2017 was a direct response to Beijing’s aggression in the South China Sea and its growing military presence.
- A U.S.-China rapprochement could dilute Washington’s commitments and leave allies vulnerable to unilateral shifts in American policy.
ASEAN States
- Southeast Asian countries, particularly those within the ASEAN bloc, view the development cautiously.
- While they welcome reduced tensions between Washington and Beijing, they fear that a bilateral G-2 understanding could come at their expense, potentially undermining their regional autonomy and interests.

Implications for the Global Order

If the U.S. and China move toward a G-2 model, smaller states could face strategic marginalisation.
The rules-based order, which relies on consensus-building through global institutions, may weaken as decision-making becomes concentrated between two superpowers.
Conversely, some analysts argue that even a temporary U.S.-China conciliation could help stabilise trade flows and de-escalate tensions, especially in areas such as semiconductor supply chains, climate negotiations, and global economic governance.

Source: IE | TH

US-China Relations FAQs

Q1: What does the term “G-2” signify?

Ans: “G-2” refers to a proposed U.S.-China leadership framework emphasizing bilateral cooperation on global economic and strategic issues.

Q2: Who first coined the G-2 concept?

Ans: Economist C. Fred Bergsten introduced the term in 2005 to describe key bilateral partnerships essential for global stability.

Q3: How has Trump’s G-2 framing affected U.S. allies?

Ans: It has created uncertainty among partners like India, Japan, and Australia over Washington’s long-term commitment to multilateral alliances.

Q4: Why is India central to the Indo-Pacific framework?

Ans: India’s economic size, geographic location, and strategic autonomy make it indispensable to any Indo-Pacific security architecture.

Q5: What could be the global impact of a renewed U.S.-China G-2 alignment?

Ans: It could reshape global governance by concentrating power between two major nations, potentially sidelining smaller allies and multilateral forums.