India–Russia Ties for 4 December 2025

India–Russia Ties Latest News

• India is preparing to host President Vladimir Putin for a two-day visit, even as it faces punitive U.S. tariffs over its imports of Russian oil. 
• President Putin is visiting India to attend 23rd India–Russia annual summit.
• The visit underscores New Delhi’s intent to deepen ties with Moscow. Analysts say India views Russia as a crucial partner at a time when the U.S. appears unreliable and China increasingly hostile.

Putin’s India Visits: Then and Now

• When Putin first visited India in October 2000, both countries were navigating turbulent times:
  • Putin was newly elected President.
  • India was under Western sanctions for Pokhran-II.
  • Russia was weakened after the Soviet collapse.
  • The U.S. dominated a unipolar world.
  • India–Pakistan tensions were high after Kargil and IC-814 hijack.
  • The visit came just months before the Red Fort attack (Dec 2000).
  • India and Russia were both struggling, albeit for different reasons.

Putin’s 2025 Visit: Striking Parallels, Changed Realities

• Putin’s upcoming visit (on December 4–5, 2025) — the 23rd annual summit — is his first since the Ukraine invasion (2022).
• Today:
  • Russia faces sweeping Western sanctions.
  • India faces secondary U.S. sanctions and steep tariffs on Russian oil purchases.
  • India–Pakistan tensions have resurfaced after May 2025 clashes.
  • Delhi again saw a blast near the Red Fort.
• Despite the parallels, both nations hold stronger positions than 25 years ago.

India’s Evolving Global Alignments

• In the past two decades, India has significantly expanded ties with the West:
  • Deep security and defence cooperation
  • Strong economic partnerships
  • Growing people-to-people engagement
  • Strategic alignment with the U.S. on the Indo-Pacific
• At the same time, India has retained its defence partnership with Russia, a Soviet-era legacy, while gradually diversifying to other technology providers.

Russia’s Changing Global Role

• Russia is now more isolated due to the Ukraine war but remains strategically important for India:
  • Defence cooperation
  • Energy supplies
  • Diplomatic alignment on some geopolitical issues
• Both countries, though facing external pressure, continue to pursue a relationship shaped by mutual strategic interests.

India’s Defence Dependence on Russia: Shrinking but Still Significant

• India has diversified its defence imports, but around 60% of its military equipment remains of Russian origin, requiring ongoing spares and maintenance.
• Key systems like the S-400 air defence system illustrate this reliance: Russia has delivered 3 of 5 batteries, and India now wants five more.
• However, the Ukraine war and Western sanctions have slowed Russia’s ability to supply equipment on time. 
• While European analysts say sanctions have weakened Russia’s capacity to produce advanced systems, Moscow disputes this claim.

India–Russia Oil Trade: From Discount Bonanza to Sanctions Pressure

• After the Ukraine war began, India bought discounted Russian oil, helping keep domestic fuel prices stable. 
• This pushed bilateral trade to a record $68.7 billion in FY 2024–25, but the balance is heavily one-sided — India exported just $4.9 billion, while imports, mostly oil, were $63.8 billion.
• Both countries had set a $100-billion trade target by 2030, but that goal is now uncertain.
• With U.S. tariffs, secondary sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, and shrinking cost advantages, Indian refiners are expected to cut Russian oil purchases. 
• This shift jeopardizes the trade target and places India in a strategic bind between energy security and geopolitical pressures.

What to Expect from Putin’s India Visit

• Putin’s visit to Delhi will be closely watched as India faces growing U.S. and European pressure over its ties with Russia. 
• The trip will feature high optics — a private dinner, state banquet, bilateral talks, and a CEOs’ address — echoing the warm public gestures seen earlier between Modi and Putin.
• Substantive outcomes are expected, including:
  • Progress on a labour mobility pact
  • Movement on a trade deal with the Eurasian Economic Union
  • Potential new defence purchases, including additional S-400 systems and the latest Sukhoi aircraft
  • Expanded market access for Indian goods, from perishables to pharmaceuticals
• Overall, the visit is expected to reinforce strategic cooperation even as geopolitical pressures intensify.

India’s Strategic Balancing Between the West and Russia

• India seeks deeper ties with the US and Europe for technology, investment, and ambitious trade agreements. 
• Yet Russia remains indispensable for long-term defence needs.
• Delhi is also wary of Russia’s “no-limits” partnership with China, especially with 50,000 Indian troops deployed along the tense India–China border. 
• Maintaining a careful equilibrium between these major powers remains India’s core strategic challenge.

Source: IE | CNBC