Shadow Campaigns and India’s Election Regulation Framework

Election Regulation

Election Regulation Latest News

  • Recent analysis of digital political advertisements during Assembly elections has highlighted major gaps in India’s election rules in regulating third-party and surrogate campaigners. 

India’s Election Campaign Ecosystem: A Structural Shift

  • India’s election regulations were designed for a campaign environment dominated by political parties and individual candidates. 
  • However, the contemporary electoral ecosystem has undergone a structural transformation. 
  • Political messaging and voter persuasion are increasingly mediated through digital platforms, social media, campaign consultancies, influencers, and interest groups that operate outside formal party structures.
  • This shift has weakened the effectiveness of existing election rules, which continue to focus primarily on parties and candidates, even as the real drivers of electoral influence have diversified.

Existing Legal and Regulatory Framework

  • The Election Commission of India (ECI) regulates election expenditure and political advertising mainly through the Representation of the People Act, 1951, and a set of model codes and guidelines.
  • Key regulatory mechanisms include:
    • Mandatory disclosure of election expenditure by candidates and political parties under Section 77 of the Act.
    • Pre-certification of political advertisements by the Media Certification and Monitoring Committee (MCMC).
    • Restrictions on political advertisements during the final stages of polling.
  • However, these provisions largely assume that political messaging originates from formally recognised actors, leaving limited oversight over indirect or third-party campaigning.

Emergence of Shadow Campaigns

  • Shadow campaigns refer to political communication efforts carried out by third-party actors such as digital marketing firms, ideological groups, influencers, or surrogate pages that are not officially linked to political parties or candidates.
  • An analysis of digital political advertisements during Assembly elections revealed that third-party actors often outspend official parties and candidates and achieve significantly higher visibility online. 
  • Despite spending similar amounts, third-party advertisers generated far more impressions, demonstrating greater cost efficiency and reach. 
  • This indicates that influence in digital elections depends not just on spending but also on who controls message dissemination.

Demographic Reach and Influence Patterns

  • Digital advertising data shows that both official and third-party political advertisements are primarily consumed by younger voters, particularly those aged 13-34. 
  • However, third-party campaigns display a more evenly spread reach across age groups, including older demographics.
  • This broader reach allows third-party actors to shape narratives across voter segments that traditional party messaging may not effectively penetrate, increasing their strategic importance in elections.

Financial Entanglements and Accountability Gaps

  • A major concern highlighted by the analysis is the financial relationship between political parties and third-party campaigners. 
  • In some cases, advertisements appearing on official party social media pages were funded by external entities.
  • Such expenditure may not be fully reflected in official election expenditure statements submitted to the ECI. As a result:
    • The true financial footprint of digital campaigning may be understated.
    • Electoral influence can be exercised without clear attribution or accountability.
  • This creates a bi-directional relationship where third-party actors not only amplify political messaging but also directly finance it, blurring the line between authorised and unauthorised expenditure. 

Legal Contradictions and Enforcement Challenges

  • Judicial precedents, including Supreme Court rulings, have emphasised that no individual or entity should publish political advertisements for the benefit of a party or candidate. 
  • Despite this, enforcement remains weak in the digital domain.
  • Current ECI guidelines apply restrictions mainly during the immediate pre-poll period and are often limited to print media, while digital campaigns build influence over months. 
  • Third-party actors have continued campaigning even on polling day, exposing the limitations of time-bound regulatory approaches.

Implications for Electoral Transparency and Fairness

  • The persistence of shadow campaigns poses serious challenges to electoral integrity:
    • Opaque funding channels undermine transparency.
    • Unequal digital reach distorts the level playing field.
    • Voters are influenced by actors beyond the scope of electoral accountability.
  • Unless regulatory obligations are extended to include all significant stakeholders in digital campaigning, these gaps will continue to erode trust in democratic processes.

Source: TH

Election Regulation FAQs

Q1: What are shadow campaigns in Indian elections?

Ans: Shadow campaigns are political outreach efforts conducted by third-party actors outside official party or candidate structures.

Q2: Why are shadow campaigns difficult to regulate?

Ans: They operate beyond traditional legal definitions of political parties and candidates, especially on digital platforms.

Q3: How do third-party campaigners differ from official parties online?

Ans: They often achieve greater visibility and efficiency despite similar levels of spending.

Q4: What is the main accountability concern with shadow campaigns?

Ans: Their funding and influence may not be fully disclosed in official election expenditure reports.

Q5: Why is digital election regulation time-sensitive?

Ans: Because voter influence builds over months online, not just during the immediate pre-poll period.

Beyond the Reset: India’s Diplomacy of Repair and Balance in 2026

India’s Diplomacy in 2026

India’s Diplomacy in 2026 Latest News

  • As the world enters 2026 after a turbulent 2025, India faces a critical diplomatic moment. Global geopolitics was reshaped by wars, elections, sanctions, and leadership shifts. 
  • India’s foreign policy choices in 2026 will determine its global standing, regional stability, and strategic autonomy.

Backdrop: 2025 as a Global Reset Year

  • 2025 witnessed the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, reshaping global trade, security, and alliance politics.
  • Wars in Ukraine and Gaza, renewed great-power rivalry, and erosion of trust in multilateral institutions marked the year.
  • Global politics increasingly moved towards transactionalism, tariffs, and coercive diplomacy.

India’s Position

  • India navigated a year of conflicting pressures:
    • Managing ties with the U.S. amid tariff threats.
    • Sustaining energy and defence links with Russia.
    • Maintaining stability in its neighbourhood.
  • Despite tensions, India avoided strategic isolation.

India–U.S. Relations Under Trump 2.0

  • Initial optimism following Trump’s re-election faded quickly.
  • Trump accused India of “unfair trade practices” and imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports.
  • Pressure mounted on India to reduce Russian oil imports.
  • Trade talks stalled.
  • While military and strategic cooperation continued, economic friction dominated.
  • 2026 will test whether the relationship stabilises or deteriorates further.

India–Pakistan: An Uneasy Pause

  • A terror attack in Pahalgam led India to launch Operation Sindoor.
  • Military escalation was avoided, but relations remain tense.
  • Pakistan faces internal consolidation of power under Asim Munir, raising concerns over military dominance.
  • Key Concern for India - Fragile ceasefire; Persistent terror infrastructure; Risk of sudden escalation.

Neighbourhood Diplomacy Challenges

  • Nepal: Regime Change and Instability
    • Protests and generational political churn.
    • Formation of an interim government.
    • Revival of monarchist sentiments and stronger army role.
    • India must recalibrate engagement carefully.
  • Bangladesh: Political Turmoil
    • Renewed unrest after killing of youth leader.
    • Student protests and fragile interim administration under Muhammad Yunus.
    • Elections due in 2026 amid law-and-order concerns.

West Asia: Fragile Calm, Strategic Stakes

  • Gaza War Pause
    • Temporary pause after intense conflict.
    • Direct Indian interests due to:
      • Energy security
      • Indian diaspora
      • IMEC corridor prospects
  • India’s Role - Advocates restraint, humanitarian aid, and regional stability; 2026 may offer limited diplomatic revival but risks remain high.

Ukraine War and Russia Factor

  • War Without Resolution
    • No clear end despite peace talks.
    • Trump pushes for ceasefire, but core disputes persist.
  • India’s Position - Continued engagement with Russia; Participation in Ukraine discussions while preserving strategic autonomy; Russian oil imports remain critical for inflation control.

China and Russia: Strategic Outreach

  • India engaged both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin through SCO and bilateral channels.
  • China remains the primary long-term challenge despite tactical engagement.
  • Despite talks, 60,000+ troops remain deployed on both sides of LAC.
  • Disengagement remain incomplete.

Re-engagement with China: Cautious Reset

  • Trade links expanded but mistrust remains.
  • India balances economic pragmatism with security concerns.
  • 2026 diplomacy requires avoiding escalation without conceding core interests.

Multilateral Diplomacy in 2026

  • BRICS and Quad
    • India must balance participation in BRICS with its role in the Quad.
    • Both forums reflect India’s strategic autonomy.
  • G20 Under U.S. Presidency
    • Trump’s approach may dilute multilateralism.
    • India must protect G20 gains achieved during its presidency.
  • Europe and Africa: Renewed Focus
    • Europe
      • India seeks stronger economic and strategic ties.
      • Hosting visits from EU leadership expected.
    • Africa
      • India’s goodwill remains strong.
      • Next India–Africa Forum Summit likely.
      • Countering China’s growing footprint remains a challenge.

Key Diplomatic Tests for India in 2026

  • Trade
    • Finalising or salvaging trade deal with the U.S.
    • Managing tariff pressures.
  • Energy Security
    • Sustaining Russian oil imports amid pressure.
    • Maintaining Middle East stability.
  • Technology and AI
    • Hosting global AI summit.
    • Showcasing India’s tech leadership.

Conclusion: Repair, Rebuild, Rebalance

  • 2026 is not about grand resets but careful repair:
    • Repairing strained alliances.
    • Rebuilding neighbourhood trust.
    • Rebalancing relations among rival power blocs.

SourceTH

India’s Diplomacy in 2026 FAQs

Q1: Why is India’s diplomacy in 2026 considered critical?

Ans: After global disruptions in 2025, India’s foreign policy choices in 2026 will shape its strategic autonomy, regional stability, economic interests, and global standing.

Q2: How has Trump 2.0 affected India–US relations?

Ans: Trump’s return led to tariff hikes, stalled trade talks, and pressure on Russian oil imports, creating economic friction despite continued strategic and defence cooperation.

Q3: What are India’s main neighbourhood challenges in 2026?

Ans: Political instability in Nepal and Bangladesh, fragile India–Pakistan ceasefire, and terrorism risks require careful diplomacy to prevent escalation and preserve regional stability.

Q4: How does the Ukraine war influence India’s foreign policy?

Ans: India maintains engagement with Russia, participates in peace discussions, and continues Russian oil imports to manage inflation while preserving strategic autonomy amid Western pressure.

Q5: What is India’s diplomatic strategy going forward?

Ans: India aims to repair strained ties, rebuild neighbourhood trust, and rebalance relations across rival blocs through calibrated diplomacy, economic realism, and multilateral engagement.

India’s Oil Basket: How Geopolitics Reshaped Crude Imports

India’s Oil Basket

India’s Oil Basket Latest News

  • India’s approach to energy security has steadily evolved from dependence on a few traditional suppliers to a more diversified and opportunistic sourcing strategy. 
  • Once heavily reliant on Saudi Arabia and West Asia for nearly two-thirds of its crude imports, India has progressively broadened its oil basket to balance geopolitical risks with cost advantages. 
  • In recent years, Russia has emerged as a major supplier, reflecting New Delhi’s pragmatic diplomacy—leveraging global disruptions to secure discounted crude while maintaining ties across rival blocs. 
  • Overall, India’s oil policy now prioritises flexibility, diversification, and economic prudence over fixed geopolitical alignments.

West Asia as the Backbone of India’s Oil Imports

  • Before 2005, India’s energy security rested overwhelmingly on West Asia, which supplied over 70% of its crude oil, led by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and the UAE. 
  • Although India gradually diversified its sources between 2005 and 2015—adding African suppliers like Nigeria and Angola and limited volumes from South America—West Asia remained dominant. 
  • Despite this gradual broadening, more than 60% of the crude oil imported in 2011-12 came from seven West Asian nations:
    • Saudi Arabia (About 17% of the overall basket), 
    • Iran (11.3%), Iraq (10.5%), 
    • Kuwait (7%), 
    • United Arab Emirates (9%), 
    • Oman (3.4%) and 
    • Qatar (3.3%).
  • African oil, mainly from Nigeria and Angola, formed a distant second, accounting for about one-fifth of total imports.

Iran Sanctions and the Reshaping of India’s Crude Basket

  • India’s long-standing oil ties with Iran faced a major disruption after international sanctions tightened around Tehran. 
  • In June 2010, the United Nations Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran over concerns about its expanding nuclear programme. 
  • This was followed in 2011 by unilateral sanctions from the United States, including restrictions on Iran’s Central Bank and threats to penalise foreign banks purchasing Iranian crude.
  • Under mounting external pressure, India began scaling down imports from Iran. As a result, Iran’s share in India’s crude oil basket declined sharply—from a double-digit level earlier to 7.1% in 2012–13, 5.8% in 2013–14, 5.7% in 2014–15, before a marginal rise to 6.2% in 2015–16.
  • This phase marked a crucial turning point in India’s energy diplomacy, highlighting how geopolitical sanctions directly constrained sourcing choices despite economic considerations.

Iran Sanctions, Temporary Revival, and India’s Diversification Push

  • The easing of sanctions on Iran in 2016, after compliance with the United Nations Security Council–approved nuclear agreement, briefly revived India–Iran energy ties. 
  • India increased crude imports from Iran to 12.7% in 2016–17, restoring Tehran’s position as a major supplier. 
  • However, this recovery was short-lived. After Donald Trump assumed office and reimposed US sanctions in 2017, Iran’s share in India’s oil basket declined again to just over 10% in 2017–18 and 2018–19.
  • By 2019–20, India drastically reduced Iranian crude purchases by 91.8%, reflecting both sanctions pressure and a conscious diversification strategy. 
  • New Delhi increasingly sourced oil from the United Arab Emirates and the United States, reducing vulnerability to single-source shocks.
  • At present, India’s oil import profile is far more diversified: 40–45% from the Middle East, 8–10% from Africa, and 10–12% from the Americas

Russia Emerges as India’s Largest Crude Supplier

  • A major shift in India’s oil import basket occurred in 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February that year. 
  • The conflict triggered sweeping sanctions on Moscow by the European Union and the United States, forcing Russia to redirect its crude exports at discounted prices. 
  • India and China—among the world’s largest oil consumers—continued buying Russian oil, guided by economic considerations rather than sanction regimes.

Sharp Rise in Russian Oil Share

  • According to India’s Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), Russia became the largest contributor to India’s crude basket starting FY 2022–23. 
  • Russia’s share jumped from less than 2% in 2021–22 to 21.6% in 2022–23, rising further to 35.9% in 2023–24 and 35.8% in 2024–25. 
  • Currently, around one-third of India’s total crude imports come from Russia. 
  • Importantly, Indian refineries were technically “well-suited” to process Russian crude, easing the transition.

Economics of Discounted Russian Crude

  • The surge was supported by favourable pricing. 
  • The price of Russian Urals crude fell from $79.41 per barrel in April 2022 to $66.49 per barrel in March 2025, improving refinery margins. 
  • During this period, the shares of traditional suppliers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE declined only marginally, indicating diversification rather than displacement.

Why Russian Oil Is Hard to Replace

  • As per analysts, cutting Russian oil imports would be “difficult, costly, and risky” for India. 
  • Replacing Russian crude would require rapid sourcing from multiple suppliers at higher costs due to increased freight charges and weaker discounts. 
  • Such substitution could compress refinery margins, raise retail fuel prices, fuel inflation, trigger political backlash, and strain refinery balance sheets and credit lines.

Source: TH

India’s Oil Basket FAQs

Q1: What is meant by India’s oil basket?

Ans: India’s oil basket refers to the mix of countries from which India imports crude oil, shaped by geopolitics, pricing, refinery compatibility, and long-term energy security considerations.

Q2: Why was West Asia central to India’s oil imports initially?

Ans: West Asia supplied over 70% of India’s crude before 2005 due to geographic proximity, long-term contracts, stable supply chains, and established energy diplomacy with Gulf nations.

Q3: How did Iran sanctions affect India’s oil basket?

Ans: UN and US sanctions after 2010 sharply reduced Iranian crude imports, forcing India to diversify suppliers despite favourable pricing, highlighting how geopolitics can override economic preferences.

Q4: Why did Russia become India’s largest crude supplier after 2022?

Ans: Sanctions on Russia after the Ukraine war made discounted crude available. Indian refineries were compatible, making Russian oil economically attractive and boosting its share to one-third of imports.

Q5: Why is replacing Russian oil difficult for India?

Ans: Replacing Russian crude would raise freight costs, reduce discounts, compress refinery margins, fuel inflation, and strain budgets, making continued imports economically and politically pragmatic.

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