India’s Progress on Climate Targets: Achievements and Structural Gaps

Climate Targets

Climate Targets Latest News

  • India’s progress on its climate targets is under scrutiny as recent assessments highlight a gap between emission intensity reduction and absolute emission control. 

India’s Climate Commitments under the Paris Agreement

  • At the 2015 Paris Climate Summit, India articulated its climate strategy based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities
  • Recognising its low historical per capita emissions, India committed to four major climate targets:
    • Reducing emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35% from 2005 levels by 2030
    • Achieving 40% non-fossil fuel power capacity by 2030 (later enhanced to 50%)
    • Installing 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022
    • Creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent through forests
  • These commitments aimed to balance developmental needs with climate responsibility in a growing economy.

Progress in Emission Intensity Reduction

  • India has made notable progress in reducing emissions intensity, emissions per unit of GDP. 
  • By 2020, emissions intensity had declined by around 36% compared to 2005 levels, allowing India to meet its original Paris target nearly a decade ahead of schedule.
  • This improvement has been driven by three structural factors. 
    • First, the rapid expansion of non-fossil electricity sources such as solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear significantly reduced the carbon intensity of power generation. 
    • Second, India’s economic structure has gradually shifted towards services and digital sectors, which are less emission-intensive than manufacturing. 
    • Third, national efficiency initiatives like the Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme and the UJALA LED programme have reduced electricity demand growth in industries and households.
  • However, these gains largely reflect relative decoupling, where emissions grow more slowly than GDP rather than declining in absolute terms.

Persistently High Absolute Emissions

  • Despite improvements in emissions intensity, India’s absolute greenhouse gas emissions remain high. 
  • Territorial emissions stood at approximately 2,959 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2020 and have continued to rise thereafter.
  • This highlights a key limitation of intensity-based metrics. While GDP growth has outpaced emission growth, total emissions have not declined. 
  • Sector-wise analysis reveals that emissions from cement, steel, and transport continue to increase, even as the growth rate of emissions from the power sector has moderated. 
  • As India is now the world’s third-largest emitter in absolute terms, the challenge lies in converting intensity gains into real emission reductions.

Renewable Energy Expansion and Generation Gap

  • India’s renewable energy capacity expansion has been impressive. Non-fossil fuel capacity increased from about 30% in 2015 to over 50% by mid-2025. 
  • Solar power has led this growth, rising from less than 3 GW in 2014 to over 110 GW by 2025, supported by falling tariffs and domestic manufacturing. 
  • Wind power growth, however, has been slower due to land availability, grid connectivity issues, and state-level regulatory hurdles.
  • A major concern is the gap between installed capacity and actual electricity generation
    • Although non-fossil sources account for over half of installed capacity, they contribute only around 22% of total electricity generation. 
  • Coal continues to dominate power generation because of its ability to provide stable baseload electricity. 
  • Storage limitations remain a critical bottleneck, with battery energy storage capacity far below projected requirements for the next decade.

Forest Carbon Sink and Governance Challenges

  • India is close to achieving its forest-based carbon sink target on paper. 
  • Official estimates suggest that only about 0.2 billion tonnes of additional sequestration is required to meet the 2030 goal. However, definitional and governance issues complicate this assessment.
  • The Forest Survey of India’s broad definition of forest cover includes plantations, monocultures, and tree cover outside natural forests. 
  • While this inflates carbon stock figures, it does not necessarily reflect ecological health or biodiversity restoration. 
  • Additionally, large funds under the Compensatory Afforestation Fund Act remain underutilised in several States, weakening implementation outcomes. 
  • Climate stress, including heat and water scarcity, further threatens forest productivity, especially in ecologically sensitive regions.

Source: TH

Climate Targets FAQs

Q1: What climate targets did India commit to under the Paris Agreement?

Ans: India committed to reducing emissions intensity, expanding non-fossil power, increasing renewables, and creating a forest carbon sink.

Q2: Has India met its emissions intensity reduction target?

Ans: Yes, India reduced emissions intensity by about 36% by 2020, ahead of its 2030 target.

Q3: Why are India’s absolute emissions still high?

Ans: Because GDP growth has outpaced emission growth, leading to intensity reduction without absolute emission decline.

Q4: Why does coal still dominate India’s electricity generation?

Ans: Coal provides stable baseload power, while renewables face intermittency and storage limitations.

Q5: What is the main challenge in India’s forest carbon strategy?

Ans: The challenge lies in over-reliance on plantations and weak governance rather than ecological restoration.

India’s GDP Growth – Strong Real Expansion Amid Nominal Slowdown and Data Transition

India’s GDP Growth

India’s GDP Growth Latest News

  • India’s first advance estimate of GDP for 2025-26, released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), projects a sharp rise in real GDP growth to 7.4%.
  • This is driven mainly by a rebound in manufacturing and resilient services, despite external shocks such as 50% US tariffs on Indian goods. 
  • However, nominal GDP growth is projected to slow to 8%, a five-year low, raising fiscal and budgetary implications ahead of the Union Budget 2026-27.

Key Highlights of the First Advance Estimate

  • Real vs nominal GDP growth:
    • Real GDP growth (2025-26) - 7.4% (up from 6.5% in 2024-25).
    • Nominal GDP growth - 8% (lowest in five years, excluding pandemic year).
    • Gap between real and nominal growth - 60 basis points, lowest since 2011-12.
    • This indicates low inflationary pressures or weak price growth.
  • Size of the Indian economy:
    • Nominal GDP (2025-26) - ₹357 lakh crore.
    • At an exchange rate of ₹89.89/$, GDP equals $3.97 trillion, just short of the $4-trillion economy milestone.
    • Significance: India nearing $4 trillion economy despite global volatility.
  • Sector-wise performance (supply side / GVA):
    • Manufacturing: Growth rebounds to 7% (from 4.5% last year). Despite US tariffs, domestic demand and supply-side resilience remain strong.
    • Agriculture: Growth moderates to 3.1% (from 4.6%). This reflects normalisation after a strong previous year.
    • Construction: Growth at 7% (down from 9.4%) - still robust due to infrastructure push.
    • Services: Strong expansion at 9.1% driven by new-age services, GST rate cuts (in September), and robust services exports.
  • Expenditure-side trends (demand side):
    • Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE): Growth at 7% in 2025-26 as against 7.2% in 2024-25.
    • Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Investment): It is expected to rise 7.8%, up from 7.1% growth seen last year.
    • Government Consumption Expenditure: It makes up less than a tenth of India’s GDP, and is expected to see its growth rate more than double to 5.2% this year from 2.3% in 2024-25. This is led mainly by State government spending.
  • Second-half slowdown:
    • The first advance estimate implies that GDP growth in October-December 2025 and January-March 2026 will average 6.9%, sharply down from the 7.8% and 8.2% growth rates recorded in the first two quarters.
    • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which raised its GDP growth forecast for the year by 50 bps last month to 7.3%, expects the economy to grow by 7% in October-December 2025 and 6.5% in January-March 2026.

Implications for Union Budget 2026-27

  • The first advance estimate of GDP for the year is used by the Ministry of Finance for its Budget calculations. 
  • The Role of nominal GDP: Nominal GDP growth is a critical input for tax revenue projections, fiscal deficit targets, and debt-to-GDP ratio. Slower nominal growth may constrain fiscal space, and affect revenue buoyancy.
  • Example:
    • Budget 2025-26 assumed 10.1% nominal GDP growth to fix the fiscal deficit at 4.4% of GDP.
    • Actual nominal growth (8%) fell short, but the absolute GDP target was met due to revisions.

Major Structural Change - New GDP Series

  • Shift in base year:
    • This first advance estimate will have a short shelf life because GDP data released February 27 onward will be as per a new series with a base year of 2022-23 as against 2011-12 now. 
    • Updating the base year is key to a correct picture of the economy.
  • Shift includes: New data sources, improved methodologies, and updated benchmarks.
  • Importance: Reflects structural transformation of the Indian economy.
  • Caution by MoSPI: Estimates will undergo frequent revisions, users must interpret data carefully.
  • GDP revisions timeline: The GDP growth figure for 2025-26 will continue to undergo revisions after the second advance estimate is published on February 27, with the final number available only in February 2028.

Challenges Highlighted and Way Ahead

  • Slowing nominal GDP growth: This indicates fiscal management challenges. Maintain fiscal prudence amid lower nominal growth.
  • Second-half economic slowdown: Sustain manufacturing momentum through PLI and export diversification. Strengthen investment cycle via public capex and crowding-in private investment.
  • Agricultural growth moderation: Boost agricultural productivity to stabilise rural demand.
  • External uncertainties (tariffs, global volatility): Continue structural reforms to support medium-term growth (6.5–7%).
  • Frequent data revisions may affect policy consistency: Leverage data reforms for evidence-based policymaking.

Conclusion

  • The first advance estimate for 2025-26 underscores the resilience of the Indian economy, with robust real GDP growth of 7.4% despite global headwinds. 
  • However, the sharp deceleration in nominal GDP growth raises concerns for fiscal planning and revenue mobilisation. 
  • As India transitions to a new GDP series with an updated base year, policymakers must balance growth support, fiscal discipline, and reform momentum to navigate uncertainties in 2026-27 and beyond.

Source: IE

India’s GDP Growth

Q1: How does the divergence between real and nominal GDP growth in 2025-26 impact fiscal management in India?

Ans: A lower nominal GDP growth constrains tax buoyancy and limits fiscal space for deficit and debt management.

Q2: What is the significance of the manufacturing sector rebound in India’s GDP growth for 2025-26?

Ans: The rebound reflects domestic demand resilience and supply-side strength despite external shocks like US tariffs.

Q3: Why is nominal GDP growth a crucial assumption in the Union Budget formulation?

Ans: It determines tax revenue projections and fiscal deficit targets as a percentage of GDP.

Q4: What is the rationale behind revising India’s GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23?

Ans: To reflect structural changes in the economy through updated data sources and improved methodologies.

Q5: What explains the expected second-half slowdown in India’s GDP growth during 2025-26?

Ans: Moderation in consumption and investment growth amid global uncertainties and domestic base effects.

Why Silver Soared 160% in 2025: Key Drivers Behind the Silver Price Rally

Why Silver Soared 160% in 2025

Why Silver Soared 160% in 2025 Latest News

  • Despite a sharp 10% one-day fall in late December, silver quickly rebounded, ending December with gains of over 30% and posting a remarkable rise of more than 160% in 2025.
  • Like gold, silver benefited from global trade tensions and interest-rate easing by the US Federal Reserve. 
  • However, its rally was also driven by distinct factors beyond safe-haven demand, setting it apart from gold’s more traditional ascent.

Why Silver’s Rally Is Different from Gold’s

  • Unlike gold, which is mainly valued as a store of wealth, silver benefits from diverse sources of demand. 
  • Its unique physical properties make it essential for industrial uses such as batteries, solar panels, and electronics—sectors critical to future technologies. 
  • Alongside this, silver also has strong demand in jewellery and coins. 
  • This wide mix of industrial, investment, and ornamental uses makes silver’s buyer base broader and its price dynamics more powerful than gold’s.

Supply Constraints and Geopolitics Fuel Silver’s Rally

  • Byproduct Supply and Demand Mismatch - Silver is largely produced as a byproduct of mining other metals. Its supply has failed to keep pace with rising industrial demand, tightening the market over several years.
  • US Adds Silver to Critical Minerals List - In November 2025, the United States added silver to its critical minerals list, updated by the US Geological Survey. This influences government financing and potential tariff reviews under Section 232.
  • Tariff Fears Drive Stockpiling - Even before the listing, fears of tariffs led to heavy stockpiling. Data from CME Group showed US silver inventories surged to 531 million ounces in September, far above normal levels.
  • China’s Export Curbs Add Pressure - New rare metals export restrictions by China, effective for two years, have heightened concerns, as silver is included in the controls.
  • Industry Alarm Over Supply Risks - The restrictions have worried manufacturers reliant on silver. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, warned that silver is essential for many industrial processes, underscoring supply-chain anxieties.

Fear of Missing Out Fuels Silver’s Price Spiral

  • Physical Shortages Trigger Price Spikes - Heavy US stockpiling created supply mismatches in global hubs like London, where benchmark prices are set. Shortages of physical silver by October pushed prices sharply higher.
  • Retail Momentum Joins the Rally - The Bank for International Settlements noted that trend-chasing retail investors sought to ride gold’s momentum in 2025, pulling silver into speculative buying as well.
  • India’s ETF Inflows Amplify Demand - Indian investments surged, with Association of Mutual Funds in India reporting ₹5,342 crore inflows into silver ETFs in September—far exceeding gold ETF inflows—intensifying demand for physical silver.
  • Self-Reinforcing Price Cycle - Creation of new ETF units required buying physical silver, tightening supply further. Rising prices fueled FOMO buying, which in turn pushed prices even higher.
  • Cooling Inflows, Persistent Tightness - ETF inflows eased in October and November, but supply constraints kept markets tight, sustaining silver’s elevated price levels.

Broader Commodities Rally in 2025

  • Metals Beyond Gold and Silver - The commodity surge in 2025 extended beyond precious metals. Copper crossed the $12,000-per-tonne mark for the first time, driven by US tariff fears and supply shortages similar to those affecting silver.
  • Weak Dollar and the ‘Debasement Trade’ - A weakening US dollar—down about 10% in 2025—pushed investors towards the “debasement trade”, favouring gold, silver, industrial metals, and even bitcoin as hedges against currency erosion.
  • Supportive Macro Conditions - Easing monetary policy, fiscal concerns, geopolitical risks, and declining confidence in US assets sustained demand for real assets, reinforcing the upward momentum across commodities.
  • Outlook with Volatility Risks - ANZ expects the bullish case for gold and silver to remain intact into the first half of 2026, though analysts caution that high volatility is likely after the sharp price run-up.

Source: IE

Why Silver Soared 160% in 2025 FAQs

Q1: Why silver soared 160% in 2025 despite volatility?

Ans: Why silver soared 160% in 2025 lies in industrial demand, supply shortages, tariff fears, ETF inflows, and silver’s role as both metal and investment.

Q2: How did supply constraints explain why silver soared 160% in 2025?

Ans: Why silver soared 160% in 2025 is linked to silver’s byproduct mining nature, inadequate supply growth, US stockpiling, and China’s export restrictions.

Q3: What role did ETFs play in why silver soared 160% in 2025?

Ans: Why silver soared 160% in 2025 was amplified by massive inflows into silver ETFs, forcing funds to buy physical silver and intensifying shortages.

Q4: How did global geopolitics affect why silver soared 160% in 2025?

Ans: Why silver soared 160% in 2025 includes US tariffs, critical minerals classification, China’s rare metals curbs, and geopolitical uncertainty boosting demand.

Q5: Will factors behind why silver soared 160% in 2025 continue?

Ans: Why silver soared 160% in 2025 may still support prices in 2026, though analysts warn of high volatility after the sharp commodity rally.

Madras HC Thiruparankundram Ruling: Why Security Concerns Were Rejected

Thiruparankundram Ruling

Thiruparankundram Ruling Latest News

  • The Madras High Court resolved the dispute over lighting the Karthigai Deepam lamp at Thiruparankundram hill by permitting the ritual to proceed, while barring public participation.
  • The Division Bench dismissed the Tamil Nadu government’s claims of potential communal unrest as unfounded, calling them an “imaginary” apprehension.

Background of the Thiruparankundram Dispute

  • Thiruparankundram Hill rises about 1,050 ft on the outskirts of Madurai. 
  • At its base stands the ancient Arulmigu Subramanian Swamy Cave Temple, long associated with Hindu worship. 
  • Over centuries, Jain rock beds and caves were also carved on the hill.

Sufi Dargah at the Summit

  • The summit houses the burial site of the Sufi saint Sikkandar Badhusha, around which a dargah later developed. 
  • These overlapping histories gave the hill multiple identities, including “Samanar Hill” for its Jain links and “Sikkandar Hill” after the saint.
  • Because of its shared religious significance, the hill often requires police deployment during festivals, when access and movement become contentious.

Early Legal Settlement (1920–1923)

  • A civil suit filed in 1920 by the temple Devasthanam claimed ownership of the entire hill. 
  • In 1923, the trial court ruled that: 
    • Most of the unoccupied hill and pilgrim path belonged to the temple; 
    • The topmost peak, the area around the mosque, Nellithope, and the steps leading to it were Muslim property—an arrangement that underpins later disputes.

Earlier Disputes at Thiruparankundram

  • Recurring Litigation Over Ritual Practices - Legal disputes over Thiruparankundram have persisted for decades, reflecting sensitivities around ritual practices and shared access to the hill.
  • Flagstaff and Animal Sacrifice Controversies - In 2021, a dispute arose over replacing a wooden flagstaff at the dargah with an iron one. 
    • In early 2025, an attempt to perform animal sacrifice at the hilltop led to litigation; a three-judge Bench prohibited it, noting the hill’s status as a protected monument under the Archaeological Survey of India rules.
  • History of Restrictions on Lamp Lighting - Court records show that attempts to light lamps near the summit were stopped by authorities in the 19th and early 20th centuries, citing lack of established custom and public order concerns.
  • High Court Directions in the 1990s - The issue resurfaced in 1994 when volunteers sought to light the Karthigai Deepam at the peak. 
    • In 1996, the High Court directed that the Deepam be lit at the Uchipillaiyar Temple mandapam, permitting alternate locations only if they were at least 15 metres away from the dargah, the flight of steps, and the Nellithope area.
  • Present Dispute - The current case revisits this long-standing issue, focusing specifically on the lighting of a festival lamp at the hilltop under tightly regulated conditions.

Trigger for the 2025 Thiruparankundram Dispute

  • Petition to Light the Karthigai Deepam - In late November 2025, a group of worshippers approached the Madras High Court seeking permission to light the Karthigai Deepam on December 3 at a stone pillar on Thiruparankundram, locally known as the “Deepathoon.”
  • Single Judge’s Order - A Single Judge allowed the plea, treating it as restoration of a religious practice. 
    • The court directed the temple management to light the lamp with police assistance, noting that Karthigai is a festival of lights celebrated beyond temple interiors.
    • When the temple’s Executive Officer flagged law-and-order concerns, the Single Judge initiated contempt proceedings and permitted a small team to climb the hill under security cover.

State Government’s Objections

  • The State government and the Hindu Religious and Charitable Endowments Department challenged the order, arguing that disputes over custom and usage must be decided under the HR&CE Act, not via writ proceedings.
  • The State questioned whether the Deepathoon had religious significance at all, suggesting it could be a survey marker or a remnant linked to Jain usage.
  • Citing crowd control and public peace concerns, police imposed prohibitory orders. As a result, the lamp was not lit on the festival day.

Appeals Filed

  • The State, the HR&CE Department, and representatives of the dargah appealed the Single Judge’s order, bringing the matter before a Division Bench for final resolution.

What the Madras High Court Division Bench Ruled

  • Deepathoon Recognised as Ritual Structure - The Division Bench held that the structure in question was indeed a Deepathoon, noting its carved cavity suitable for oil and wicks, and rejected the State’s claim that it was merely a survey marker.
  • Rejection of Law-and-Order Fears - The court dismissed the administration’s security concerns as an “imaginary ghost,” observing that allowing a small team of temple officials to access the hill once a year was manageable. 
    • It remarked that any disturbance would arise only if “sponsored by the State itself.”
  • Restricted Performance of the Ritual - While upholding the ritual, the Bench modified the earlier order by restricting the lighting of the lamp to a limited Devasthanam team, with no public access to the hilltop.
  • Coordination and Heritage Safeguards - The District Collector was directed to coordinate the exercise, ensuring compliance with conditions set by the Archaeological Survey of India to protect the monument.

Source: IE | ToI

Thiruparankundram Ruling FAQs

Q1: What is the Madras HC Thiruparankundram ruling about?

Ans: The Madras HC Thiruparankundram ruling concerns permission to light the Karthigai Deepam at Thiruparankundram hill while rejecting the State’s law-and-order apprehensions.

Q2: Why did the Madras HC reject security fears in the Thiruparankundram ruling?

Ans: The Madras HC Thiruparankundram ruling held that security fears were imaginary and that a small, controlled ritual posed no real threat to public order.

Q3: What restrictions did the Madras HC impose in the Thiruparankundram ruling?

Ans: Under the Madras HC Thiruparankundram ruling, only a limited Devasthanam team may light the lamp, with no public access and ASI conditions enforced.

Q4: How did the Madras HC define the Deepathoon in its ruling?

Ans: The Madras HC Thiruparankundram ruling recognised the Deepathoon as a ritual lamp structure, rejecting the State’s claim that it was merely a survey marker.

Q5: Why is the Madras HC Thiruparankundram ruling significant?

Ans: The Madras HC Thiruparankundram ruling balances religious practice, heritage protection, and public order, limiting executive overreach based on speculative security fears.

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