School Enrolment Declines Amid Falling Birth Rates & Demographic Shifts

School Enrolment Latest News

•  India’s school enrolment fell by 25 lakh in 2024-25, with UDISE+ data linking the decline to falling birth rates and rising preference for private schools.

Introduction

• India’s school enrolment figures have witnessed a concerning decline for the third consecutive year. 
• According to the latest Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) data released by the Ministry of Education, total enrolment of students aged 3 to 11 dropped by nearly 25 lakh in 2024-25 compared to the previous year. 
• Overall, total enrolment across Classes 1-12 fell by 11 lakh students, marking the lowest level since 2018-19. 
• While falling birth rates are a primary reason, migration patterns, demographic transitions, and the expansion of private schools are shaping India’s changing education landscape.

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Trends in School Enrolment

• The UDISE+ 2023-24 report recorded 12.09 crore students in foundational and preparatory stages. 
• This number declined to 11.84 crore in 2024-25, registering a dip of 24.93 lakh students. 
• Similarly, total enrolment across schools (Classes 1-12) dropped from 24.80 crore in 2023-24 to 24.69 crore in 2024-25. This continuing decline marks a structural shift in India’s school-age population.
• While government schools have seen steady reductions in enrollment, private schools have registered growth. 
  • Government school enrolment declined from 13.62 crore in 2022-23 to 12.16 crore in 2024-25, while private schools saw a rise from 8.42 crore to 9.59 crore over the same period. 
• This reflects parents’ increasing preference for private institutions despite higher costs.

Causes Behind the Decline

• Falling Birth Rates
  • A major driver of this enrollment dip is India’s declining fertility rate. The National Family Health Survey 2021 reported India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at 1.91, below the replacement level of 2.1. 
  • Except for states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Meghalaya, most have fertility rates below replacement levels. 
  • With fewer children being born, the natural pipeline of primary school-age students has shrunk.
• Data Accuracy and Methodology Changes
  • The enrollment decline since 2022-23 also coincides with a new methodology adopted by UDISE+, which now records individual student data rather than aggregated school-level numbers. 
  • This change weeded out duplicate entries, contributing to a more accurate, though lower, enrollment figure.
• Migration and Private Sector Expansion
  • Migration to urban centres and the increasing prevalence of standalone private pre-primary institutions have influenced enrolment statistics. 
  • Many children are now being enrolled in private nurseries and preschools outside the government data system, further explaining the decline in official numbers.

Positive Indicators Amid Decline

• Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER): GER at the middle school level improved from 89.5% in 2023-24 to 90.3% in 2024-25, and at the secondary level from 66.5% to 68.5%. This suggests that a higher proportion of eligible children are staying within the school system.
• Reduced Dropout Rates: Dropout rates have consistently fallen. In preparatory stages, dropouts reduced from 3.7% in 2023-24 to 2.3% in 2024-25. Similarly, in secondary schools, dropout rates dropped from 10.9% to 8.2%.
• Improved Gender Balance: While enrolment among boys slightly decreased, enrolment among girls remained stable and even saw marginal improvement.
• Teacher-Student Ratios: Teacher availability has improved significantly. At the foundational level, the teacher-student ratio improved from 1:15 in 2014-15 to 1:10 in 2024-25, indicating better learning conditions.

Long-Term Implications

• The consistent decline in enrolment reflects broader demographic transitions in India. 
• As the country edges towards an ageing society, education policies will need to adapt to shrinking cohorts of young learners. 
• This could allow for more investment per student, higher-quality learning environments, and a focus on improving learning outcomes rather than expanding enrolment.
• At the same time, the rising preference for private schools underscores the need for policy reforms in government schooling. 
• Strengthening infrastructure, ensuring accountability, and raising teaching standards will be crucial to retaining enrolment in public schools. 
• Additionally, once Census 2026 data becomes available, the true extent of demographic changes and their implications for India’s education system will be clearer.

Source: TH