India–US Trade Reset – Reduced Tariffs, Strategic Bargains and the China Factor

India-US Trade Reset Latest News

• After months of tariff-driven tensions, India–US economic relations have witnessed a significant thaw following a telephonic conversation between the Indian Prime Minister and the U.S. President. 
• The U.S. has agreed to reduce its reciprocal tariff on “Made in India” products to 18%, down sharply from an effective 50% imposed in 2025. 
• The announcement signals a possible reconfiguration of India–US trade ties amid global supply chain realignments and geopolitical churn.

Key Developments

• Reduction in U.S. tariffs on Indian goods:
  • The U.S. will reduce reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports from 50% to 18%.
  • This includes rollback of 25% Liberation Day tariffs, and an additional 25% penalty imposed due to India’s import of Russian oil.
  • The Indian PM termed this a boost to Make in India, improving market access for Indian exports.
• Claim of a broader trade deal:
  • President Trump announced that India and the U.S. have “agreed” to a trade deal.
  • According to Trump, India has committed to reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers on U.S. goods (claimed to be moving towards “zero”), purchasing over $500 billion worth of U.S. products, including –
    • Energy (natural gas, coal),
    • Technology,
    • Agricultural goods, and
    • Nuclear equipment.
  • For perspective, India’s total goods imports in FY25 were $720.24 billion.
• Energy and geopolitics:
  • Trump claimed that India has agreed to stop buying Russian oil, increase imports from the U.S. and potentially Venezuela.
  • These assertions have not yet been officially confirmed by India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).
  • The claims link trade concessions to broader U.S. strategic objectives, including ending the Russia–Ukraine war.
• Strategic timing and diplomatic context:
  • The announcement coincided with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to the U.S. (Feb 2–4).
  • He is participating in the Critical Minerals Ministerial, focused on supply chain resilience, clean energy transition, and reducing dependence on China in critical minerals.
  • India, the U.S., and other mineral-rich countries are expected to sign a non-binding framework covering mining, processing, recycling, and pricing mechanisms.

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Strategic Significance

• India as a counterweight to China:
  • The tariff cut reinforces the U.S. view of India as a strategic ally and counterweight to China.
  • With Western economies imposing anti-dumping duties and trade restrictions on Chinese products, India gains a relative advantage in accessing U.S. and EU markets.
• Macroeconomic and market implications:
  • The deal was seen as critical amid concerns over capital outflows, pressure on the rupee.
  • Expectations include improved investor sentiment, potential strengthening of the rupee, and a positive market response.
• India’s expanding trade footprint:
  • With trade arrangements now in place with the U.S., UK, and EU, India is better positioned than many East Asian economies that rely heavily on Chinese investment.
  • A tentative thaw in India–China trade relations adds another layer of complexity.

Challenges and Concerns

• Ambiguity in the fine print:

• • The actual benefits depend on the detailed terms of the agreement, which remain unclear.
  • Past experience suggests that U.S. negotiations under President Trump tend to be extractive.
• Energy and strategic autonomy: Any formal commitment to halt Russian oil imports could constrain India’s strategic autonomy and energy security.
• Dependence on China: India’s imports from China exceeded $112 billion last year. China’s dominance in rare earth elements has already impacted Indian sectors such as automobiles.
• Risk of Chinese retaliation: China has warned of consequences if trade agreements are concluded at its expense, raising concerns of indirect economic or supply-chain retaliation.
• Domestic political reactions: The opposition criticised the move, alleging India had “capitulated” under U.S. pressure.

Way Forward

• Clarity and transparency: India must ensure that commitments—especially on tariffs, energy imports, and non-tariff barriers—are clearly defined and mutually balanced.
• Leverage export: Leverage improved access to the U.S. market to boost manufacturing, value-added exports, and employment.
• Supply chain diversification: Use platforms like the Critical Minerals Ministerial to reduce dependence on China.
• Strategic balancing: Maintain autonomy in energy sourcing and foreign policy while deepening ties with the West.
• Domestic capacity building: Align trade gains with Make in India, PLI schemes, and MSME competitiveness.

Conclusion

• The reduction of U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18% marks a decisive reset in India–US trade relations and underscores India’s rising strategic relevance in a fragmented global trade order. 
• While the move opens significant economic and geopolitical opportunities, its long-term value for India will hinge on the fine print, preservation of strategic autonomy, and the ability to convert improved market access into sustained export-led growth.

Source: TH | IE