India’s Power Sector – Transitioning From Coal Backbone to Renewable Dominance For Net Zero

India’s Power Sector Latest News

• A new study by NITI Aayog titled “Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero” outlines possible pathways for India’s electricity transition up to 2070.
• While coal currently dominates India’s electricity generation, the report projects a long-term structural shift toward renewable energy (RE).
• This shift will be supported by nuclear expansion, storage technologies, and possible decarbonisation of coal through Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS).
• The study examines two pathways: Current Policy Scenario (CPS) – Continuation of existing policies, and Net Zero Scenario (NZS) – Accelerated pathway aligned with India’s 2070 net-zero target.

Present Electricity Landscape – Coal Still the Backbone

• Coal accounts for about 74% of electricity generation, providing low-cost base-load power, grid stability, and round-the-clock reliability.
• Installed capacity (December 2025):
  • Total: 513 GW
  • Fossil-based: 48%
  • Renewable: 50%
  • Nuclear: 1.7%
• However, despite renewables constituting 50% of installed capacity, their contribution to actual electricity generation remains only about 22% (2024-25).

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Structural Constraints in Renewable Energy

• The gap between renewable capacity and actual generation is due to following structural challenges –
  • Low capacity utilisation factor (CUF): Solar and wind operate below maximum potential output.
  • Intermittency and variability: Solar and wind are weather-dependent, leading to curtailment, dispatch challenges, and grid instability risks.
  • Grid constraints: Limited transmission capacity, and inadequate system flexibility.
  • Storage deficit: Lack of large-scale long-duration energy storage. 
• Because of these constraints, coal continues to provide essential balancing power.

Electricity Mix Projections up to 2070

• Under CPS:
  • Renewable share in generation is expected to increase from 20% (2024-25) to over 80% (2070). The respective share of coal and nuclear will be coal share [74% → 6–10%], and nuclear [3% → 5–8%].
  • Coal capacity may rise from 268 GW (2025) to peak at 450–470 GW by 2050, and gradually decline afterward.
• Under NZS:
  • Coal-based generation could fall to zero by 2070, and coal capacity may peak earlier at 420–435 GW by 2045, and decline sharply thereafter.
  • Renewables become the dominant backbone of the grid.

Massive Storage Expansion Required

• A renewables-heavy grid demands unprecedented storage capacity.
• Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) to scale up from less than 50 GW in 2030 to about 1,300-1,400 GW under CPS and up to 2,500-3,000 GW under NZS by 2070.
• Pumped Storage Plants are also expected to play a crucial role in providing long-duration storage and grid stability, growing from 13-19 GW in 2030 to about 110 GW in CPS and 150-165 GW in NZS.
• Storage becomes central to grid reliability, load balancing, and round-the-clock power supply.

Nuclear Power as Strategic Pillar

• Targets:
  • The study identifies nuclear energy as crucial in a renewable-dominated grid.
  • It projects nuclear power capacity to grow from the current 8.18 GW in 2025 to 90-135 GW by 2070 under CPS — an increase of 10 to 15 times.
  • Under the NZS, nuclear capacity could touch 295-320 GW. 
• Key roles of nuclear energy:
  • Firm low-carbon base-load power
  • Industrial high-temperature heat
  • Power supply for green hydrogen electrolyzers
  • Grid balancing support
• The report recommends:
  • Advanced reactors
  • Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
  • Transition of captive coal plants to SMRs. This helps reuse existing land, transmission connectivity, and industrial infrastructure.

Coal’s Continuing Role in Transition

• Despite the clean energy push, coal remains indispensable in the near to medium term because storage remains expensive; nuclear projects have high capital cost, long gestation period; and renewables face land and clearance challenges.
• In some pathways, coal continues even in 2070 with deep decarbonisation via:
  • CCUS: Captures CO₂ from coal plants. Stores underground or reuses it. Prevents atmospheric emissions.
  • This pathway becomes relevant if nuclear expansion slows, renewable deployment faces cost or grid barriers.

Alternative Pathway Risks

• If nuclear growth remains limited, solar capacity may need to exceed 5,500 GW, storage requirements would rise dramatically, and grid stability risks would intensify.
• This creates financial stress, infrastructure bottlenecks, and land acquisition challenges.

Challenges and Way Forward

• Intermittency of renewables: Rapid scale-up of BESS and Pumped Storage. Improve market mechanisms for flexible dispatch.

• High storage costs: Develop domestic manufacturing ecosystem for storage technologies. Promote CCUS research and pilot deployment.

• Grid infrastructure inadequacy: Accelerate grid modernization and transmission expansion.

• Nuclear capital intensity: Fast-track nuclear expansion including SMRs. Encourage industrial shift to nuclear-based captive power.

• Managing stranded coal assets: Strategic planning to avoid stranded coal assets.

Conclusion

• India’s electricity transition will not be a simple coal-to-solar swap. It will require a carefully calibrated mix of renewables, storage, nuclear expansion, grid reform, and transitional coal support.
• Coal may remain the backbone in the medium term, but by 2070, renewables — supported by large-scale storage and nuclear power — could decisively reshape India’s energy architecture.
• The real challenge lies not in installing capacity, but in ensuring reliability, flexibility, affordability, and system stability in a net-zero compatible electricity grid.

Source: IE