Fertility Rate in India, Trends, Causes, Policy Implications

India, long viewed as the arche­type of a ‘high-fer­til­ity devel­op­ing coun­try’, has quietly become a ‘rel­at­ively low-fer­til­ity soci­ety’. According to NFHS-5 (2019-21), India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 2.0, indicating a major demographic shift with important economic and social implications.

What is Fertility Rate and Replacement Level?

Fertility rate refers to the average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive years. The replacement level fertility is generally considered to be 2.1 children per woman, which ensures that a population replaces itself from one generation to the next without migration.

A fertility rate above replacement leads to population growth, while a rate below replacement over a long period may result in population ageing and decline.

Transition in Fertility Rate in India

In the early decades after independence, fertility levels were very high. During the 1950s and 1960s, the Total Fertility Rate was around 5.9, reflecting large family sizes and limited access to healthcare and family planning.

With the expansion of family planning programmes, improvement in female education, and urbanisation, fertility rates began to decline steadily. By 1992-93 (NFHS-1), the TFR had reduced to around 3.4.

Further decline was observed in subsequent surveys:

• NFHS-2 (1998-99): TFR around 2.9
• NFHS-3 (2005-06): TFR around 2.7
• NFHS-4 (2015-16): TFR around 2.2
• NFHS-5 (2019-21): TFR 2.0, below replacement level

This transition is also reflected in regional patterns. States such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Punjab reached replacement fertility much earlier, while states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh witnessed a slower decline but are now also approaching replacement levels.

Thus, India has moved from a high fertility society to a low fertility society, marking an important phase in its demographic transition.

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Factors Driving the Decline in Fertility Rate

Several structural and socio-economic factors have contributed to the decline in fertility rates in India.

• Rising Female Education and Delayed Marriages
  • Female literacy has risen from about 39% in 1991 to nearly 70% in 2021. Educated women tend to marry later and prioritise education and employment. 
  • The median age at marriage for women increased from 17.2 years (NFHS-1) to 19.7 years (NFHS-5), which shortens the reproductive period and leads to fewer births.
• Improvement in Child Mortality
  • The under-five mortality rate has declined from 109 per 1,000 live births in NFHS-1 to around 42 in NFHS-5.
  • Improved child survival reduced the need for “precautionary fertility”, where families earlier had more children due to high child mortality.
  • Improvements in healthcare, vaccination programmes, nutrition schemes such as Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS), and institutional deliveries have greatly reduced child mortality.
• Urbanisation and Changing Aspirations
  • High cost of raising children, housing constraints, and career aspirations and shift from joint families to nuclear families encourage couples to prefer smaller families.
  • Shift from “having many children” to “investing more in fewer children” – parents now prefer to have fewer children so that they can provide better opportunities and quality education to them.
• Increased Access to Family Planning
  • Government awareness campaigns and family planning messages such as “Hum Do, Hamare Do” have also influenced social attitudes towards smaller families.
  • The use of modern contraceptives increased from about 36.5% in NFHS-1 to around 56.5% in NFHS-5. Access to contraceptives has allowed couples to make informed reproductive choices.

Implications of Declining Fertility Rate in India

The declining fertility rate in India has far-reaching implications for economic growth, population structure, and public policy.

• Demographic Dividend: Declining fertility increases the share of the working-age population, creating a favourable dependency ratio. This offers an opportunity for faster economic growth through higher labour participation, savings, and investment in human capital. However, this benefit can be realised only if sufficient jobs and productive employment are created.
• Ageing Population: As fertility declines, the proportion of elderly people gradually increases. This will raise the demand for pensions, geriatric healthcare, and long-term care systems. With the gradual weakening of the traditional joint family system, the burden on formal welfare institutions may increase.
• Rising Internal Migration: Differences in fertility levels across regions may lead to increased internal migration. Younger workers from high-fertility and relatively poorer states are likely to move to low-fertility states with ageing populations and labour shortages, shaping India’s internal economic structure.
• Changing Policy Priorities: Earlier, public policy focused on population control. With declining fertility, the focus is shifting toward managing issues such as employment generation, ageing population, migration management, and building social security and healthcare systems suitable for a low-fertility society.

Way Forward

As the fertility rate in India declines to near replacement level, policy focus must shift towards managing demographic transition and ensuring sustainable population growth.

• Invest in Human Capital: Improve education, skills, and healthcare so that the working-age population becomes more productive and contributes to economic growth.
• Create Employment Opportunities: Promote labour-intensive industries and expand job creation to fully utilise the demographic dividend.
• Prepare for an Ageing Population: Strengthen pension systems, geriatric healthcare, and social security to support the growing elderly population.
• Address Regional Imbalances: Promote balanced regional development and facilitate smooth internal migration to meet labour shortages in low-fertility states.