Daily Editorial Analysis 14 November 2025

Donald Trump Shakes Up the Global Nuclear Order

Context

• The global nuclear landscape today is marked by a profound contradiction. On one hand, the world has not witnessed the use of nuclear weapons since 1945, and global stockpiles have declined dramatically.
• On the other, the international nuclear order is under severe strain, as treaties weaken and geopolitical tensions rise.
• Recent actions, especially those involving the United States under President Donald Trump, threaten to undermine decades of painstaking progress.

Achievements Under Strain

• At first glance, the evolution of nuclear governance seems impressive.
• Nuclear arsenals have fallen from 65,000 warheads in the late 1970s to fewer than 12,500 today, and the number of nuclear-armed states has stabilised at nine, far below earlier predictions.
• The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has played a central role in limiting proliferation.
• Yet despite these successes, the prevailing sense is that the nuclear order is fraying.
• Once reinforced by clear norms and strong arms-control frameworks, it now faces mounting pressure from political shifts, technological competition, and eroding trust.

Ambiguity and Escalation: Trump’s Nuclear Testing Announcements

• President Trump’s October 2025 declaration that the U.S. would resume testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis with Russia and China ignited global concern.
• The ambiguity surrounding his words, whether he referred to explosive tests or systems tests, created alarm, especially given the tense strategic environment.
• His comments also revealed confusion regarding the institutional management of nuclear testing, referring incorrectly to the Department of War.
• Nevertheless, the announcement aligned with a broader pattern: all major powers are involved in nuclear modernisation, signalling a new era of destabilising technologies.
• Russia’s tests of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile and the Poseidon underwater nuclear drone, along with China’s advances in hypersonic glide vehicles, exemplify this shift.
• Meanwhile, the U.S. is producing new low-yield warheads, weapons widely viewed as more ‘usable’, thereby threatening the long-standing nuclear taboo.

The CTBT: A Norm Without Force

• The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), intended to prohibit all nuclear explosions, remains unenforced nearly three decades after its negotiation.
• Although 187 states have signed it, key nuclear powers, including the United States and China, have not ratified it, while Russia withdrew its ratification in 2023.
• A major flaw lies in the lack of a definition of nuclear test. The U.S. pushed for flexibility, allowing zero-yield subcritical tests and thereby creating room for differing interpretations.
• As a result, the CTBT established only a partial norm, not a fully enforceable prohibition.
• The U.S. allegation in 2019–20 that Russia and China may have conducted low-yield tests deepened mistrust, even though the CTBT’s own monitoring system found no evidence of violations.

A Renewed Arms Race and Its Global Consequences

• The world stands on the verge of a new nuclear arms race.
• The New START treaty, the last remaining U.S.–Russia arms-control agreement, will expire in February 2026, with no replacement in sight. Meanwhile, China’s nuclear arsenal is expanding rapidly, expected to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030.
• A resumption of nuclear-explosive testing, especially by the United States, would trigger cascading reactions:
  • China, having conducted only 47 tests, would gain valuable data.
  • India and Pakistan would likely resume testing to validate new designs.
  • North Korea could seize the opportunity to perfect its arsenal.
  • Other potential nuclear aspirants may view the breakdown of norms as permission to begin weapons programmes.
• Thus, the collapse of the CTBT norm risks the unravelling of the wider NPT-based non-proliferation system.

Technological Shifts and Doctrinal Uncertainty

• Emerging technologies, hypersonic missiles, dual-use unmanned platforms, low-yield warheads, and new capabilities in cyber and space domains, are reshaping nuclear strategy.
• These developments shorten decision-making time, increase the risk of misinterpretation, and blur the lines between conventional and nuclear conflict.
• In such an environment, any weakening of the nuclear taboo becomes extremely dangerous.

The Taboo and the Task Ahead

• For decades, the unwritten yet powerful rule that nuclear weapons must never be used has anchored global stability.
• But this nuclear taboo is not self-sustaining. It relies on political restraint, robust institutions, and sustained diplomatic engagement, conditions now in decline.
• The irony is stark: the United States, long the principal architect of the nuclear order, may now become the catalyst for its disintegration.
• As the UN Secretary-General warns of alarmingly high nuclear risks, the world faces a critical challenge: to rebuild and adapt the nuclear order for the fractured geopolitics of the 21st century while ensuring that the prohibition on nuclear use remains intact.

Conclusion

• The stability of the nuclear order is not guaranteed. It is the product of deliberate choices, shared norms, and cooperative frameworks that are now eroding.
• President Trump’s remarks on resuming nuclear testing highlight the fragility of the system: with each rhetorical or policy shift, the world edges closer to a renewed era of nuclear brinkmanship.
• The international community must act decisively to preserve and modernise the nuclear order. The stakes could not be higher: ensuring that nuclear weapons remain forever unused.

Donald Trump Shakes Up the Global Nuclear Order FAQs

 Q1. Why is the current global nuclear order considered contradictory?
Ans. It is considered contradictory because nuclear weapons have not been used for 80 years and arsenals have shrunk, yet the international nuclear order is now under severe strain.

Q2. What recent action by President Trump raised concerns about nuclear stability?
Ans. President Trump raised concerns by announcing that the United States would resume nuclear testing to match Russia and China.

Q3. Why has the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) not entered into force?
Ans. The CTBT has not entered into force because several key states, including the United States and China, have not ratified it.

Q4. What effect could the resumption of nuclear-explosive testing have globally?
Ans. The resumption of nuclear-explosive testing could trigger a new arms race and encourage countries like China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea to resume or expand testing.

Q5. What major challenge does the international community face regarding nuclear weapons?
Ans. The major challenge is to build a new nuclear order suited to current geopolitics while ensuring that the taboo against nuclear use remains intact.

Source: The Hindu

The Tamil Nadu Model of Sub-State Climate Action

Context

• Tamil Nadu’s climate strategy is built on ground-level leadership, ensuring policies translate into measurable action.
• To achieve this, the State established the Tamil Nadu Green Climate Company (TNGCC), one of India’s earliest dedicated climate coordination agencies.
• Through four missions — the Climate Change Mission, Green Tamil Nadu Mission, Wetlands Mission, and Coastal Restoration Mission — TNGCC leads efforts in reducing emissions, restoring ecosystems, and strengthening community livelihoods.
• This article explains how Tamil Nadu is creating a strong model for climate action at the district level.
• It shows how leadership on the ground, new climate institutions, detailed planning of emissions, and active community participation are helping the State move toward a net-zero future much before 2070.

Tamil Nadu’s Net Zero Roadmap: Ambition Ahead of 2070

• Tamil Nadu has released a comprehensive Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventory (2005–2019) and a detailed Net Zero Pathway to achieve net zero well before India’s 2070 target.
• The inventory shows promising trends: though highly industrialised, Tamil Nadu contributed only 7% of India’s total emissions in 2019 and reduced its emission intensity to GDP by nearly 60% since 2005.
• Key Drivers of Emission Reduction
  • The State’s progress comes from strong sectoral interventions such as rapid expansion of renewable energy, improved energy efficiency, industrial decarbonisation, and an ambitious electric-mobility programme aimed at electrifying all public transport.
  • Renewable energy now makes up 60% of installed power capacity and 30% of total electricity generation in the State.
• Bottom-Up Climate Action: District-Level Decarbonisation
  • Tamil Nadu has launched a bottom-up climate action framework, including district-level decarbonisation plans and a real-time Climate Action Tracker developed with the Vasudha Foundation.
  • Four pilot districts — The Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Ramanathapuram and Virudhunagar — show potential to abate up to 92% of projected emissions by 2050 through clean energy, mobility transition, industrial efficiency and nature-based solutions.
  • These districts can also sequester nearly three million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent by 2050.
• Climate Risks: The Need for Urgent Action
  • The district Climate Action Plans are based on detailed GHG inventories and climate variability assessments.
  • Findings warn that if emissions remain unabated, warm days could rise by nearly 95% by 2100, accompanied by higher precipitation and wetter monsoons.
  • The impacts would be especially severe in vulnerable regions like The Nilgiris.

Sectoral Drivers of Emissions in Tamil Nadu’s Pilot Districts

• GHG emissions vary across the four pilot districts.
  • Nilgiris & Coimbatore: Road transport is the highest contributor (43% and 36%), followed by residential energy (20% and 12%).
  • Virudhunagar: Cement (37%), road transport (20%), and industrial energy (16%) dominate emissions.
  • Ramanathapuram: Public electricity generation (28%) and rice cultivation (12%) are major contributors.
• Using emissions trajectories and sector analysis, the action plans outline yearly, shovel-ready projects from 2025 in areas such as electric mobility, waste management, forest restoration and industrial decarbonisation.
  • Nilgiris: Can reach net zero by 2030 under a moderate scenario.
  • Ramanathapuram: Can achieve net zero by 2047 under an aggressive pathway requiring lifestyle shifts.
  • Coimbatore & Virudhunagar: With higher industrialisation, they can become net zero by 2055.
• The approach positions climate action as a catalyst for green growth that protects both people and nature, rather than viewing it as a development constraint. Tamil Nadu plans to replicate similar district-level climate strategies across all 38 districts.

Monitoring Progress Through the Climate Action Tracker

• A real-time Climate Action Tracker ensures transparency and accountability, based on the principle that “what gets measured, gets done.”
• A dedicated Project Management Unit (PMU) is being set up in each pilot district to support implementation.

Tamil Nadu’s Community-Centred, Nature-Driven Climate Strategy

• Tamil Nadu is advancing climate action through large-scale afforestation, mangrove and wetland restoration, and biodiversity protection.
• With 20 Ramsar sites and 30% of its land under protection, the State is also restoring coastal ecosystems along its 1,068-km shoreline while supporting local livelihoods.
• By expanding decarbonisation efforts to agriculture, livestock and waste, Tamil Nadu is widening the scope of its low-carbon transition.
• Central to this approach is community participation, ensuring climate action is visible, verifiable and locally driven.
• Tamil Nadu’s model demonstrates how national net-zero goals can be strengthened through local innovation and evidence-based governance.

The Tamil Nadu Model of Sub-State Climate Action FAQs

Q1. What makes the Tamil Nadu Green Climate Company (TNGCC) significant?

Ans. TNGCC is one of India’s first dedicated climate agencies, coordinating four missions focused on emissions reduction, ecosystem restoration, coastal protection, and livelihood resilience across the State.

Q2. How has Tamil Nadu progressed toward its net-zero goal?

Ans. Tamil Nadu reduced emission intensity by nearly 60% since 2005, expanded renewable energy to 60% of installed capacity, and developed a detailed Net Zero Pathway.

Q3. What role do district-level climate plans play in Tamil Nadu’s strategy?

Ans. District decarbonisation plans offer shovel-ready projects and real-time tracking, enabling four pilot districts to potentially abate 92% of emissions by 2050.

Q4. What are the major emission sources in the four pilot districts?

Ans. Road transport dominates emissions in Nilgiris and Coimbatore; cement and industrial energy in Virudhunagar; electricity generation and rice cultivation in Ramanathapuram.

Q5. How does Tamil Nadu integrate community participation in climate action?

Ans. By involving local communities in restoration, coastal protection, agriculture and waste transitions, Tamil Nadu ensures climate action remains transparent, participatory and aligned with local needs.

.Source: TH

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