IIED Food Security Index, Key Findings, Implications for India

The International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) has developed a Food Security Index (FSI). The IIED Food Security Index highlights the increasing vulnerability of global food systems in the face of climate change. It shows that rising temperatures are likely to undermine not just food production, but also access, nutrition, and the resilience of food systems.

What is the IIED Food Security Index?

The IIED Food Security Index evaluates food security across 162 countries, measuring the vulnerability of entire food systems under different climate scenarios such as 1.5°C, 2°C, and higher warming levels.

It assesses food security based on four key pillars:

• Availability: Sufficient production and supply of food
• Accessibility: Economic and physical access to food
• Utilisation: Nutritional quality and the body’s ability to absorb nutrients
• Sustainability (Resilience): Capacity of food systems to withstand shocks

This multidimensional approach makes the index more comprehensive than traditional measures focused only on production or consumption.

Key Findings of IIED Food Security Index

The IIED Food Security Index highlights the growing vulnerability of global food systems under climate change, revealing that rising temperatures could significantly undermine food availability, accessibility, nutrition, and resilience particularly in developing countries like India.

• India among the most vulnerable large economies: India’s food security position is already below the global average, with a baseline score of 5.31 compared to 6.74 globally, and is projected to decline further under warming scenarios. This indicates increasing risks in ensuring adequate, affordable, and nutritious food, especially for vulnerable populations.
• Sharp decline in food security under warming scenarios: The index projects that India’s food security score could fall to 4.96 at 1.5°C warming and 4.52 at 2°C, showing that even moderate temperature increases can significantly weaken food systems and access to nutrition.
• Widening global inequality in food security: Climate change is expected to widen the gap between rich and poor countries, with low-income nations in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa experiencing the steepest decline.
• Large global population already food insecure: Currently, about 4.56 billion people (59% of the global population) live in countries with below-average food security. With 2°C warming, an additional 291 million people could fall into this category, intensifying global hunger and malnutrition.
• Climate change affects all four pillars of food security: Rising temperatures and climate shocks impact availability, accessibility, utilisation, and sustainability of food systems. However, sustainability and utilisation are the most climate-sensitive, leading to early impacts on nutrition, health, and resilience.
• Decline in food availability and dietary diversity: Under higher warming scenarios, countries, especially poorer ones will face reduced food production and lower dietary diversity, increasing the risk of malnutrition and hunger.
• Economic growth alone is insufficient: The study finds that while higher income improves food access marginally, it does not ensure resilience. A $1,000 increase in per capita GDP raises food security only slightly (around 0.2 points), with minimal improvement in sustainability, showing limits of growth-led solutions.
• Interconnected global food systems amplify risks: Climate shocks in one major agricultural region can disrupt global supply chains, causing price volatility and shortages worldwide, meaning even developed countries are indirectly vulnerable.
• Increase in countries facing critical food insecurity: The number of countries facing severe food insecurity could nearly triple to 24 under a 2°C warming scenario, indicating a potential rise in humanitarian crises.
• Disproportionate burden on low-income countries: Low-income countries, which contribute only about 1% of global emissions, are projected to see food insecurity rise by around 22%, compared to a much smaller increase in high-income nations, highlighting issues of climate justice.
• Risk of global instability and migration: Severe food insecurity in fragile and conflict-prone regions may lead to state instability, forced migration, and geopolitical tensions, making food security a national and global security concern.

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IIED Food Security Index Implications for India

For India, the findings of the IIED Food Security Index carry serious policy implications, as structural vulnerabilities combined with climate stress could significantly weaken the country’s food security landscape.

• High dependence on monsoon-based agriculture increases vulnerability
• Large population and existing issues of malnutrition and poverty worsen risks
• Climate change may impact food affordability and nutritional outcomes
• Regional disparities could deepen, affecting rural and marginal communities the most

Way Forward

Addressing the growing threat of food insecurity in a warming world requires a comprehensive and resilience-oriented policy approach that integrates social protection, sustainable agriculture, and global cooperation.

• Strengthen social safety nets to protect vulnerable populations
• Promote climate-resilient agriculture (crop diversification, drought-resistant seeds)
• Improve water management and soil conservation
• Invest in sustainable and resilient food systems
• Enhance global cooperation due to interconnected risks