India’s New NDC: How India’s New NDC Boosts Climate Action Targets

India’s New NDC Latest News

• India has approved its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), committing to 60% of installed power capacity from non-fossil sources by 2035, a 47% reduction in emissions intensity from 2005 levels, and expanding its carbon sink to 3.5–4 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. 
• These targets will be submitted to the UNFCCC and come as India’s emissions growth slowed to a two-decade low in 2025.

India’s Previous vs Updated Commitments

• Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit NDCs, but the targets themselves are voluntary commitments outlining how each nation plans to reduce emissions and transition away from fossil fuels.
• Earlier NDC (2022) – India committed to:
  • 50% non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030; 
  • 45% reduction in emissions intensity; 
  • Carbon sink of 2.5–3 billion tonnes CO₂ equivalent.
• Updated NDC (2026) – The new targets increase ambition:
  • 60% non-fossil capacity by 2035 
  • 47% reduction in emissions intensity 
  • Higher carbon sink target
• India has already achieved about 52% non-fossil capacity by early 2026, surpassing earlier targets ahead of schedule. 
• With this update, India also closes a gap, joining other G20 nations in announcing its 2035 climate commitments.

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Have NDCs Driven the Clean Energy Transition

• The impact of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) on accelerating clean energy remains mixed and limited. 
• While they provide a framework for climate action, their effectiveness in driving real change is debated.

Global Performance: Falling Short of Targets

• Reports like the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 show countries have repeatedly missed targets since 2015. 
• Current NDCs close less than 14% of the emissions gap needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.
• Although projected warming has slightly decreased, much of this is due to methodological changes rather than stronger policy action. 
• Setbacks like the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement have further weakened progress.

Weaknesses in NDC Commitments

• Most countries include some clean energy targets, but none present a fully aligned plan with global agreements like the COP28 “UAE Consensus”.
• Gaps in Fossil Fuel Action
  • No country has clear targets to phase down oil and gas production 
  • Most ignore fossil fuel subsidy reforms 
  • Developing countries rely heavily on inadequate international finance

Clean Energy Growth Despite NDC Limitations

• Renewable energy is expanding rapidly, with record solar and wind installations and renewables overtaking coal globally. 
• However, this growth is driven mainly by falling costs and industrial competition, not NDC mandates.
• NDCs have been more effective at tracking and reporting progress rather than driving the deep structural changes needed to move away from fossil fuels, highlighting a gap between commitments and real-world impact.

India’s Emissions Trend: Signs of a Slowdown

• A 2025 analysis by CREA shows India’s CO₂ emissions grew by just 0.7%, the slowest pace in over two decades (excluding Covid), marking a sharp decline from 4–11% growth in previous years.
• Decline in Coal-Based Emissions – Emissions from the power sector fell 3.8%, with coal generation declining for the first time since 1973 (outside the Covid period).
• Rapid Expansion of Clean Energy – India added significant clean capacity in 2025 (47 GW solar; 6.3 GW wind; 4 GW hydro; 0.6 GW nuclear). This was enough to meet demand growth of up to 5%, signalling a structural shift.
• Mixed Sectoral Performance – While the power sector improved, heavy industries lagged behind (Steel emissions rose by 8%; Cement emissions increased by 10%).

Possible Inflection Point Ahead

• The analysis suggests India’s power sector may reach a tipping point by 2026, where clean energy additions match annual demand growth. 
• Long-term projections indicate 70% non-fossil capacity by 2035-36.
• Experts warn that 2025 conditions—mild weather and weak industrial activity—may have temporarily reduced emissions. 
• Sustained trends over the coming years will be needed to confirm a lasting transition.

Challenges in India’s Climate Strategy

• India’s climate targets rely on emissions intensity (emissions per unit of GDP), allowing total emissions to rise as long as economic growth outpaces them. 
• This approach is justified on equity grounds, given India’s low per-capita emissions.
• Continued Fossil Fuel Expansion: Despite clean energy goals, India plans – 100 GW of new coal capacity; $1 trillion in petrochemical investments by 2040; 50% increase in coal-based steel capacity by 2031. These moves could offset gains from renewable energy.
• Stranded Renewable Capacity – Over 37 GW of renewable energy capacity remains underutilised due to inadequate grid infrastructure, limiting the effectiveness of clean energy expansion.
• Forest Cover Gaps – India’s carbon sink targets depend on forest expansion, but current forest and tree cover is about 24%, below the 33% goal. Some of this includes trees outside forests, whose reliability is debated.

Conclusion

• India’s climate progress will depend on resolving contradictions between growth and sustainability, improving grid readiness, and strengthening genuine carbon sinks alongside renewable expansion.

Source: TH | PIB