Kishtwar Flash Floods: Climate Change and Extreme Weather in Jammu & Kashmir

Kishtwar Flash Floods Latest News

• At least 65 people died and over 50 remain missing after a flash flood triggered by torrential rain hit Chasoti village in Kishtwar, Jammu & Kashmir. The disaster struck near the route to the Machail Mata temple.
• While scientists caution against linking any single extreme event directly to climate change, they note that rising global temperatures and shifting weather patterns have made such incidents — including flash floods and wildfires — more frequent and severe.
• In Jammu & Kashmir, as elsewhere in India, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events driven by climate change has already caused the deaths of thousands in recent years.

Extreme Weather Events in Jammu & Kashmir (2010–2022)

• Between 2010 and 2022, Jammu & Kashmir experienced 2,863 extreme weather events that claimed 552 lives, according to a 2024 study published in Mausam by IMD scientists.
• The most frequent occurrences were thunderstorms (1,942 incidents) and heavy rain (409 incidents), while flash floods (168 incidents) and landslides (186 incidents) also posed significant threats. 
• Although heavy snow was less frequent (42 incidents), it caused the highest fatalities — 182 deaths — making it the deadliest weather phenomenon during this period.
• The study also highlighted that Kishtwar, Anantnag, Ganderbal, and Doda districts recorded the highest number of deaths from flash floods.
• Overall, the research concluded that while heavy rain and heavy snow remain the primary weather-related killers, other hazards such as flash floods, thunderstorms, and windstorms are increasingly emerging as major threats in Jammu & Kashmir.

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Key Drivers of Extreme Weather Events in J&K

• Although several factors contribute to the occurrence of extreme weather events in J&K, the three significant drivers behind these events are rising temperatures, the changing pattern of Western Disturbances, and the region’s topography.

Rising Temperatures and Their Impact on J&K

• The western Himalayas, where Jammu & Kashmir lies, have warmed at twice the rate of the Indian subcontinent since 2000. 
• This sharp rise in temperature has intensified both mean and extreme precipitation. 
• A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture — about 7% extra water vapour for every 1°C rise — resulting in heavier and more frequent rainfall events that often trigger severe flooding.
• Higher temperatures have also accelerated glacial shrinkage, increasing the number of unstable glacial lakes. 
  • These lakes, being relatively young, have fragile edges prone to erosion, melting, and sudden breaches. 
  • When heavy rainfall occurs, they overflow, releasing slush and sediment that cause catastrophic downstream floods.
• As per climate experts, these unstable lakes make the region particularly vulnerable. 
• Intense rain not only swells rivers but also destabilises glacial lakes, compounding the risk of flash floods and large-scale destruction.

Changing Nature of Western Disturbances

• Western Disturbances (WDs) are east-moving rain-bearing wind systems that originate beyond Afghanistan and Iran, gathering moisture from the Mediterranean, Black, Caspian, and Arabian Seas. 
• Traditionally active in winter months (December–March), they are now increasingly affecting weather outside the winter season.
• This increases the risk of floods and heavy rainfall in India’s Himalayan states, including Jammu & Kashmir.
• Climate change has altered their behaviour. The rapid warming of the Arabian Sea releases more moisture into these systems. 
• When WDs extend into the North Arabian Sea, they absorb this excess moisture, intensifying rainfall over the hills.
• This shift means that global warming is strengthening and prolonging the influence of WDs, making extreme rainfall and flash floods more frequent in the region.

Topography and Vulnerability of J&K

• Jammu & Kashmir’s hilly and mountainous terrain amplifies its exposure to extreme weather events. 
• The Himalayas consist of diverse ranges that significantly influence local weather systems.
• One of the key processes is orographic rainfall. 
  • As moist air is forced to ascend over the mountains, it cools and condenses, resulting in heavy precipitation. 
  • This process makes the region more prone to sudden and intense rain, often triggering flash floods, landslides, and cloudbursts.
• The unique Himalayan topography acts as a natural trigger for extreme events, meaning that climate change impacts — like warming temperatures and shifting Western Disturbances — are magnified by the terrain.

Source: IE | ToI | KV