Missed Demographic Dividend in South Asia: Youth Unemployment, Protests, and India’s Future Potential

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• In recent years, youth-led uprisings have erupted across Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nepal, where economic growth has failed to translate into better opportunities for the young. Instead, corruption and elite prosperity dominate. 
• Nepal’s protests have spotlighted “nepo kids” flaunting luxury lifestyles, fuelling Gen Z anger over inequality. 
• Transparency International’s 2024 corruption rankings placed Nepal at 107, Bangladesh 151, Sri Lanka 121, and Indonesia 99, underscoring widespread governance challenges.

Youth Uprisings and the Missed Demographic Dividend in Asia

• In recent years, youth-led uprisings have shaken Sri Lanka (2022), Bangladesh (2024), Indonesia (2025), and Nepal, driven by frustration over economic growth that has failed to create better opportunities for young people. 
• Despite headline growth, the benefits have largely bypassed the labour force entrants, while ruling elites and business classes prospered.

Corruption and Optics of Power

• Nepal’s Gen Z protests spotlighted the luxurious lifestyles of political elites’ children, with “nepo kids” trending on social media. 
• Transparency International’s 2024 rankings reflect deep-rooted corruption: Nepal (107), Bangladesh (151), Sri Lanka (121), and Indonesia (99). 
• Leaders’ actions worsened optics — for instance, Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto dismissed respected finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati amid backlash over lawmakers’ extravagant $3,000 housing allowance, nearly 10 times Jakarta’s minimum wage.

Economic Growth Without Inclusion

• Although these nations witnessed economic expansion, high corruption and weak political continuity prevented inclusive growth. 
• The youth remain the worst affected, struggling with unemployment and limited opportunities.

A Young Demographic at Risk

• With median ages of Nepal (25), Bangladesh (25.7), Indonesia (30.1), and Sri Lanka (33.1), these countries are among the youngest globally. 
• Yet, instead of reaping a demographic dividend, they face unrest as disillusioned youth demand accountability and equitable growth.

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The Vanishing Demographic Dividend in Asia

• The demographic dividend arises when a country’s working-age population grows faster than dependents, boosting economic potential. 
• However, many Asian economies have failed to harness this advantage. Despite strong growth, millions of new jobs have not materialised, leaving young people underemployed. 
• Automation has sharply reduced opportunities in traditional sectors such as textiles and auto manufacturing, once the backbone of youth employment. 
  • The Asian Development Bank notes that today’s car factories employ only 15% of the workforce needed 25 years ago. 
• The World Bank warned in 2023 that South Asia may waste its demographic dividend, as it created only 10 million jobs a year from 2000 to 2023 — just half of what was needed. 
• This shortfall underscores the urgent need for inclusive job creation to ensure the region’s youth can drive growth rather than unrest.

High Youth Unemployment in South Asia

• Indonesia’s Youth Struggles – In 2024, Indonesia’s unemployment rate was 4.91%, but for ages 20–24 it spiked to 15.34%, showing youth face joblessness at over three times the national average.
• Bangladesh’s Jobless Youth – Bangladesh recorded 3.35% overall unemployment in 2023. However, youth aged 15–24 had the highest rate at 8.24%, underscoring the lack of opportunities for the young workforce.
• Nepal’s Employment Crisis – Nepal’s unemployment rose from 11.4% in 2017–18 to 12.6% in 2022–23, with underemployment widespread among youth. Limited industrial growth and reliance on remittances highlight weak domestic job creation.
  • Young Nepalis seek jobs abroad, making remittances nearly a quarter of GDP. Without urgent investment in emerging sectors, Nepal risks losing its demographic dividend.

India’s Demographic Dividend in the Making

• India has shifted from a high fertility-high mortality society to a low fertility-low mortality one, reshaping its age profile and creating the potential for a demographic dividend.

Changing Age Profile

• According to the 2011 Census, 48% of Indians were in the working-age group (15–59 years), 31% were children under 14, and 9% were elderly above 60. 
• The dependency ratio fell from 64% in 2001 to 55% in 2011, indicating fewer dependents per worker. 
• India’s median age is just 28, making it one of the youngest nations globally.

Peak Demographic Dividend

• The Economic Survey 2018–19 estimates that India’s demographic dividend will peak around 2041, when the working-age population (20–59 years) is expected to reach nearly 59%. 
• The UN Population Fund notes India’s demographic window spans five decades (2005–2055), longer than any other country.
• Unlike China, which saw its demographic dividend peak around 2010, India’s more gradual transition ensures opportunities until 2055, giving it an unparalleled advantage globally.

Source: IE | TH