India’s ‘RCEP Minus China’ Strategy – Securing Market Access without Strategic Vulnerability

RCEP Minus China

RCEP Minus China Latest News

  • More than six years after opting out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2019, India has effectively secured most of the economic benefits of the grouping without formally joining it. 
  • The recent conclusion of the India–New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) marks a significant milestone—India now has FTAs with all RCEP members except China. 
  • This reflects a calibrated trade strategy balancing market access, strategic autonomy, and economic security.

What is RCEP

  • RCEP is the world’s largest trading bloc, comprising -
    • 10 ASEAN countries (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam)
    • Plus Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand
  • It covers nearly 30% of global GDP and population, and aims at tariff liberalisation, supply chain integration, and trade facilitation.

Why India Opted Out of RCEP (2019)

  • Key reasons:
    • China factor: Fear of near duty-free access for Chinese goods flooding Indian markets.
    • Manufacturing asymmetry: China’s superior manufacturing competitiveness.
    • Trade deficits: Concerns over widening deficits, especially with ASEAN and China.
    • Inadequate safeguards:
      • Weak protection for sensitive sectors (agriculture, MSMEs, manufacturing)
      • Limited flexibility in tariff liberalisation timelines
  • Official stand: The Indian PM stated that RCEP in its existing form did not reflect agreed guiding principles, and failed to address India’s “outstanding issues and concerns”.

The ‘RCEP Minus China’ Strategy

  • Core idea: Bilateral FTAs with 14 of 15 RCEP members, exclude China from a full-fledged FTA, and retain tariff sovereignty and policy space.
  • Expert view: 
    • Described as “smart risk management”, delivers market access without systemic vulnerability.
    • Superior to both joining RCEP, and signing a direct FTA with China.

India-China Trade Framework

  • APTA: India and China are part of the Asia Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA), which is a preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) with limited tariff concessions on select items.
  • Significance: Prevents blanket tariff elimination, limits exposure to Chinese imports.

Why RCEP Would Have Been Riskier

  • Integrated structure of RCEP diluted country-specific safeguards, and limited control over rules of origin.
  • Indirect entry of Chinese goods via ASEAN and other RCEP members.
  • No phased liberalisation tailored to India’s sensitivities.

India’s FTAs with RCEP Members

  • Pre-2014 agreements:
    • ASEAN–India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) – 2010
    • India–South Korea Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) – 2010
    • India–Japan CEPA – 2011
    • Issue: AITIGA led to a sharp rise in India’s trade deficit with ASEAN.
    • Status: Renegotiation underway, limited progress so far.
  • Post-2014 developments:
    • India–Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) – 2022 – Early-harvest deal, and ongoing talks to expand scope.
    • India–New Zealand FTA – Negotiations concluded December 2025.

Key Highlights of India-New Zealand FTA

  • Zero-duty market access for Indian exports.
  • Investment commitment of $20 billion.
  • Strengthens India’s presence in the Pacific and Indo-Pacific trade architecture.
  • Completes India’s bilateral coverage of RCEP (except China).

Challenges and Way Ahead

  • Persistent trade deficits with ASEAN countries: Slow renegotiation of legacy FTAs like AITIGA. Rebalance existing FTAs - Stronger safeguards, reciprocity-based market access.
  • Domestic competitiveness: MSMEs and manufacturing still need productivity enhancement. Strengthen domestic manufacturing - Align with Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat.
  • Geopolitical pressure: Strategic plurilateralism - engage selectively without compromising autonomy. 
  • Global supply chain realignments: Supply chain resilience - Leverage FTAs for diversification away from China-centric chains.

Conclusion

  • India’s post-RCEP trajectory demonstrates a mature and pragmatic trade strategy. 
  • By pursuing an ‘RCEP minus China’ approach, India has preserved tariff and policy autonomy. 
  • The India–New Zealand FTA completes this strategic arc, reinforcing India’s position as a selective, interest-driven participant in global trade, rather than a passive signatory to mega trade blocs. 
  • This approach aligns well with India’s long-term goals of economic resilience, strategic autonomy, and sustainable integration into global value chains.

Source: TH

RCEP Minus China FAQs

Q1: Why did India decide to opt out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2019?

Ans: Mainly due to concerns over duty-free Chinese imports, widening trade deficits, inadequate safeguards for sensitive sectors, etc.

Q2: What is the concept of India’s ‘RCEP minus China’ strategy?

Ans: It refers to India securing bilateral FTAs with 14 of the 15 RCEP members while excluding China.

Q3: How does the APTA differ from a FTA in the India–China context?

Ans: APTA provides limited tariff concessions on select goods, unlike an FTA which entails near-zero tariffs on most items.

Q4: Why is the India–New Zealand FTA considered strategically significant for India?

Ans: The FTA completes India’s trade coverage of RCEP members excluding China, offers zero-duty market access and investment inflows.

Q5: Why joining RCEP could have posed greater risks for India than a bilateral FTA with China?

Ans: RCEP’s integrated framework would have diluted safeguards and enabled indirect entry of Chinese goods via third countries.

Reading the Economy: What India’s Economic Signals Show in 2025

India Economic Signals 2025

India Economic Signals 2025 Latest News

  • The Indian economy in 2025 has faced a mixed and uncertain phase. 
  • Even as the government rolled out policy measures supportive of growth, their impact has been partly offset by domestic challenges and adverse global conditions, making the economic recovery uneven and fragile.

What Went Right for the Indian Economy in 2025

  • The year began on a positive note for the Indian economy with a series of growth-supporting policy moves.
  • In February, PM Modi and US President Trump announced plans to work towards a India–U.S. Bilateral Trade Agreement by the fall of 2025, raising expectations of improved trade and investment flows.
  • The same month, Union Finance Minister presented Budget 2025, which reduced income tax rates and slabs, easing the tax burden for most taxpayers. The move was widely seen as a boost to disposable incomes and consumer demand.
  • In September, the GST Council simplified the indirect tax structure by scrapping the 12% and 28% GST slabs and shifting most items to lower slabs—from 12% to 5%, and from 28% to 18%—helping reduce prices and improve consumption sentiment.
  • Further, in November, the Centre announced the implementation of the four Labour Codes, expanding social security coverage to contract and gig workers and ensuring benefits such as higher minimum wages, strengthening worker welfare and formalisation.
  • Overall, these measures signalled a policy push towards demand revival, tax rationalisation, and labour protection in 2025.

Trade Agreements That Strengthened India’s Economic Outreach in 2025

  • 2025 marked a strong year for India’s trade diplomacy, with several major agreements concluded, implemented, or pushed close to completion.
  • India–UK Trade Deal: The United Kingdom–India Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, signed in July 2025, grants India duty-free access to most UK markets and improves mobility provisions for Indian professionals and workers.
  • India–EFTA Agreement Comes into Force: The Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) with the European Free Trade Association—covering Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein—entered into force on October 1, 2025. 
    • Beyond trade concessions, EFTA countries committed $100 billion in investments over 15 years, a target officials believe may be met earlier.
  • India–Oman CEPA: In December, India signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with Oman, further expanding India’s footprint in West Asia.
  • India–New Zealand FTA: India and New Zealand concluded negotiations on a free trade agreement, under which 100% of Indian exports will receive duty-free access, alongside a $20 billion investment commitment over 15 years from New Zealand.
  • India–EU Talks Near Finish Line: According to Piyush Goyal, negotiations with the European Union are in their final stages, though it remains uncertain whether a deal will be concluded before the end of 2025.
  • Overall, 2025 underscored India’s push to diversify trade partners, secure market access, and attract long-term investment through ambitious trade agreements.

U.S. Trade Tensions Undermined India’s Economic Momentum in 2025

  • The biggest setback for India’s economy in 2025 came from trade frictions with the United States.

Tariff Shock After Early Optimism

  • After a positive start in February, when India and the U.S. announced plans for a bilateral trade agreement, President Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs in April. 
  • India initially faced a 26% tariff, later paused for 90 days to allow negotiations.

Breakdown of Trade Talks

  • Negotiations stalled over key issues, especially U.S. demands for market access in India for agricultural and dairy products. 
  • As no agreement was reached, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on India on July 31, followed by an additional 25% penalty tariff a week later for India’s imports of Russian oil, taking the total to 50%.

Impact on Indian Exports

  • The steep tariffs severely hurt labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, apparel, leather, and engineering goods, where the U.S. is a major export destination.
  • While New Delhi announced an Export Promotion Mission to provide cheaper credit and help exporters tackle non-tariff barriers, details of the support measures have not yet been released.

Outlook for the Indian Economy: Cautious Growth with Data Reforms Ahead

  • The year ahead is expected to be a mixed phase for India’s economy.
  • On the downside, the Reserve Bank of India has projected 7.3% GDP growth for 2025–26, implying a notable slowdown in the second half of the year after strong growth averaging 8% in the first half. 
  • In addition, global trade tensions and tariff-related uncertainties are likely to persist for several more months, weighing on exports and external demand.
  • On the positive side, India is set for a long-awaited upgrade of key macroeconomic indicators
  • The base years and methodologies for GDP, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be revised. 
  • These updates are expected to provide more accurate, contemporary, and reliable measurements of economic activity, inflation, and industrial performance.

Source: TH

India Economic Signals 2025 FAQs

Q1: What is the overall economic outlook for India in 2025?

Ans: India’s economy in 2025 shows uneven recovery, with supportive domestic reforms offset by global trade disruptions, especially US tariffs, resulting in cautious but resilient growth prospects.

Q2: Which government policies supported economic growth in 2025?

Ans: Key growth-supporting measures included income tax cuts in Budget 2025, GST slab rationalisation, implementation of four Labour Codes, and efforts to boost domestic demand and worker welfare.

Q3: What trade agreements strengthened India’s global economic position in 2025?

Ans: India concluded or advanced major trade deals with the UK, EFTA, Oman, and New Zealand, securing duty-free access, labour mobility, and long-term investment commitments worth billions.

Q4: How did US trade actions affect India’s economy in 2025?

Ans: US reciprocal tariffs, rising to 50%, severely impacted India’s labour-intensive exports like textiles and leather, disrupting trade talks and weakening export-driven growth momentum.

Q5: What are the key economic signals to watch going forward?

Ans: Key signals include RBI’s 7.3% growth projection, continued tariff uncertainty, and upcoming revisions to GDP, IIP, and CPI base years for better economic measurement.

Great Indian Bustard Conservation: Why Supreme Court Ordered Safeguards Against Power Lines

Great Indian Bustard

Great Indian Bustard Latest News

  • Recently, the Supreme Court of India delivered a landmark judgment to strengthen conservation of the Great Indian Bustard, focusing on preventing bird deaths caused by collisions with overhead power lines linked to renewable energy projects.
  • Acting on recommendations from an expert committee, the Court demarcated priority conservation areas for the critically endangered species and laid down a mechanism to reroute or manage overhead power lines in these zones.

Background: What the Supreme Court Was Examining

  • A retired bureaucrat and environmentalist approached the Supreme Court of India seeking urgent protection for the Great Indian Bustard (GIB).
  • The petition flagged rising fatal collisions with renewable energy transmission lines in Rajasthan and Gujarat.
  • Poor frontal vision and heavy body make GIBs highly vulnerable to overhead wires.

Key Supreme Court Directions (2021–2024)

  • 2021 order - Ban on new overhead power lines across ~99,000 sq km of GIB habitat; Assessment of undergrounding high-voltage lines; Mandatory bird diverters
  • March 2024 modification - Withdrawal of blanket ban on overhead lines; Following concerns raised by the Ministry of Power, MNRE, and MoEFCC over feasibility and sector-wide impact.

Balancing Conservation and Clean Energy

  • Court acknowledged the need to balance:
    • Climate commitments and renewable energy expansion, and
    • Protection of a critically endangered species
    • Held that undergrounding alone is insufficient for conservation.
  • It constituted an expert committee of wildlife and power-sector specialists.

Basis of the Final Judgment

  • Expert committee recommendations guided the Court’s latest ruling.
  • The judgment introduced targeted safeguards for the GIB while accommodating India’s renewable energy goals.

Measures Ordered by the Supreme Court

  • Acting on recommendations from an expert committee, the Supreme Court of India approved a package of measures across three pillars:
    • redrawing conservation zones;
    • voltage-based mitigation for power lines (rerouting or undergrounding); 
    • creation of dedicated powerline corridors to reduce collision risk.

Revised Priority Conservation Areas

  • Rajasthan: Priority areas expanded from 13,163 sq km to 14,013 sq km.
  • Gujarat: Priority areas increased from 500 sq km to 740 sq km.
  • These zones represent core habitats and breeding areas identified by the Rajasthan Forest Department and the Wildlife Institute of India (WII).
  • Contestation: Petitioners opposed the exclusion of 657 sq km (eastern Rasla–Degray Oran), arguing it is a vital wintering and stopover corridor between Pokhran and Desert National Park.
  • Critical sites prioritised include: Desert National Park; Salkha–Kuchri; Sanu–Mokla–Parewar; Pokhran Field Firing Range (PFFR) and its buffer/eastern periphery; Dholiya; Khetolai; and Chacha.

Dedicated Powerline Corridors

  • Rajasthan: New powerline corridors up to 5 km wide, placed ≥5 km south of Desert National Park, to carry rerouted overhead lines.
  • Gujarat: Dedicated corridors of 1–2 km width to evacuate power from wind/solar projects in coastal Kutch.
  • Route optimisation mandate: Where multiple green-energy pooling stations terminate at a common grid station, authorities must converge routes into a common stretch wherever feasible.

Project Restrictions in Priority Areas

  • No new overhead power lines within revised priority areas except via designated corridors (lines ≤11 kV exempt).
  • No new wind turbines in priority areas.
  • No new solar parks/plants >2 MW, and no expansion of existing solar parks, within priority areas.

Voltage-Based Mitigation (Undergrounding & Timelines)

  • Rajasthan:
    • Immediate undergrounding of 80 km of 33 kV lines (of 104 km identified earlier).
    • All burying/rerouting to start immediately and finish before 2028.
  • Gujarat:
    • Immediate undergrounding of 79.2 km of 33 kV lines in priority areas.
    • 64.9 km of 66 kV lines earmarked for immediate undergrounding.
    • WII-identified 250 km of critical lines to be buried within 2 years.

Bird Flight Diverters: Evidence-Based Pause

  • The Court did not issue blanket directions on installing bird flight diverters.
  • Instead, it directed the committee to assess their effectiveness in reducing collision mortality and submit findings to the Centre.

Conservation Measures Directed by the Supreme Court

  • The apex court endorsed a mix of general and State-specific measures to strengthen conservation of the Great Indian Bustard (GIB), alongside the ongoing Project GIB. 

Measures for Rajasthan

  • Grassland Restoration and Consolidation - Priority on restoration, conservation, and consolidation of grassland ecosystems, the GIB’s primary habitat.
  • In-situ Habitat Management
    • To support survival in the wild, the Court directed:
    • Enclosure improvements to secure breeding and foraging areas
    • Predator management, including control of free-ranging dogs and reptiles that prey on eggs
    • Food and water management to stabilise resources
    • Community engagement to reduce human-wildlife conflict and support local stewardship

Measures for Gujarat

  • ‘Jump-Start’ Breeding in the Wild
    • Adoption of a ‘jump-start’ method: transferring fertile eggs from Rajasthan to Gujarat.
    • Technique involves swapping an infertile egg with a fertile one, enabling the female to incubate and raise the chick in natural conditions.
  • Technology-Enabled Monitoring
    • GPS tagging of birds to track movements and support the jump-start breeding process and post-release monitoring.

Source: IE

Great Indian Bustard FAQs

Q1: Why did the Supreme Court intervene in Great Indian Bustard conservation?

Ans: The Supreme Court intervened due to rising deaths of the critically endangered Great Indian Bustard from collisions with overhead power lines linked to renewable energy projects.

Q2: What threat do power lines pose to the Great Indian Bustard?

Ans: The Great Indian Bustard has poor frontal vision and a heavy body, making it unable to detect overhead transmission lines, leading to frequent fatal collisions.

Q3: What key measures did the Supreme Court order for GIB protection?

Ans: The Court ordered revised priority conservation areas, undergrounding or rerouting of power lines, creation of powerline corridors, and restrictions on new energy projects.

Q4: How did the Court balance conservation with renewable energy goals?

Ans: The Court acknowledged climate commitments but held that conservation cannot be compromised, adopting expert-driven, targeted safeguards instead of a blanket ban on power lines.

Q5: What conservation actions were directed beyond power line mitigation?

Ans: The Court directed grassland restoration, predator control, community engagement, in-situ habitat management, jump-start breeding in Gujarat, and GPS tagging of birds.

Health for All in India: Funding Gaps and Systemic Challenges

Health for All

Health for All Latest News

  • India’s progress towards the “Health for All” goal has come under scrutiny amid funding constraints, rising disease burdens, antimicrobial resistance and recent pharmaceutical quality failures. 

India’s Health Landscape: The Emerging Context

  • With a population of nearly 146 crore, India’s public health system faces complex and overlapping challenges. 
  • The disease profile has shifted significantly over the last decade, marked by a sharp rise in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes, cardiovascular disorders and cancers, alongside the continued presence of infectious diseases like tuberculosis and emerging viral outbreaks. 
  • Climate change has further intensified health risks through heat stress, air pollution and extreme weather events, increasing morbidity and healthcare demand.
  • At the same time, India’s expanding pharmaceutical industry and growing role as a global medicine supplier have raised concerns over drug quality regulation, underscoring the need for stronger governance frameworks to protect public health.

Public Health Financing and Budgetary Constraints

  • One of the most persistent bottlenecks in achieving Health for All is under-investment in healthcare. 
  • India’s public health expenditure has consistently remained below 2% of GDP, despite the National Health Policy setting a target of 2.5% of GDP. 
  • For 2025-26, the Union health allocation stood at Rs. 99,859 crore, representing an increase over the previous year but still insufficient to meet population-level needs.
  • The funding stress has been exacerbated by external factors, including the withdrawal of certain international funding streams that previously supported programmes in HIV/AIDS, maternal health and population services. 
  • As a result, both Union and State governments have had to absorb additional fiscal pressure, often leading to uneven capacity across regions.

Infrastructure Gaps and Environmental Health Concerns

  • Although post-pandemic investments improved diagnostic capacity and hospital bed availability, infrastructure gaps persist, particularly in rural and peri-urban areas. 
  • The demand–supply mismatch is further worsened by severe air pollution, especially in northern India during the winter months. 
  • Poor air quality has reduced life expectancy, increased respiratory illnesses, and disproportionately affected children, elderly citizens and those with pre-existing conditions.
  • Without sustained environmental health interventions and long-term urban air quality management, these health stressors risk overwhelming already stretched public health systems.

Tuberculosis Control and Antimicrobial Resistance

  • India’s decision to advance its tuberculosis elimination target to 2025 has not yielded the desired outcomes. 
  • While diagnostic capacity has improved through indigenous molecular tools such as TrueNat, challenges persist due to inconsistent detection rates and the growing burden of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant TB.
  • A related and more systemic threat is antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Global surveillance data indicate that resistance levels in India are significantly higher than global averages, particularly for serious bacterial infections treated in hospital settings. 
  • Factors such as over-the-counter antibiotic access, self-medication, incomplete treatment courses, pharmaceutical waste contamination and weak regulatory enforcement continue to fuel AMR. 
  • Although policy frameworks exist, effective implementation remains uneven across States.

Pharmaceutical Quality and Regulatory Oversight

  • Recent incidents involving contaminated medicines have exposed serious regulatory lapses within India’s pharmaceutical quality control ecosystem. 
  • The deaths of children due to toxic cough syrup consumption in Madhya Pradesh highlighted failures in manufacturing oversight, testing and enforcement. 
  • Such episodes not only undermine domestic health outcomes but also weaken India’s credibility as a global supplier of affordable medicines.
  • Ensuring rigorous quality standards, strengthening drug regulators and enforcing accountability are essential for safeguarding public trust and advancing India’s ambition of being the “pharmacy of the world”.

Source: TH

Health for All FAQs

Q1: What is meant by Health for All in India?

Ans: It refers to ensuring equitable access to affordable, quality healthcare services for the entire population.

Q2: Why is healthcare funding a major concern in India?

Ans: Public health spending remains below 2% of GDP, limiting infrastructure, workforce and service delivery capacity.

Q3: Why has India struggled to eliminate tuberculosis by 2025?

Ans: Drug-resistant TB, uneven detection and treatment gaps have slowed progress despite diagnostic improvements.

Q4: What makes antimicrobial resistance a serious public health threat?

Ans: High antibiotic misuse and weak regulation have led to rising drug-resistant infections, especially in hospitals.

Q5: Why is pharmaceutical quality regulation critical for India?

Ans: Quality failures harm patients domestically and threaten India’s global reputation as a reliable medicine supplier.

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