India's Cotton Crisis - From Self-Sufficiency to Import Dependence

Context:

• India, once a leading producer and exporter of cotton, is now facing a severe decline in production and has become a net importer of the natural fibre.
• The crisis is largely due to policy paralysis and restrictions on genetically modified (GM) crops rather than external factors.

The Rise of India's Cotton Production:

• Technological advancements: India became a major cotton producer due to hybrid technology and later, genetically modified (GM) Bt cotton.
• GM cotton revolution:
  • 1970: H-4, the world’s first cotton hybrid, developed by C.T. Patel.
  • 1972: Varalaxmi, the first interspecific cotton hybrid, developed by B.H. Katarki.
  • 2002-03: Introduction of GM Bt cotton, which offered resistance against the American bollworm.
  • 2006: Bollgard-II technology introduced, providing additional protection against pests.
  • 2013-14: 95% of India's cotton cultivation adopted Bt cotton, pushing yield to a peak of 566 kg per hectare.

The Decline in Cotton Production:

• Production trends:
  • 2002-03 to 2013-14: Production surged from 13.6 million bales (mb, 1 bale=170 kg) to 39.8 mb. The imports halved to 1.1 mb and exports surged well over hundredfold to 11.6 mb (from not even 0.1 mb in 2002-03).
  • 2024-25: Projected at 29.5 mb, the lowest since 2008-09.
  • Imports surpassing exports: 3 mb imports vs. 1.7 mb exports.
• Reasons for decline:
  • Policy restrictions on GM technology and regulatory hurdles. For example, the treatment of GM crops as “hazardous substances” under the Environment Protection Act, 1986.
  • Resistance to scientific advancements in agriculture.
  • Pink bollworm infestation due to lack of new pest-resistant varieties.

Regulatory and Policy Failures:

• Ban on GM crops:
  • 2010: Moratorium on GM Bt brinjal, setting a precedent for halting GM crop approvals.
  • Field trials of new GM cotton hybrids blocked under the NDA government.
  • Regulatory deadlock despite scientific validation and biosafety data.
• Judicial and activist interventions:
  • Activist-driven opposition led to stagnation in agricultural biotech research.
  • Courts stepping into technical domains have further slowed progress.

Economic Implications:

• Impact on trade:
  • A country that was the world’s no. 1 producer in 2015-16 and a close second biggest exporter to the US by 2011-12 has today been “inundated” by American, Australian, Egyptian and Brazilian cotton.
  • Cotton imports doubled in value in 2024-25 compared to the previous year (from $518.4 million to $1,040.4 million) alongside a dip in exports (from $729.4 million to $660.5 million).
  • Pressure from the US and Brazil to remove the 11% import duty on cotton.
• Impact on farmers:
  • Indian farmers are denied access to the latest GM technologies.
  • Despite resistance to GM crops, GM soyameal and corn are being imported.

Need for Policy Reforms:

• Scientific approach over activism: Policy decisions should be based on scientific validation rather than public consultations dominated by activists.
• Revival of GM research: Approval of new pest-resistant GM cotton varieties. Establishment of a transparent and evidence-based regulatory framework.
• Reducing import dependence: Encouraging domestic production through technology adoption. Balancing environmental concerns with the need for agricultural progress.

Conclusion:

• In 1853, Karl Marx famously wrote how British rule “broke up the Indian handloom and destroyed the spinning wheel”, and finally “inundated the very mother country of cotton with cottons”.
• Something similar has taken place with Indian cotton over the last decade. However, it was not by any grand imperialist design, but by sheer domestic policy paralysis and ineptitude.
• India’s cotton crisis underscores the urgent need for a balanced, science-driven approach to agricultural policy.
• The failure to act decisively has not only hurt farmers but also made India reliant on foreign cotton, benefiting global competitors like the US and Brazil.

Q1. Analyze the role of technology in the rise of India’s cotton production.

Ans. The introduction of hybrid varieties like H-4 and Varalaxmi, followed by genetically modified Bt cotton in 2002-03, significantly increased yields, making India a leading cotton producer and exporter.

Q2. What are the key reasons for the decline in India’s cotton production despite past technological advancements?

Ans. The decline is primarily due to regulatory restrictions on new GM crop approvals, pink bollworm infestations, and the lack of policy support for scientific advancements in agriculture.

Q3. How has India's cotton trade balance shifted in recent years, and what are its economic implications?

Ans. India has transitioned from being a net exporter to a net importer of cotton, leading to increased import bills and benefiting global exporters like the US and Brazil.

Q4. Discuss the impact of regulatory and judicial interventions on GM crop research in India.

Ans. Judicial and activist interventions have led to policy paralysis, blocking field trials and commercialization of new GM cotton varieties despite scientific approvals.

Q5. Suggest policy measures to revive India’s cotton production and reduce dependence on imports.

Ans. Policy measures should include lifting restrictions on GM crop approvals, promoting scientific decision-making over activism, investing in pest-resistant cotton research, etc. 

Source:IE