India, China at 75 — A Time for Strategy, Not Sentiment

Context

• As India and China commemorate 75 years of diplomatic relations, the occasion marks more than a ceremonial milestone; it represents a pivotal inflection point in both Asian and global geopolitics.
• The bilateral relationship, once nurtured by idealistic visions of pan-Asian solidarity, has evolved into a strategic balancing act shaped by contested borders, economic interdependence, and geopolitical rivalry.
• Yet, despite the deep mistrust, the India-China equation remains layered with opportunities for cooperation, demanding a nuanced and forward-looking policy framework.

Indian Foreign Policy Challenges with Respect to China

• The China Lens: A Structural Challenge
  • China has emerged as the most consequential external factor shaping Indian foreign policy.
  • Nearly every strategic decision, ranging from border security to trade diversification, is influenced by what is termed the China lens.
  • This relationship is defined by a duality: the need to deter aggression while preserving diplomatic channels; safeguarding sovereignty while acknowledging economic entanglements; and navigating competition while maintaining coexistence.
  • The legacy of the 1962 war, compounded by the deadly 2020 Galwan Valley clash, has left deep scars and recalibrated India’s China policy.
  • Today, the Line of Actual Control (LAC) remains tense and heavily militarised, with more than 60,000 troops stationed in Eastern Ladakh.
  • Infrastructure buildup on both sides reflects a long-term military posture, underscoring that engagement cannot obscure the reality of persistent strategic divergence.
• Economic Paradox: Deterrence Meets Dependence
  • Even amid geopolitical strain, economic interdependence continues.
  • China remains one of India’s largest trading partners, with a trade imbalance nearing $100 billion in 2024–25.
  • While India has implemented measures such as banning Chinese apps and curtailing certain investments, it remains reliant on Chinese components, particularly in critical sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics.
  • This paradox, military deterrence coupled with marketplace dependence—renders full economic decoupling unrealistic in the short term.
  • Consequently, India’s evolving strategy is best described as one of “competitive coexistence.”
  • India competes with China in regional infrastructure, defence, and influence, while maintaining diplomatic engagements through platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
  • Simultaneously, India collaborates with democracies in the Quad to uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific.
  • The challenge lies in maintaining strategic agency while managing adversarial flashpoints.

Regional Influence, the Battle of Narratives, and the US Factor

• Regional Influence and the Battle of Narratives
  • Nowhere is the India-China competition more evident than in South Asia.
  • China’s expanding influence, manifested in projects like the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, the Pokhara Airport in Nepal, and infrastructure investments in the Maldives, has challenged India’s traditional dominance.
  • In response, India has ramped up development aid, defence partnerships, and crisis response mechanisms.
  • However, reactive diplomacy must now give way to proactive, long-term strategies aimed at winning hearts and establishing lasting regional leadership.
  • Diplomatic nuances, such as recent remarks by Bangladesh’s interim leader about India’s northeast being landlocked, underscore the power of narratives.
  • Though geographically accurate, such statements, especially made in Beijing, reinforce China’s strategic framing.
  • India must close infrastructure gaps and shape regional discourse through trust-building and connectivity.
• The U.S. Factor and Strategic Autonomy
  • Complicating India’s China calculus is the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency.
  • His renewed unilateralism and intensified U.S.-China rivalry may pressure India to align more closely with Washington, particularly in defence and Indo-Pacific matters.
  • However, India must balance this partnership with the principle of strategic autonomy.
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remarks on the Lex Fridman podcast in March 2025 highlighted a recalibrated narrative.
  • By referencing historical India-China synergy and advocating for healthy competition, Modi conveyed multiple signals: openness to dialogue with China, independence from U.S. pressure, and assurance of stability to domestic audiences.

A Tentative Thaw: Symbolism and Substantive Signals

• China’s positive response to Modi’s overtures, resuming verification patrols along the LAC, reopening dialogues on hydrological data-sharing, and restarting discussions on religious tourism, indicates a cautious willingness for rapprochement.
• These symbolic gestures may not resolve underlying tensions, but they suggest a mutual interest in de-escalation, or what might be termed a thaw without illusions.
• Nonetheless, core challenges persist. China’s proposed dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo near Arunachal Pradesh has reignited fears of water weaponisation.
• With no water-sharing treaty in place and limited transparency, the potential for ecological and strategic mismanagement looms large.

The Way Forward

• Towards a Coherent China Policy
  • Military Readiness – Ensuring deterrence along contested borders without provoking escalation.
  • Economic Diversification – Reducing critical dependencies while maintaining trade where beneficial.
  • Diplomatic Engagement – Sustaining dialogue through multilateral platforms and bilateral mechanisms.
  • Narrative Control – Shaping regional and global perceptions through strategic communication.
  • This approach requires institutional agility, faster implementation of regional projects, and a mindset geared towards long-term strategic planning.
  • As Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri has articulated, the path forward must be guided by the “three mutuals”—mutual respect, sensitivity, and interest.
• A Moment for Strategy, Not Sentiment
  • As India and China mark 75 years of bilateral ties, nostalgia must give way to strategic clarity.
  • China will remain a structural challenge, but it also functions as a mirror, reflecting India’s aspirations, capabilities, and constraints.
  • India’s objective must be to carve out an autonomous, influential role in a world defined by flux and rivalry.

Conclusion

• In managing its relationship with China, India must not see itself hemmed in by competition but empowered by it.
• The framework of ‘competitive coexistence’ offers a realistic and responsible roadmap, one that acknowledges rivalry while working to prevent friction from igniting conflict.
• In that delicate balance lies the opportunity for India to lead, not just react, in a reshaped global order.

Q1. What defines the current India-China relationship?
Ans. It is best described as one of "competitive coexistence"—balancing rivalry with cooperation.

Q2. Why is full economic decoupling from China not feasible for India?
Ans. Because India remains heavily dependent on Chinese components in key sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics.

Q3. What are the “four pillars” of India’s China policy?
Ans, Military readiness, economic diversification, diplomatic engagement, and narrative control.

Q4. How is China expanding its influence in South Asia?
Ans. Through infrastructure investments like ports, airports, and loans in countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives.

Q5. What recent diplomatic gesture suggested a thaw in India-China relations?
Ans. The resumption of verification patrols along the LAC and talks on hydrological data-sharing. 

Source:The Hindu