The Impact of Suspending a Water Treaty

Context

• In a significant geopolitical shift, the Indian government has taken a hardline stance against Pakistan by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, following the killing of 26 tourists in Jammu and Kashmir.
• This decision, declared by India’s Cabinet Committee on Security, marks a dramatic escalation in response to Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism.
• By holding the IWT in abeyance, India is signalling a potential termination of a longstanding water-sharing agreement, one that has endured multiple wars and diplomatic crises.

Challenges and Implications of India’s Decision to Suspend IWT

• Legal Constraints and Complexities
  • The IWT, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, lacks an explicit provision for unilateral withdrawal.
  • Article XII (4) of the treaty asserts that it remains in force unless terminated through a mutually ratified treaty between India and Pakistan.
  • This significantly constrains India's ability to legally abrogate the treaty without bilateral consent.
  • While some Indian analysts suggest leveraging Articles 60 and 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT), which allow for treaty suspension in cases of material breach or fundamental change of circumstances, these arguments face legal ambiguity.
  • India is not a signatory to the VCLT, and Pakistan has signed but not ratified it.
  • Moreover, applying these provisions would be legally and diplomatically complex, particularly in the absence of clear evidence or international consensus.
  • Pakistan, on the other hand, has signalled intent to challenge India’s move through multiple international legal forums.
  • Minister of State for Law and Justice Aqeel Malik has indicated that Pakistan may appeal to the World Bank, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, or even the UN Security Council, alleging violations of international law, including the VCLT.
• Strategic and Environmental Ramifications
  • India's suspension of the treaty could have profound implications for the Indus Basin.
  • Under the IWT, India is entitled to limited use of the western rivers, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, primarily for non-consumptive purposes such as hydroelectric power generation.
  • The suspension opens the door for India to exert greater control over water flows, including withholding water during dry seasons and releasing it during monsoons.
  • Such actions could precipitate artificial droughts or floods in Pakistan, particularly affecting its agrarian economy.
  • Pakistan’s heavy reliance on these rivers for agriculture, drinking water, and electricity makes it especially vulnerable.
  • Compounding this vulnerability are internal fissures, such as the longstanding inter-provincial water disputes between Punjab and Sindh.
  • The recent controversy over the construction of six new canals, including the Cholistan Canal, has already sparked unrest in Sindh, and further disruptions in water flow from India could worsen domestic instability.

Infrastructure Limitations and India’s Long-Term Strategy

• While India's intent to fully exploit its entitlements under the IWT is clear, practical limitations exist.
• The country currently has a storage capacity of only about 1 million acre-feet (MAF), against an allowable 3.60 MAF under the treaty.
• Similarly, of the permitted 1.34 million acres of irrigation potential, only 0.642 million acres have been developed.
• India has made notable progress on the eastern rivers, Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi, with over 90% of its 33 MAF allocation being utilised through major infrastructure like the Bhakra, Pong, and Ranjit Sagar dams.
• However, on the western rivers, projects such as the Kishanganga, Rattle, and Baglihar dams are primarily run-of-the-river systems, offering limited storage.
• Ambitious future projects, including the Kiru and Pakal Dul dams, aim to increase this capacity, but geographic and bureaucratic challenges imply that a full realisation of India's strategic objectives may take a decade or longer.

Geopolitical Consequences and Regional Diplomacy

• While India’s move may be seen as a strong political message, it carries substantial diplomatic risks.
• The precedent set by suspending a bilateral treaty could prompt other neighbouring countries to reconsider their water-sharing agreements with India.
• For instance, China, the upper riparian to several Indian rivers, could use this as justification to withhold hydrological data or delay renewing Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) on rivers like the Sutlej and Brahmaputra.
• During the 2017 Doklam standoff, China withheld water data from India while continuing to share it with Bangladesh, foreshadowing potential future actions.
• India’s relations with Bangladesh also stand at a critical juncture.
• The Ganga Water Treaty is due for renewal in 2026, and any aggressive water-related decisions could complicate negotiations.
• Similarly, sentiments in Nepal and Sri Lanka may become more cautious, with calls for more rigorous scrutiny of water and infrastructure agreements with New Delhi.

Conclusion

• India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is both a bold assertion of strategic sovereignty and a high-stakes diplomatic gamble.
• While the action may resonate domestically as a tough response to terrorism, its legal footing is uncertain, its implementation constrained by infrastructure, and its broader geopolitical implications significant.
• As India moves forward, it must weigh the benefits of coercive diplomacy against the costs of regional alienation and the erosion of trust in international treaty frameworks.
• In an interconnected and interdependent region, long-term water security may depend less on unilateral action and more on cooperative, sustainable management of shared resources.

Q1. Why did India suspend the Indus Waters Treaty?
Ans. In response to a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir linked to Pakistan.

Q2, Can India legally revoke the IWT unilaterally?
Ans.  No, the treaty requires mutual agreement for termination.

Q3.  What rivers are crucial for Pakistan under the IWT?
Ans. The Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers.

Q4. What international bodies might Pakistan approach?
Ans. The World Bank, Permanent Court of Arbitration, and UN Security Council.

Q5. How might India’s move affect relations with China?
Ans. China may withhold water data or delay renewing related agreements. 

Source:The Hindu