What’s in today’s article?

• Introduction
• Reasons for Declining Fertility in India
• Regional Implications
• Global Context
• Future Implications for India
• Way Forward
• Conclusion

Introduction

• A global demographic analysis conducted by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 highlights a significant decline in fertility levels worldwide, including in India.
• The report reveals a dramatic drop in India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 6.18 in the 1950s to 1.9 in 2021, below the replacement level of 2.1.
• Projections suggest this rate could fall to 1.04 by 2100, signalling major socio-economic implications.

Reasons for Declining Fertility in India

• Increased Female Literacy and Workforce Participation:
  • Women’s empowerment and higher educational attainment have contributed significantly to the decline in fertility rates.
• Changing Societal Attitudes:
  • Late marriages or choosing not to marry are becoming more common as women prioritize careers and financial independence over traditional roles.
• Infertility and Abortions:
  • Rising rates of infertility in men and women and increased abortion rates are also contributing factors.
• Migration:
  • Many young individuals move abroad for higher education and employment, often settling there and raising families outside India.
• Urbanization and Modern Aspirations:
  • With urbanization, families are opting for fewer children to maintain economic and social aspirations.

Regional Implications

• Southern States
  • Kerala and other southern states witnessed demographic transitions earlier than the rest of India, achieving replacement-level fertility in the late 20th century.
  • Challenges include:
    • Ageing Population: The elderly population is rapidly increasing, surpassing the younger demographic.
    • Shrinking Workforce: Youth migration for better prospects has left gaps in the local labor market.
    • Healthcare Demands: There is an increased burden on healthcare systems and social security to support the elderly.
  • Kerala’s Specific Case:
    • Labour Market: High labor wages and quality of life attract migrant workers from other states, making up about one-sixth of the population by 2030.
    • Health Challenges: Delayed motherhood leads to older mothers and higher pregnancy-related morbidities.

Global Context

• Countries like South Korea showcase the challenges of reversing fertility declines.
• Despite heavy investments in pro-natalist policies, South Korea's fertility rate fell from 0.78 in 2022 to 0.73 in 2023, underscoring the difficulty of reversing demographic trends once they set in.

Future Implications for India

• Economic Impacts:
  • A shrinking workforce may hinder economic growth.
  • Increased healthcare costs due to the ageing population.
• Social Challenges:
  • Rising dependency ratios could strain families and welfare systems.
  • Reduced innovation and productivity due to fewer young workers.

Way Forward

• Socio-Economic Policies:
  • Policies focusing on economic growth, job creation, and support for the youth can help mitigate the effects of declining fertility rates.
• Leveraging the Elderly Population:
  • Tap into the potential of senior citizens through skill development and involvement in economic activities.
• Support for Families:
  • Provide incentives for young couples to have children, such as tax benefits, childcare support, and housing subsidies.

Conclusion

• India's declining fertility rates signal a demographic shift with long-term socio-economic implications.
• Proactive policies that address economic, healthcare, and social challenges are crucial to adapting to this transformation.
• Learning from global experiences and focusing on sustainable development will ensure that India navigates these challenges effectively.

Q1. What do you mean by Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?

The number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates currently observed. The reference period is three years preceding the survey.

Q2. What is a good Population Pyramid?

Straight or near vertical sides depict a low death rate. A population pyramid that has fairly straight sides (more like a barrel) shows a population with a falling birth rate and a rising life expectancy. Rapidly tapering top or concave slope suggests high death rate and low life expectancy.
Source : TH

What’s in today’s article?

• Why in News?
• Bhopal gas disaster
• Union Carbide waste disposal
• Is the Waste Harmful?
• What’s Next for Hazardous Waste Disposal?

Why in News?

• On January 2, Madhya Pradesh authorities relocated 358 tonnes of hazardous waste from the defunct Union Carbide facility in Bhopal to the Pithampur industrial area in Dhar district. 
• This action followed a Madhya Pradesh High Court order from December 3, 2024, which set a four-week deadline to dispose of the waste, nearly 40 years after the Bhopal gas disaster that killed over 4,000 people and injured thousands.

Bhopal gas disaster

• About
  • The Bhopal Gas Disaster, one of the world's worst industrial accidents, occurred on the night of December 2-3, 1984, in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh.
• What Happened
  • A highly toxic gas, methyl isocyanate (MIC), leaked from a pesticide plant owned by Union Carbide India Limited (UCIL). 
  • The leak exposed over 500,000 residents to the gas, leading to immediate fatalities and long-term health complications.
• Reasons for the Disaster
  • Poor Maintenance: Safety systems, like gas scrubbers and cooling systems, were either non-functional or inadequate.
  • Negligence: Lack of proper training for workers and failure to follow safety protocols.
  • Cost-Cutting Measures: Union Carbide had reduced staff and safety standards to lower operational costs.
  • Design Flaws: Faulty plant design increased the risk of gas leaks.
  • Storage Issues: Excessive quantities of MIC were stored at the plant, contrary to safety guidelines.

Union Carbide waste disposal

• About the news
  • Hazardous waste from the defunct Union Carbide factory was transported in sealed container trucks from Bhopal to the Pithampur industrial area in Dhar district, 250 km away, for disposal.
• Bhopal Gas Tragedy Waste Disposal: Current Status
  • Background
    • The Bhopal gas tragedy, resulted from poisonous gas leaks at the Union Carbide plant, originally set up to manufacture fertilizers. 
    • The waste at the site consists of fertilizer ingredients that have remained untreated for decades.
  • Planned Disposal
    • The Madhya Pradesh government planned to incinerate 377 tons of hazardous waste at a treatment, storage, and disposal facility (TSDF) in Pithampur, 200 km from Bhopal. 
    • The waste was packaged and labelled per Hazardous Waste Management Rules and transported in secure containers.
  • Challenges
    • Protests by locals in Pithampur over fears of harmful emissions from incineration have delayed the disposal process.
  • High Court Intervention
    • On January 6, 2025, the Madhya Pradesh High Court gave the State government six weeks to safely dispose of the waste. 
    • The State was also instructed to raise public awareness about the disposal methods and their environmental and health safeguards.
• Why Pithampur Was Chosen for Waste Disposal
  • Previous Attempts
    • In 2007, the MP government tried disposing of the waste at an incinerator-equipped TSDF in Ankleshwar, Gujarat, but the facility declined.
  • Supreme Court Selection
    • In 2012, the Supreme Court identified the Pithampur TSDF in Madhya Pradesh as the most suitable site for disposing of the hazardous waste.
    • The facility, equipped with both a landfill and an incinerator, is the only TSDF in the state, according to the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB).
  • CPCB Endorsement
    • In 2013, the CPCB submitted an affidavit to the Supreme Court attesting to the Pithampur TSDF’s capacity to handle waste from the Union Carbide plant.

Is the Waste Harmful?

• Composition of the Waste
  • The trial waste included: 4.8 tonnes of excavated waste; 1.6 tonnes of semi-processed residue; 1.3 tonnes of naphthol waste; 1.3 tonnes of carbaryl residue; 0.8 tonnes of reactor residue.
  • Naphthol is a precursor for carbaryl, the insecticide produced by the Union Carbide plant.
• Water Quality Concerns
  • A December 2024 CPCB report found that water samples near the Pithampur TSDF showed higher-than-permissible levels of:
    • Colour, chloride, sulphate, and fluoride concentrations
    • Hardness and total dissolved solids (TDS)
  • These issues were found in two open wells near the landfill but were attributed to general groundwater quality, not the TSDF operations.
• Health Impact Claims
  • Media reports alleging higher rates of skin diseases around the TSDF were countered by:
    • Surveys from AIIMS Bhopal and the Indian Council of Medical Research, which found lower-than-average cases of skin and respiratory ailments compared to national levels.
• Incineration Residue and Environmental Risks
  • Reports in 2015 indicated that incineration generated four times more ash and residue than the combusted waste.
  • The residue was disposed of in the TSDF landfill with protections against leachates.
  • According to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), composite liners at hazardous waste landfills degrade over time and require periodic replacement to prevent environmental contamination.

What’s Next for Hazardous Waste Disposal?

• Temporary Halt in Incineration
  • The Madhya Pradesh government has delayed waste incineration due to local protests and safety concerns.
• Public Awareness Efforts
  • Authorities plan to build public confidence in the disposal process by addressing misinformation.
  • 50 master trainers (science teachers, professors, and officials) will be trained to educate locals on the waste and disposal process.
• Upcoming Trial Run
  • A new trial run will incinerate 90 kg of waste at 1,200º C.
  • Scientific rationale:
    • Organic compounds like 1-naphthol are destroyed at 590–650º C.
  • Hazardous waste incinerators at 980–1,200º C could eliminate organic contaminants effectively.
• Full-Scale Incineration Plan
  • If emissions remain within legal limits:
    • Waste will be incinerated in batches of 270 kg over three months.
  • If emissions exceed limits:
  • Batch sizes will be reduced, and disposal may extend to nine months.
• Next Steps
  • The next High Court hearing is scheduled for February 18, 2025, to review progress and decide further actions.

Q.1. Why was the Pithampur TSDF chosen for disposing of Union Carbide waste?

The Pithampur TSDF in Madhya Pradesh was selected for its state-of-the-art incinerator and landfill facilities, as endorsed by the Supreme Court and CPCB. It is the only site in the state capable of handling hazardous waste safely.

Q.2. What are the environmental concerns linked to waste disposal at Pithampur?

Concerns include potential groundwater contamination and emissions from incineration. While CPCB reports attribute water quality issues to general conditions, authorities plan trial incinerations and public awareness initiatives to ensure safety.

Source: The trouble with disposing Bhopal’s Union Carbon waste | Explained

Hindustan Times

BBC

What’s in today’s article?

• Why in News?
• SVAMITVA Scheme
• Key highlights of the speech delivered by PM Modi

Why in News?

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi described property cards distributed under the Centre's SVAMITVA scheme as a "guarantee of economic security." 
• Addressing an event via video conferencing, he announced the distribution of over 65 lakh property cards to owners in more than 50,000 villages across 230 districts. He highlighted that once implemented nationwide, the scheme could unlock economic activity worth over ₹100 lakh crore.

SVAMITVA Scheme

• About
  • SVAMITVA stand for - Survey of Villages Abadi and Mapping with Improvised Technology in Village Areas
    • It is a Central Sector Scheme of Ministry of Panchayati Raj.
    • It a collaborative effort of the Ministry of Panchayati Raj, State Panchayati Raj Departments, State Revenue Departments and Survey of India.
  • It was nation-wide launched on National Panchayati Raj Day, 24th April 2021.
• Aim
  • This Scheme is a reformative step towards establishment of clear ownership of property in rural inhabited areas. 
  • It does so by:
    • mapping of land parcels using drone technology and 
    • providing ‘Record of Rights’ to village household owners with issuance of legal ownership cards (Property cards/Title deeds) to the property owners.
• Objectives
  • Creation of accurate land records for rural planning and reduce property related disputes.
  • To bring financial stability to the citizens in rural India by enabling them to use their property as a financial asset for taking loans and other financial benefits.
  • Determination of property tax, which would accrue to the GPs directly in States where it is devolved or else, add to the State exchequer.
  • Creation of survey infrastructure and GIS maps that can be leveraged by any department for their use. 
  • To support in preparation of better-quality Gram Panchayat Development Plan (GPDP) by making use of GIS maps.
• Broad areas of impact
  • Inclusive Society
    • There is a link between access to property rights and improvement in socio-economic standards of vulnerable population in villages. 
    • The SVAMITVA Scheme aims to develop this link.
  • Land Governance
    • Lack of clearly demarcated Abadi area has led to high number of land-conflict cases. 
    • The scheme aims to address the root cause for disputes at local level.
  • Sustainable Habitats
    • High-resolution digital maps for better Gram Panchayat Development Plans (GPDP) will lead to improvement across infrastructure.
  • Economic Growth
    • The key outcome is to help people monetize their property as collateral. 
    • Furthermore, a boost to India’s economic growth through streamlining of Property tax, in States where it is levied leading to increase in investments and ease of doing business.

Image Caption: SVAMITVA Scheme - Broad areas of impact

Key highlights of the speech delivered by PM Modi

• Highlighted economic potential of SVAMITVA Scheme
  • PM Modi highlighted emphasized the role of property cards as a "guarantee of economic security." 
    • Legal property documents have enabled lakhs of people, including small and medium farmers, to secure bank loans and start businesses.
    • The property cards are addressing long-standing issues of illegal occupation and court disputes, particularly benefiting Dalit, backward, and tribal families.
    • Nationwide implementation is expected to unlock economic activity worth ₹100 lakh crore.
• Status
  • Nearly 50% of India's 6 lakh villages have been surveyed by drones since the scheme's launch in 2020, benefiting 2.25 crore people with legal property documents.
• Global Context and Property Rights
  • The Prime Minister cited a UN study and a renowned economist’s book, explaining how lack of legal property rights renders villagers' assets as “dead capital,” restricting their economic potential. 
• Advancements in Land Digitization and Drone Surveys
  • 23 crore Bhu-Aadhaar (ULPIN - unique land parcel identification number) numbers have been issued as part of foundational systems for village development.
  • Approximately 98% of land records have been digitized, and most land maps are now available digitally.
  • Drone surveys have been completed in over 3.17 lakh villages (92% of the target), with full saturation achieved in regions like Puducherry, Tripura, Goa, and Haryana.

Q.1. What is the primary aim of the SVAMITVA scheme?

The SVAMITVA scheme aims to establish clear property ownership in rural areas by mapping land parcels using drones and providing legal property documents, ensuring economic security and reducing land disputes..

Q.2. How has the SVAMITVA scheme impacted rural India?

The scheme has empowered 2.25 crore people by providing legal property documents, enabling access to bank loans, fostering economic activity, and addressing land disputes, especially benefiting vulnerable groups like Dalit, backward, and tribal families.

Source: PM Modi: Property cards under SVAMITVA will unlock economic activity worth over Rs 100 lakh crore

PIB

Times of India

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Key Developments in Rupee Depreciation
• Impact of Depreciation
• Factors Influencing the Rupee’s Future
• Conclusion

Why in News?

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) appears to have eased its control over the rupee, allowing it to depreciate against the US dollar over the last month.
• This marks a departure from its earlier stance of tightly managing the rupee to curb sharp declines, a strategy prominent until late 2024.

Key Developments in Rupee Depreciation:

• Significant depreciation:
  • The rupee, which hovered around 84-85 per dollar, hit its historic low of 86.70 on January 13, 2025, marking its steepest single-day fall in two years.
  • Since November 1, 2024, the rupee has depreciated by 2.6%.
• Possible shift in RBI’s strategy:
  • The RBI’s reduced intervention points to an increased tolerance for rupee depreciation, aligning it with market forces and easing pressure on reserves.
  • Analysts suggest the RBI’s approach of allowing a wider range for the rupee is prudent, reducing resource expenditure.
  • Market experts, however, believe it is too early to attribute this change to the new RBI Governor, Sanjay Malhotra, who took charge on December 11, 2024.
• Reduced intervention:
  • The rupee’s fall indicates a potential recalibration in the RBI’s intervention strategy, driven by the strengthening dollar and the overvaluation of the real effective exchange rate (REER).
  • REER is a measure of a country's currency value relative to a group of other currencies, adjusted for inflation. It's used to assess a country's external balance and economic health.

Impact of Depreciation:

• Forex reserves:
  • India’s foreign exchange reserves declined by $79 billion since September 2024 to $625.87 billion by January 10, 2025.
  • The fall was attributed to dollar sales to manage the rupee and foreign investor withdrawals amounting to over ₹1,43,000 crore.
• Market liquidity deficit: Strong RBI intervention since Q4 FY24 caused a drain in domestic liquidity, pushing the system into deficit despite efforts like cash reserve ratio (CRR) cuts and bond purchases.
• Inflationary concerns: A weaker rupee may exacerbate imported inflation, especially for oil products, adding to inflationary pressures projected at 4.5% for Q4 FY24.

Factors Influencing the Rupee’s Future:

• Dollar strength:
  • The rupee’s trajectory depends on whether the US dollar strengthens further or stabilizes.
  • Expectations hinge on the impact of Donald Trump’s presidency, with potential policy shifts on immigration, taxes, and tariffs influencing the dollar’s strength.
• Predicted levels of rupee: Analysts expect the rupee to depreciate further to around 87 per dollar by March 2025, depending on global market dynamics and Trump’s policy actions.

Conclusion:

• The RBI’s recalibrated stance on the rupee reflects a strategic shift to balance market stability and resource conservation.
• While the long-term implications remain uncertain, this approach could allow for better alignment with global currency trends while addressing liquidity concerns domestically.

Q.1. What is the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)?

NEER is a measure of the value of a currency against a weighted average of several foreign currencies. An increase in NEER indicates an appreciation of the local currency against the weighted basket of currencies of its trading partners.

Q.2. What is a managed floating exchange rate?

A managed floating exchange rate (or dirty float) is an exchange rate regime in which the exchange rate is neither entirely free (or floating) nor fixed. Rather, the value of the currency is kept in a range against another currency (or against a basket of currencies) by central bank intervention.

Source: In calibrated move, RBI loosens grip, lets rupee depreciate against US dollar