What’s in Today’s Article?

• Monsoon Forecasting in India Latest News
• Early Efforts in Monsoon Forecasting
• Post-Independence Challenges and the IMD’s Early Forecasting Models
• Recent Improvements in Monsoon Forecasting
• Monsoon Forecasting in India FAQs

Monsoon Forecasting in India Latest News

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall of 105% of the long-period average (LPA) for the June-September southwest monsoon season. 
• Key drivers like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are favorable for the monsoon.
•  The April 15 forecast is the first of the year, with an updated forecast expected in the last week of May. Long-range forecasts can extend from 30 days to two years.

Early Efforts in Monsoon Forecasting

• A systematic effort to forecast monsoon rainfall began in 1877, following the establishment of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in 1875. 
• The impetus for this was the Great Famine of 1876-78, which highlighted the critical need to understand monsoon patterns for agriculture, revenue, and public health. 
• British colonial interests, including agricultural production and shipping, relied heavily on the monsoon.

Blanford's Contribution (1882-1885)

• The first tentative forecasts were made by Henry Francis Blanford, who analyzed the relationship between Himalayan snow cover and monsoon rainfall. 
• Blanford’s theory suggested that the extent and thickness of snow in the Himalayas influenced rainfall patterns over India, particularly in northwest regions. 

Eliot's Advances (1889)

• Sir John Eliot succeeded Blanford as the first Director General of Indian Observatories in 1889. 
• Eliot expanded on Blanford's work by incorporating data on Himalayan snow, local weather conditions, and factors from the Indian Ocean and Australia. 
• Despite these advancements, Eliot’s forecasts were still unable to predict droughts or famines, such as the devastating Indian Famine of 1899-1900.

Sir Gilbert Walker and Global Influences (1904)

• In 1904, Sir Gilbert Walker succeeded Eliot and made significant advancements by incorporating global atmospheric, land, and ocean parameters. 
• Walker identified 28 predictors with stable historical correlations to the Indian monsoon and identified the Southern Oscillation (SO) as a key global pressure pattern influencing India's climate. 
• SO was later linked to El Niño, which was identified by Jacob Bjerknes in the 1960s. 
• Walker also divided India into three subregions—Peninsula, Northeast, and Northwest—for more accurate forecasts.

Post-Independence Challenges and the IMD’s Early Forecasting Models

• After India’s independence, the IMD continued using Walker’s monsoon forecasting model until 1987, but the forecasts were not very accurate. 
• From 1932 to 1987, the average error in predictions was significant, with errors of 12.33 cm for the peninsula and 9.9 cm for Northwest India. 
• The primary issue was that many of Walker’s parameters had lost their relevance over time, leading to poor accuracy despite attempts to improve the model.

Introduction of the Gowariker Model (1988)

• In 1988, the IMD adopted a new model based on power regression, developed by Vasant R Gowariker and his team. 
• This model used 16 atmospheric variables as predictors in statistical relationships with total rainfall. 
• Forecasts for the entire country replaced regional forecasts, though regional predictions were reintroduced in 1999 with modified geographical boundaries. 
• However, the new model still faced issues, and by 2000, four of the 16 parameters had lost their correlation with the monsoon, requiring adjustments.

Failures and Re-evaluation (2000s)

• The Gowariker model faced significant challenges, including its failure to predict the drought of 2002, which followed 14 years of good monsoons. 
• This failure led to a re-evaluation of the model. 
• In 2003, the IMD introduced two new models based on 8 and 10 parameters, along with a two-stage forecast strategy. 
• While the 2003 forecast was accurate, the models again failed to predict the 2004 drought, prompting further refinement.

Development of the Statistical Forecasting System (2007)

• In 2007, the IMD introduced a Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) to support its two-stage forecasting strategy. 
• This new system reduced the number of parameters in the models, replacing the eight-parameter model with a five-parameter model for the first forecast and the ten-parameter model with a six-parameter model for the update. 
• The aim was to avoid "overfitting," ensuring the models could accurately predict new data.
• The IMD also implemented ensemble forecasting, which combined all possible forecasting models based on different predictor combinations to generate a more robust prediction. 
• This new approach significantly improved the accuracy of monsoon forecasts, with the average error decreasing from 7.94% of the long-period average (LPA) between 1995 and 2006 to 5.95% of LPA between 2007 and 2018.

Recent Improvements in Monsoon Forecasting

• Launch of the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) - 2012
  • The introduction of the MMCFS in 2012 marked a significant advancement in monsoon prediction. 
  • This coupled dynamic model combined data from the ocean, atmosphere, and land to provide more accurate forecasts. 
  • The IMD used MMCFS alongside the SEFS for improved predictions.
• Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) Approach - 2021
  • In 2021, the IMD further enhanced its forecasting accuracy with the introduction of an MME system. 
  • This approach incorporated coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from various global climate prediction and research centers, including India’s own MMCFS. 
  • The MME system has significantly improved the accuracy of monsoon predictions.
• Notable Improvements in Forecast Accuracy
  • Since the introduction of SEFS in 2007 and MME in 2021, the IMD's operational forecasts have shown marked improvement. 
  • The absolute forecast error in India's seasonal rainfall has decreased by about 21% between 2007 and 2024 compared to 1989-2006. 
  • IMD's April forecasts have also become more precise, with deviations of only 2.27 percentage points in the actual rainfall from 2021-2024, well within the forecast range of 4%.
• Scope for Further Improvement
  • Despite these advancements, there is still room for further refinement. 
  • Experts have suggested that the IMD should improve its dynamical models by addressing systematic errors and biases, as well as enhancing teleconnectivity with global climate modes such as the ENSO. 
  • This could further enhance the precision of the IMD's monsoon forecasts.

Monsoon Forecasting in India FAQs

Q1. When did systematic monsoon forecasting begin in India?

Ans. Systematic monsoon forecasting began in 1877 after the establishment of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in 1875.

Q2. Who introduced global atmospheric parameters into India's monsoon forecasts?

Ans. Sir Gilbert Walker introduced global atmospheric, land, and ocean parameters into India's monsoon forecasting in 1904.

Q3. What was the purpose of the Gowariker model introduced in 1988?

Ans. The Gowariker model aimed to improve forecast accuracy using 16 atmospheric variables through power regression techniques.

Q4. What is the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS)?

Ans. MMCFS is a dynamic model introduced in 2012 combining ocean, atmosphere, and land data for improved monsoon prediction.

Q5. How has forecast accuracy improved since 2007?

Ans. Forecast error reduced by about 21% between 2007-2024, aided by SEFS and the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach.

Source: IE | IE

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Supreme Court on Unopposed Elections Latest News
• Background - Petition and Argument
• Uncontested Elections in Lok Sabha
• Response of the Election Commission of India (ECI)
• View of the Supreme Court
• Supreme Court on Unopposed Elections FAQs

Supreme Court on Unopposed Elections Latest News

• The Supreme Court recently suggested that if there is only one candidate in an election, they should be required to secure a minimum prescribed vote share to be declared elected, rather than winning automatically without a poll. 
• The Court was hearing a petition filed by the Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy, which challenged the constitutionality of Section 53(2) of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. This section currently allows a sole candidate to be declared elected without an election. 

Background - Petition and Argument

• The petition was filed in August 2024. 
• It argues that if an election is not held when there is only one candidate, voters lose the chance to choose the "None of the Above" (NOTA) option. 
• This, the petition says, violates the fundamental rights of voters.

Reference to Supreme Court Judgment

• The petition cites the Supreme Court’s 2013 judgment in People’s Union for Civil Liberties vs Union of India.
• In this judgment, the Court recognized the right to cast a negative vote (NOTA) as protected under Article 19(1)(a) of the Constitution.

Core Argument

• It argues that the right to express disapproval through NOTA should be available regardless of the number of candidates contesting the election.

Uncontested Elections in Lok Sabha

• The petition states that between 1951 and 2024, candidates were elected uncontested in 26 Lok Sabha constituencies, based on Election Commission of India reports. 
• As a result, over 82 lakh voters were deprived of their right to vote.

Breakup of Uncontested Elections

• According to the petition, uncontested elections occurred as follows: seven in 1957, five each in 1951 and 1967, three in 1962, two in 1977, and one each in 1971, 1980, 1989, and 2024.

Recent Example

• In 2024, BJP candidate Mukeshkumar Dalal was declared elected unopposed from Surat after all other candidates withdrew or had their nominations rejected.

Uncontested Elections in State Assemblies

• The petition also points out that uncontested elections are more frequent in state Assembly elections.

Response of the Election Commission of India (ECI)

• The ECI, in its counter affidavit, noted that uncontested elections occurred in only nine out of 20 Lok Sabha elections held between 1951 and 2024. 
• Since 1989, only one MP has been elected uncontested, highlighting that such instances have become extremely rare with the growth of political participation and voter awareness.

Argument Against the Petition

• The Commission argued that with democracy evolving and more parties contesting, the likelihood of uncontested elections is now minimal. 
• Therefore, the Supreme Court should not entertain the petition.

Position on NOTA

• The ECI emphasized that the "None of the Above" (NOTA) option is available only when polling takes place. 
• NOTA is not to be treated as a competing candidate in uncontested elections.

Need for Legislative Change

• The Commission stated that recognizing NOTA as a mandatory contesting option would require amendments to the RPA, 1951, and the Conduct of Elections Rules, 1961, as the current law does not provide for this.

View of the Supreme Court

• Suggestion for Minimum Vote Requirement
  • SC suggested that when only one candidate remains, they should be required to secure a minimum percentage of votes — such as 10% or 15% — to be declared elected, rather than winning automatically.
• Democracy and Majority Principle
  • It emphasized that democracy is founded on majority support, and even in uncontested situations, a candidate should have at least some voters’ approval to uphold democratic principles.
• Advice to the Government
  • SC urged the government to consider introducing a provision to address such scenarios in the future, stressing that Parliament could decide the specifics. 
  • It questioned the idea of allowing someone to enter Parliament "by default" without even minimal voter support.

Supreme Court on Unopposed Elections FAQs

Q1. What did the Supreme Court suggest for unopposed elections?

Ans. It suggested candidates must secure a minimum vote percentage to be declared elected.

Q2. Which law allows automatic wins in uncontested elections?

Ans. Section 53(2) of the Representation of the People Act, 1951.

Q3. Why was the petition filed against uncontested elections?

Ans. It argued voters lose their right to express disapproval through NOTA.

Q4. What is the Election Commission’s stand on uncontested elections?

Ans. The ECI said uncontested elections are now extremely rare.

Q5. What did the Supreme Court emphasize about democracy?

Ans. Democracy requires majority support, even when only one candidate contests.

Source: IE | B&B | IE

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Corporate Social Responsibility Latest News
• About Corporate Social Responsibility:
• Rise in CSR Spending in FY24
• Leading CSR Contributors
• Sectoral Allocation of CSR Funds
• Trends in Compliance and Governance
• Call for Revising CSR Thresholds
• Future Outlook
• CSR Spending India FY24 FAQs

Corporate Social Responsibility Latest News

• Funds spent by listed companies on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) rose by 16 per cent to Rs 17,967 crore in 2023-24, in comparison to 2022-23.

About Corporate Social Responsibility:

• Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has become a central pillar of India's corporate governance framework. 
• Enacted through the Companies Act, 2013 and enforced from April 2014, CSR mandates eligible companies to spend at least 2% of their average net profits over the preceding three years on socially impactful initiatives. 
• Companies with a net worth of ₹500 crore, turnover of ₹1,000 crore, or net profit of ₹5 crore are obligated to undertake CSR activities.
• The intent behind the CSR mandate is twofold: to ensure that businesses contribute meaningfully to society, and to embed social responsibility as an integral part of corporate strategy. 
• Over the years, CSR in India has expanded to include areas like education, healthcare, rural development, environmental sustainability, and cultural heritage.
• While compliance levels have consistently improved, recent trends suggest an evolving landscape where corporates are increasingly aligning their CSR strategies with sustainable development goals and national priorities.

Rise in CSR Spending in FY24

• In the financial year 2023-24, India witnessed a 16% surge in CSR spending, with listed companies investing a total of ₹17,967 crore, up from ₹15,524 crore in FY23. 
• This significant rise mirrors the 18% increase in average three-year net profits, which grew to ₹9.62 lakh crore from ₹8.14 lakh crore.
• As per the CSR mandate, companies were required to spend ₹18,309 crore. 
• The slight shortfall between required and actual spending was due to ₹2,329 crore being transferred to Unspent CSR Accounts for future utilization.
• This increase in spending came after three years of relatively flat growth, signalling a strong corporate commitment towards social welfare, driven by regulatory push and profit expansion.

Leading CSR Contributors

• The top CSR spenders in FY24 were among India’s largest and most influential corporates:
  • HDFC Bank: ₹945.31 crore
  • Reliance Industries: ₹900 crore
  • Tata Consultancy Services (TCS): ₹827 crore
  • Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC): ₹634.57 crore
  • Tata Steel: ₹580.02 crore
  • ICICI Bank: ₹518.87 crore
  • Indian Oil Corporation (IOC): ₹457.71 crore
  • Infosys Ltd: ₹455.67 crore
  • ITC Ltd: ₹404.05 crore
  • Power Grid Corporation of India: ₹330.48 crore
• These ten companies together contributed a significant portion of the total CSR expenditure, reinforcing the trend that large corporates are the key drivers of CSR activities in India.

Sectoral Allocation of CSR Funds

• CSR funds were predominantly directed towards key societal needs:
  • Education remained the top priority, attracting ₹1,104 crore.
  • Healthcare followed closely, receiving ₹720 crore.
• Notably, spending on environmental sustainability saw the steepest increase, with a 54% growth compared to the previous year. 
• Meanwhile, areas like slum development (-72%), rural development (-59%), and armed forces veterans’ welfare (-52%) witnessed significant declines.
• This sectoral shift indicates a growing awareness and responsiveness among corporates towards environmental challenges and the sustainable development agenda.

Trends in Compliance and Governance

• Corporate compliance with CSR norms continued to remain robust:
  • 98% of the 1,394 eligible companies fulfilled their CSR obligations.
  • Around 49% of the companies exceeded their mandated spending, reflecting a proactive approach.
  • Only 259 companies fell short of the spending requirement, mainly due to multi-year project planning.
  • Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) also enhanced their contribution, with 66 PSUs spending ₹3,717 crore, marking a 19% increase from the previous year.
• Governance around CSR has also improved. Companies spending over ₹50 lakh must form a CSR Committee comprising at least three directors, including one independent director. 
• Among the 1,028 companies mandated to set up committees, 990 had fully compliant structures.

Call for Revising CSR Thresholds

• Given the significant rise in average corporate profits over the past decade, experts have called for a revision of CSR eligibility thresholds. 
• The original thresholds were set when the average three-year net profit was ₹4.18 lakh crore; now it has more than doubled to ₹9.62 lakh crore. 
• Revising these limits would help focus CSR mandates on larger entities and ease regulatory burdens on smaller companies.

Future Outlook

• As India's economy grows, CSR is expected to evolve from being a compliance obligation to a strategic pillar for brand building, social impact, and stakeholder trust. 
• Emerging focus areas are likely to include:
  • Climate change mitigation
  • Digital inclusion
  • Skilling for the future workforce
  • Healthcare innovations
• Greater integration of CSR initiatives with corporate business strategies and national development programs will further enhance their effectiveness and impact.

CSR Spending India FY24 FAQs

Q1. How much did Indian companies spend on CSR activities in FY24?

Ans. Indian listed companies spent ₹17,967 crore on CSR activities in FY24.

Q2. Which companies led CSR spending in FY24?

Ans. HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, and TCS were the top three CSR spenders.

Q3. Which sectors received the highest CSR funding?

Ans. Education and healthcare were the leading sectors in CSR funding.

Q4. What was the compliance rate for CSR obligations in FY24?

Ans. 98% of eligible companies met their CSR spending obligations.

Q5. Why is there a demand to revise CSR thresholds?

Ans. Rising corporate profits suggest that revising thresholds could ease the burden on smaller companies.

Source: IE | FE