Articles on 2 July 2025

Context

• In the intricate matrix of South Asian geopolitics, the triangular relationship between the United States, India, and Pakistan presents a complex narrative, one shaped by strategic necessity, ideological contests, national interests, and deep-rooted historical legacies.
• Recent developments, particularly during Donald Trump’s return to power, have cast new light on longstanding alliances, emerging fractures, and evolving national doctrines.
• Against this volatile backdrop, each actor navigates the treacherous waters of diplomacy, security, and influence, recalibrating old partnerships while striving to redefine their place in a rapidly changing world order.

The Triangular Dynamic in South Asian Geopolitics

• The U.S. Pivot
  • The Trump administration’s foreign policy approach represents a stark departure from traditional diplomacy.
  • Eschewing long-term doctrines in favour of short-term strategic gains, Trump's transactional style has developed a renewed engagement with Pakistan.
  • His overtures, notably a symbolic lunch with Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and his repeated claims of brokering peace between India and Pakistan, have evoked memories of Cold War-era realpolitik.
  • These gestures underscore an American willingness to employ shortcut diplomacy, even at the cost of previous strategic alignments.
• Revival of US Pakistan Relations
  • The revival of U.S.-Pakistan ties under Trump’s second term, particularly the authorisation of $397 million to sustain Islamabad’s F-16 fleet and public commendation of Pakistan as a phenomenal partner, signals a notable recalibration.
  • Pakistan’s military, portrayed as a knowledgeable interlocutor on Iran, is being positioned as a potential regional asset, especially amid tensions involving Iran and Israel.
  • This strategic shift threatens to erode decades of U.S.-India cooperation built on shared counterterrorism interests and converging concerns about China's regional ambitions.
• India’s Disillusionment and Doctrinal Shift
  • India’s initial synergy with Trump, rooted in a shared condemnation of Pakistan's double-dealing on terrorism, has begun to fray in light of Washington’s overtures toward Islamabad.
  • India’s security doctrine has evolved in response. The devastating terror attack in Pahalgam catalysed Operation Sindoor, an assertive military response that marked a clear break from India’s traditional policy of strategic restraint.
  • India’s declaration of a new normal exemplifies a doctrinal shift: one that combines hard military retaliation with global diplomatic campaigns aimed at isolating Pakistan.
  • This assertiveness coincides with growing fears of a two-front conflict, given Pakistan’s deepening ties with Beijing, whose adversarial posture towards New Delhi adds a dangerous layer of complexity to the region’s security calculus.

Pakistan’s Strategic Recalibration and Diplomatic Offensives

• Amidst internal political turmoil and external pressures, Pakistan is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy that blends military strength with diplomatic manoeuvring.
• The promotion of Asim Munir to field marshal signifies the formal consolidation of military dominance in Pakistan’s national security framework.
• This entrenchment of a hard state approach, resistant to civilian oversight, reflects Rawalpindi’s determination to assert control at home and abroad.
• Simultaneously, Pakistan is leveraging its geographical centrality, straddling South Asia, West Asia, and Central Asia, to position itself as indispensable to U.S. strategic interests.
• Economic negotiations, rare earth mineral deals, and personal diplomacy have become tools in a charm offensive designed to restore Pakistan’s relevance and gain economic lifelines.
• While Pakistan lacks the economic and demographic heft of India, it compensates through its geographic utility and agility in diplomatic corridors. 

America’s Balancing Act and Pakistan’s Enduring Relevance

• America’s Balancing Act and Strategic Ambivalence
  • The United States now finds itself in a position of strategic ambivalence. On one hand, India’s role in the Indo-Pacific and its participation in frameworks like the Quad should anchor it firmly within American strategic priorities.
  • Yet, Trump’s America appears increasingly preoccupied with trade deals and personal diplomacy, often at the expense of broader ideological or institutional commitments.
  • Any American move to equate the two rivals, the so-called hyphenation, undermines India’s global aspirations and risks alienating one of its most natural democratic partners in the region.
• Pakistan’s Enduring Relevance
  • Pakistan’s continued relevance in American foreign policy rests not only on its location but also on the military’s sophisticated use of personal diplomacy.
  • Proximity to flashpoints like Iran, Afghanistan, and China makes Pakistan a geographically strategic player.
  • This, combined with its intelligence and logistical capabilities, ensures that some factions in Washington view Pakistan as a vital cog in their regional machinery.
  • This perception fuels Pakistan’s confidence in counterbalancing India, even as the latter boasts superior economic and demographic indicators.

Conclusion

• The triangular dynamic among the United States, India, and Pakistan is marked by shifting allegiances, strategic opportunism, and competing visions for regional order.
• For the U.S., the challenge lies in balancing short-term strategic imperatives with long-term values and partnerships.
• For India, it means navigating a recalibrated regional order without compromising its sovereign stance or strategic autonomy.