Bangladesh in Flux: Jamaat’s Rising Influence and India’s Strategic Choices

Bangladesh Political Turmoil Latest News

• Amid widespread violence and political unrest in Bangladesh, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) acting chairman Tarique Rahman returned to the country after 17 years in exile. 
• The turmoil has also been marked by intensifying anti-India rhetoric, raising regional and diplomatic concerns.

Forces Driving the Current Turmoil in Bangladesh

• A Planned Regime-Change Operation (July–August 2024)
  • The unrest that began in July–August 2024 has often been described as a spontaneous uprising, but evidence points to a planned operation aimed at regime change. 
  • Bangladesh’s chief adviser Muhammad Yunus publicly acknowledged this in September, identifying a close aide as the strategist behind it. 
  • The Jamaat-e-Islami, long aligned with Pakistan, emerged as a key driving force—and now exerts significant influence over the administration.
• Dismantling the Post-1971 Political Order
  • A central objective has been to erase the post-1971 legacy. 
  • From August 5, 2024, symbols and institutions linked to the Liberation War and the Awami League have been targeted, signalling an attempt to rewrite national memory and politics.
• Minority Repression and Visible Islamisation
  • Another major strand is a crackdown on minorities and a push toward more overt Islamisation. 
  • Hindus, Buddhists, Christians, and Ahmadiyyas have faced attacks, including allegations of killings, sexual violence, property destruction, and land grabs. 
  • The lynching of Dipu Chandra Das drew international condemnation, underscoring the severity of abuses.

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Mobocracy and Media Control as Tools

• Jamaat-e-Islami’s consolidation of power has been accompanied by violence and unrest as methods of control.
  • Mobocracy: Crowds surround offices, officials, and judges until demands are met.
  • Institutional Capture: Jamaat-aligned appointees are replacing incumbents across bureaucracy and academia.
  • Media Suppression: Attacks on journalists and outlets have surged; offices of Prothom Alo and The Daily Star were recently attacked, and some journalists detained without trial.

Economic Unravelling and India Ties

• The turmoil has disrupted long-standing economic cooperation with India, built over decades under Sheikh Hasina. 
• An economy that grew 6.5–7% annually for 15 years has slowed sharply: growth has halved, factories are closing, unemployment is rising, private investment has stalled, and inflation is high.

Tarique Rahman’s Return: Political Impact After 17 Years

• Tarique Rahman, acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has returned after 17 years in exile and is widely seen as a frontrunner if elections are held soon. 
• However, with the Awami League barred from contesting, any poll in the current climate would likely fall short of being free or fair.
• Rahman’s return is expected to trigger a surge of public support, partly driven by sympathy for his ailing mother. 
• Still, an electoral victory is not assured, given shifting alliances and internal party dynamics.
• Rahman’s homecoming does not materially alter the fundamentals: a constrained electoral field, a fragmented BNP, and an emboldened Jamaat. 
• Popular enthusiasm may be high, but structural realities limit Rahman’s room to reshape outcomes in the near term.

Rising Anti-India Rhetoric in Bangladesh

• Anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh is not new. Even during 1971, around 20% of the population opposed the Liberation War and India’s role. 
• This strand has endured over decades alongside mainstream politics.
• Parallel to this undercurrent, India–Bangladesh relations have been anchored by deep economic cooperation and people-to-people links—including tourism, medical travel, education, and trade—creating mutual stakes beyond politics.

India’s First Priority: Reassure the Bangladeshi People

• India should signal goodwill toward the people of Bangladesh, not regimes alone. 
• New Delhi has already demonstrated this by continuing aid and trade, keeping communication channels open, and recently agreeing to export 50,000 metric tonnes of rice. 
• Maintaining strategic restraint while engaging all principal actors remains key.

India’s Second Priority: Push for Inclusive Elections

• New Delhi should insist on free, fair, and inclusive elections that allow participation by all parties, including the Awami League. 
• Only an inclusive process can restore legitimacy and stability; exclusion risks prolonging violence and volatility.

Why the India–Bangladesh Relationship Matters Deeply

• For Bangladesh, cooperation with India was central to its economic success under Sheikh Hasina. 
• India has consistently been the first responder in times of need and a reliable partner due to geographic proximity, competitive pricing, shared history, and strong people-to-people ties. 
• While the current regime is engaging Pakistan, China, and Turkey, none can replicate the scale, speed, or depth of support India provides.

Vital for India’s Security Interests

• For India, Bangladesh is pivotal primarily due to security considerations. 
• The two share a 4,000+ km porous land border and a maritime boundary, making cooperation essential. 
• In the past, Pakistan-backed terror networks and Northeast insurgent groups used Bangladeshi territory as a haven—an issue the Hasina government actively helped address.

Growing Strategic Risks Since August 2024

• Since August 2024, Pakistan’s state and military have reportedly re-established pre-1971 command-and-control linkages with Bangladesh, seeking deeper military embedding, including near the India–Bangladesh border. 
• This raises concerns about regional security spillovers.

Source: IE