What Iran’s Withdrawal from the NPT Could Mean for Global Nuclear Stability

Iran NPT Withdrawal Latest News

• In the wake of rising military tensions, Iran’s Parliament is drafting a Bill to potentially withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). 
• This move follows recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, citing concerns that Iran was nearing weapons-grade uranium enrichment.

About The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

• The NPT is a global treaty signed in 1968 and entered into force in 1970, aimed at:
  • Preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and technology
  • Promoting peaceful uses of nuclear energy
  • Supporting nuclear disarmament

Background: Post-World War II Nuclear Concerns

• After the atomic bombings in Japan (1945), nations began a nuclear arms race. 
• Alongside, efforts emerged to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons and technology.

Atoms for Peace Initiative (1953)

• Launched by U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower
• Advocated for the peaceful use of nuclear energy
• Paved the way for the formation of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
• Introduced a safeguards system to monitor and verify civilian nuclear activities

Safeguards and Verification

• Non-nuclear weapon states must submit detailed reports on nuclear activities
• Allow IAEA inspections to prevent diversion of nuclear materials for weapons
• Part of the “basic bargain”: peaceful nuclear assistance in exchange for oversight

Definition of Nuclear States under the NPT

• Nuclear states are those that tested nuclear weapons before January 1, 1967.
• This included:
  • United States
  • United Kingdom
  • France
  • Soviet Union (now Russia)
  • China

Membership and Non-Signatories

• 191 countries are parties to the treaty
• Non-signatories include:
  • India: Conducted nuclear tests in 1974; opposes the discriminatory nature of the treaty
  • Pakistan: Not a signatory
  • Israel: Neither confirms nor denies nuclear weapons possession; hasn’t signed
  • North Korea: Signed in 1985, withdrew in 2003, expelled IAEA inspectors

Criticism

• Viewed as discriminatory for legitimizing nuclear weapons only for the P5 (UNSC permanent members).
• The 1967 cut-off date is seen as arbitrary, reinforcing a nuclear hierarchy.

How Can a Country Leave the NPT

• Under Article 10 of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT):
• • A country may withdraw if extraordinary events jeopardize its supreme national interests.
  • It must notify all treaty parties and the UN Security Council three months in advance, citing those events.

Iran’s NPT Membership and Recent Developments

• Iran joined the NPT in 1970, prior to its Islamic Revolution (1979).
• For the first time in nearly 20 years, the IAEA Board of Governors recently censured Iran, citing:
  • Repeated failure since 2019 to cooperate fully with the agency.
  • Discovery of undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple sites.
• Iran’s Response
  • Iran denied violations, stating it has adhered to its safeguards obligations under the NPT.
  • However, tensions have grown, particularly after recent Israeli strikes and Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks.

Implications of Iran Withdrawing from the NPT

• End of IAEA Oversight
  • Iran would no longer be subject to IAEA inspections, which averaged 1.4 site visits per day in 2023.
  • This would reduce international visibility into Iran’s nuclear activities.
• Risk of Destabilizing the Global Non-Proliferation Regime
  • Iran’s withdrawal could set a precedent for other states to follow.
  • Could lead to a weakening of global cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation.
• Does Withdrawal Mean Weaponization
  • Leaving the NPT does not automatically imply Iran will build nuclear weapons.
  • However, historical cases (e.g., North Korea) show that withdrawal may precede weapon development.
  • Iran has denied such intentions, but regional instability fuels uncertainty.
• Scholarly Perspective: The Value of NPT
  • Experts argue that:
    • Even imperfect adherence can significantly slow nuclear proliferation.
    • A global treaty can maintain normative pressure until a tipping point is reached, beyond which violations could undermine the regime altogether.

Source: IE | NYT | MSNBC