What Iran’s Withdrawal from the NPT Could Mean for Global Nuclear Stability

Iran may exit the NPT amid rising tensions with Israel. Know the implications for inspections, global norms, and nuclear risks.

Iran NPT withdrawal

Iran NPT Withdrawal Latest News

  • In the wake of rising military tensions, Iran’s Parliament is drafting a Bill to potentially withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). 
  • This move follows recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, citing concerns that Iran was nearing weapons-grade uranium enrichment.

About The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

  • The NPT is a global treaty signed in 1968 and entered into force in 1970, aimed at:
    • Preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and technology
    • Promoting peaceful uses of nuclear energy
    • Supporting nuclear disarmament

Background: Post-World War II Nuclear Concerns

  • After the atomic bombings in Japan (1945), nations began a nuclear arms race. 
  • Alongside, efforts emerged to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons and technology.

Atoms for Peace Initiative (1953)

  • Launched by U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower
  • Advocated for the peaceful use of nuclear energy
  • Paved the way for the formation of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
  • Introduced a safeguards system to monitor and verify civilian nuclear activities

Safeguards and Verification

  • Non-nuclear weapon states must submit detailed reports on nuclear activities
  • Allow IAEA inspections to prevent diversion of nuclear materials for weapons
  • Part of the “basic bargain”: peaceful nuclear assistance in exchange for oversight

Definition of Nuclear States under the NPT

  • Nuclear states are those that tested nuclear weapons before January 1, 1967.
  • This included:
    • United States
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Soviet Union (now Russia)
    • China

Membership and Non-Signatories

  • 191 countries are parties to the treaty
  • Non-signatories include:
    • India: Conducted nuclear tests in 1974; opposes the discriminatory nature of the treaty
    • Pakistan: Not a signatory
    • Israel: Neither confirms nor denies nuclear weapons possession; hasn’t signed
    • North Korea: Signed in 1985, withdrew in 2003, expelled IAEA inspectors

Criticism

  • Viewed as discriminatory for legitimizing nuclear weapons only for the P5 (UNSC permanent members).
  • The 1967 cut-off date is seen as arbitrary, reinforcing a nuclear hierarchy.

How Can a Country Leave the NPT

  • Under Article 10 of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT):
    • A country may withdraw if extraordinary events jeopardize its supreme national interests.
    • It must notify all treaty parties and the UN Security Council three months in advance, citing those events.

Iran’s NPT Membership and Recent Developments

  • Iran joined the NPT in 1970, prior to its Islamic Revolution (1979).
  • For the first time in nearly 20 years, the IAEA Board of Governors recently censured Iran, citing:
    • Repeated failure since 2019 to cooperate fully with the agency.
    • Discovery of undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple sites.
  • Iran’s Response
    • Iran denied violations, stating it has adhered to its safeguards obligations under the NPT.
    • However, tensions have grown, particularly after recent Israeli strikes and Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks.

Implications of Iran Withdrawing from the NPT

  • End of IAEA Oversight
    • Iran would no longer be subject to IAEA inspections, which averaged 1.4 site visits per day in 2023.
    • This would reduce international visibility into Iran’s nuclear activities.
  • Risk of Destabilizing the Global Non-Proliferation Regime
    • Iran’s withdrawal could set a precedent for other states to follow.
    • Could lead to a weakening of global cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation.
  • Does Withdrawal Mean Weaponization
    • Leaving the NPT does not automatically imply Iran will build nuclear weapons.
    • However, historical cases (e.g., North Korea) show that withdrawal may precede weapon development.
    • Iran has denied such intentions, but regional instability fuels uncertainty.
  • Scholarly Perspective: The Value of NPT
    • Experts argue that:
      • Even imperfect adherence can significantly slow nuclear proliferation.
      • A global treaty can maintain normative pressure until a tipping point is reached, beyond which violations could undermine the regime altogether.

Source: IE | NYT | MSNBC

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Iran NPT Withdrawal FAQs

Q1. What is the NPT’s main objective? +

Q2. Can countries legally exit the NPT? +

Q3. Why is Iran considering leaving the NPT?+

Q4. What happens if Iran exits the treaty?+

Q5. Will NPT withdrawal lead to nuclear arms? +

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Vajiram Editor
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