Renewed Syrian Conflict: Key Developments and Implications of the New Rebel Offensive

What’s in today’s article?

• Why in News?
• Syrian civil war
• Key players in Syria’s long-running civil war
• New phase of war in Syria

Why in News?

• Syria's prolonged civil war has gained renewed global attention following a significant rebel offensive. Insurgents have seized Aleppo, the country's largest city, along with numerous nearby towns and villages. The offensive marks the most intense clashes since a 2020 ceasefire.
• Rebels have now secured full control of Daraa province, their third major conquest after Aleppo and Hama, with plans to target Homs and Sweida. 

Syrian civil war

• Origin
  • The Syrian civil war began around the "Arab Spring" of 2010, which saw uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa against long-standing authoritarian governments. 
  • While some countries, like Tunisia and Egypt, experienced regime change, most movements were suppressed by governments and militaries. 
  • Social media platforms, especially Twitter, played a role in spreading pro-democracy ideas. 
  • Foreign powers, including the US and Russia, responded based on their strategic interests.
• Conflict in Syria
  • In Syria, protests emerged against President Assad, who has been in power since 2000. 
  • While Assad's regime now controls most of the country, some regions remain outside his grasp, including Kurdish-majority areas in the east, parts of the south, and regions controlled by Islamic State offshoots.
• The 2020 Ceasefire in Idlib
  • A ceasefire deal brokered by Turkey and Russia in March 2020 brought relative calm to Idlib province. 
  • Turkey backs Syrian rebels, while Russia supports the Assad regime. Since the ceasefire, HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, has maintained de facto control of Idlib.
    • HTS, designated a terrorist group by the US, Russia, and Turkey, has a complex relationship with Turkey. 
    • Turkey acts as Idlib’s protector, shielding it from large-scale attacks by Assad's forces and their Russian allies. 
    • Simultaneously, Turkey controls the border, facilitating trade and taxation critical to HTS’s operations.

Key players in Syria’s long-running civil war

• Syrian Government
  • Led by President Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian government has been central to the civil war since 2011. 
  • With support from Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, Assad has regained much of the lost territory.
• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
  • Initially formed as the Al Nusra Front with ties to the Islamic State and Al Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham emerged as a major jihadist faction by 2016.
• United States
  • The U.S. initially supported opposition groups but shifted focus to fighting the Islamic State from 2014. 
  • It provides airstrikes and support to Kurdish forces, maintaining about 900 troops in Syria.
• Turkey
  • Turkey has conducted military interventions mainly against Kurdish-led forces and now controls parts of Syria's northern border.
• Russia
  • A key ally of Assad, Russia has supported the regime with troops, airstrikes, and a military presence at air and naval bases in Syria.
• Iran and Hezbollah
  • Syria is part of Iran's "axis of resistance," with Hezbollah playing a central role in opposing Israel and reducing U.S. influence in the region.
• Israel
  • Israel targets Hezbollah and Iranian positions in Syria, focusing on military personnel, weapons facilities, and transport routes for arms.
• Kurdish Forces
  • The U.S.'s main partner in the fight against the Islamic State, Kurdish forces also face conflicts with Turkey, which views them as linked to a separatist insurgency.

New phase of war in Syria

• Surprise attack
  • On November 27, Syria’s “Military Opposition Command” launched an offensive against President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, capturing Aleppo after battles in Idlib, Aleppo, and Hama. 
  • In response, Assad’s allies, Iran and Russia, pledged support, with Syrian and Russian jets striking rebel-held areas in northwestern Syria.
• Significance of the Current Syrian Offensive
  • Strongest Rebel Effort in Years
    • The latest offensive by Syrian rebels represents their most significant action in recent years. 
    • However, Assad’s regime has experience quelling similar rebellions, as seen in Aleppo in 2016 with Russian air support, a strategy being repeated now.
  • Regime Vulnerability
    • The attack underscores Assad’s vulnerabilities, with key allies like Iran and Hezbollah preoccupied elsewhere. 
    • Israel, supported by the US, has been actively combating Hezbollah in Lebanon due to its support for Hamas. 
    • Meanwhile, Russia remains embroiled in its war with Ukraine since 2022.
  • Persistent Regional Instability
    • Despite a provisional ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon on November 27, violations were reported. 
    • The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted two airstrikes on Hezbollah assets in southern Lebanon, suggesting peace in the region remains uncertain in the short term.

Q.1. What triggered the recent escalation in Syria?

The recent escalation began with Syria’s “Military Opposition Command” launching an offensive on November 27, seizing Aleppo and intensifying conflict. Assad’s allies, including Russia and Iran, responded with airstrikes against rebels.

Q.2. What makes this phase of the war significant?

This is the strongest rebel offensive in years, highlighting Assad's vulnerabilities, especially as key allies are occupied elsewhere, including Russia's war with Ukraine and Israeli-Lebanese tensions.

Source: Rebel offensive in Syria: What is happening now and why?

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