Southern States Witness Sharper Decline in Birth Rates Than National Average

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Recently, the Registrar General of India released the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2021.

The Sample Registration System(SRS) Statistical Report 2021, released by the Registrar General of India, reveals a significant demographic shift in India.
States like Tamil Nadu, Delhi, and Kerala are experiencing a sharper decline in birth rates compared to the national average.
This trend reflects a broader change in fertility patterns, lifestyle preferences, and access to health and family planning services.

Image Caption: Birth Rates in Decline

As per the report, the all-India crude birth rate (CBR) in 2021 stood at 19.3 births per 1,000 population, declining at an annual rate of 1.12% from 2016 to 2021.
However, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, and Kerala saw a decline at almost double this rate:
- Tamil Nadu: 2.35% annual decline
- Delhi: 2.23% annual decline
- Kerala: 2.05% annual decline
This accelerated drop is also visible across 13 large states and union territories, most of which include India’s more urbanised and southern regions.

Southern states such as Andhra Pradesh (1.26%), Telangana (1.67%), and Karnataka (1.68%) also showed a faster decline compared to the national average. In contrast, northern and eastern states showed much slower rates of decline:
- Rajasthan: 0.48%
- Bihar: 0.86%
- Chhattisgarh & Jharkhand: 0.98%
- Assam & Madhya Pradesh: 1.05%
- Uttar Pradesh: 1.09%
Notably, Uttarakhand was the only state to record a rise in birth rates during the same period.

The Civil Registration System (CRS) 2021 data complements the SRS findings.
While southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka reported a consistent decline in registered births since 2012, many northern and north-eastern states have seen a rise in registered births, such as:
- Bihar, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal
- Uttarakhand, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh
- Lakshadweep, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, and Nagaland
This discrepancy indicates that while population growth is stabilising in parts of southern and western India, it remains robust in several northern and north-eastern states.

The report also assessed Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR), key indicators for long-term population growth:
- India’s TFR in 2021: 2.0
- India’s GRR: 1.0
Higher-than-average TFR and GRR were reported in:
- Bihar: TFR 3.0, GRR 1.4
- Uttar Pradesh: TFR 2.7, GRR 1.3
- Rajasthan: TFR 2.4, GRR 1.2
- Madhya Pradesh: TFR 2.6, GRR 1.2
In contrast, West Bengal stood out with one of the lowest TFR (1.4) and GRR (0.7), despite an increase in registered births and relatively slow decline in birth rate.

The findings from the SRS 2021 and CRS 2021 underline India’s demographic divergence.
Southern states are heading toward population stabilisation, while some northern states may face the challenges of managing youth bulge and resource distribution for a still-growing population.
These insights are crucial for shaping targeted public policy in areas such as education, healthcare, urban planning, and employment.
They also reinforce the need for differentiated policy frameworks, given the contrasting demographic realities between states.

India’s demographic map is undergoing a complex transition, with southern states leading the way in achieving replacement-level fertility or lower, and parts of the north still exhibiting high fertility trends.
The sharp decline in birth rates in states like Tamil Nadu, Delhi, and Kerala indicates successful outreach of health, education, and awareness, but also raises concerns about ageing populations and shrinking workforces in the long run.
Understanding and acting upon these trends will be key to India’s social and economic planning for the coming decades.