India-UAE Gold Deal and India’s Gold Import Bill Concerns

India-UAE Gold Deal Latest News

• Rising oil prices due to the ongoing West Asia crisis have increased pressure on India’s economy, prompting PM Modi to urge citizens to reduce petroleum use, avoid non-essential foreign travel, and defer gold purchases to conserve foreign exchange reserves. 
• India’s heavy dependence on imported gold—around 750 tonnes annually—has long been a macroeconomic vulnerability, as higher imports widen the Current Account Deficit, weaken the rupee, and complicate inflation management during external shocks. 
• Economists suggest that trade concessions granted to the United Arab Emirates under a bilateral deal may have further accelerated gold imports, worsening concerns over India’s import bill amid economic uncertainty.

Structural Challenges in India’s Gold Supply Chain

• Rising Gold Import Bill – India’s gold import bill rose sharply in FY26, increasing nearly 25% to $71.97 billion, mainly due to soaring global gold prices rather than higher import volumes.
• Price Surge Driving Costs – Although gold imports by volume declined from 757 tonnes to 721 tonnes, gold prices surged by over 40% in the past year, significantly inflating the overall import bill.
• Heavy Import Dependence – India remains one of the world’s largest gold consumers, with annual demand of around 750 tonnes, while domestic production is extremely limited at only about 1.5 tonnes annually.
• Limitations of Existing Policy Approach – Experts argue that India’s gold management strategy has remained largely unchanged, relying mainly on demand-side measures such as import duty hikes, which have delivered limited success.

Unintended Consequences of Import Duties

• Higher import duties have often:
  • encouraged gold smuggling, 
  • diverted trade through countries with preferential tariff access, and 
  • weakened the effectiveness of official import controls. 
• Research from IIM Ahmedabad suggests that India’s persistent gold dependence remains a macroeconomic vulnerability requiring broader structural reforms rather than repeated short-term demand restrictions.

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Challenges Arising from the India-UAE Gold Trade Deal

• India’s gold import system is heavily dependent on finished bullion rather than gold doré (semi-processed gold), limiting opportunities for domestic refining and value addition.
• According to the IIM Ahmedabad study, tariff concessions under the UAE trade agreement unintentionally made importing finished bullion more attractive than importing doré, reversing the intended duty advantage for domestic processing.
• Since India largely imports gold at market prices and lacks adequate refining capacity, the shift toward finished bullion imports has increased the country’s gold import bill rather than supporting domestic value creation.
• Some countries such as Argentina, Peru, and the Dominican Republic offer lower-cost gold, but together account for only a small share of India’s imports.

Lessons from Global Gold Refining Models

• Role of Gold Refining Hubs – Countries like Switzerland, despite having no domestic gold production, have built strong gold trading positions through world-class refining infrastructure.
• Value Addition Through Refining – By processing low-cost gold doré into high-purity bullion, such countries generate significant value addition and offset trade deficit pressures through high-value exports.
• Japan’s Recycling Model – Japan has developed strong gold recycling capacity through “urban mining,” recovering precious metals from electronic waste and supporting large export volumes through multiple LBMA-certified refineries.
• India’s Refining Gap – India currently has only one LBMA-certified refinery, highlighting the need to expand refining infrastructure if it wants to reduce dependence on finished gold imports and improve trade efficiency.

Weak Gold Refining Ecosystem Hurting India

• While global gold hubs use strong refining industries to reduce import vulnerabilities, India’s gold refining sector remains underutilised and structurally weak.
• A NITI Aayog report notes that India’s duty structure has not adequately encouraged refining. The narrow duty gap between gold doré and refined gold has reduced profitability for domestic refiners, especially after GST and later duty changes.
• Although the number of gold refineries increased significantly over the years, most remain small-scale operations with limited processing capacity, preventing economies of scale and global competitiveness.
• India has only one London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)-accredited refinery, restricting access to international financial markets and limiting integration into global gold supply chains.
• The sector faces multiple barriers, including:
  • high working capital requirements, 
  • limited financing access, 
  • regulatory complexity, and 
  • prevalence of informal operations.

Global Comparisons

• Switzerland’s Gold Refining Dominance – Switzerland has become a global gold hub despite lacking domestic production, with its advanced refineries processing a major share of global gold and linking closely with financial markets.
• Hong Kong’s Strategic Role – Hong Kong serves as a key gold trading and financial gateway for China and international markets due to its integrated refining and trading ecosystem.

Need for Structural Reform

• The analysis suggests India must strengthen policy incentives, expand globally accredited refining capacity, and improve financial support if it wants to reduce gold import dependence and improve trade resilience.

Source: IE